I believe the Chinese will become increasingly intolerant of other nations, such as Australia, regulating access to resources which they regard as essential for their development particularly if they hit bad economic times. They are also currently creating huge internal expectations regarding individual wealth which could lead to massive dissatisfaction and internal unrest should they suffer an economic decline. In response, the regime could direct force either internally or externally.

Arthur Thomas should look at the reality of the USA being belligerant towards China.China is just copying what the USA/English oligarchs have been doing for decades.They want to be empirialistic just like the West.

China will not collapse since it has real productivity backing it's economy while the West has worthless derivatives ,climbing debt and a banking system creating monopoly money.

China is a major player in world affairs in everything it does. The great challenge for sucessful governance by the leaders of China is to engage in risk management practices with a more sophisticated and multi-layered set of policy tools.

It will require a brilliant strategy to eliminate, minimise or reverse the subversive potential of rampant corruption, exploding pollution, ethnic discrimination, inequitable regional economic growth, the lack of freedom of expression, no real justice and replace nationalistic rhetoric with a visionary, inclusive global leadership that will win hearts and minds all over the world.

China has ample scholars, business leaders and professionals that have the capacity to be enlisted to help steer national and local policy in directions that will achieve the right balance in China.

Unfortunately, the CCP have shown time and again that they do not possess the insight or deep wisdom to promote the right leaders who can deliver stable and respected global leadership.

As always, it will fall to people power to make the changes that Chinese citizens and the world at large can believe in. The fact that the Chinese people have so often risen up to overthrow tyrants when the moment demands is to be admired. If only that kind of grass roots engagement could happen here.

The future problems of China as seen by the author are as nothing if
he had put a declining energy regime into his consideration.

China is very aware of the coming problems as can be seen by their
attempt to at least partially corner the world market in crude oil.
Their buying into Australian coal is likewise such an indication.
It is a pity our politicians and businessmen were not just as far sighted.

In the next two or three years China will be right up against it when
supplies start getting very tight and the prices soar.
The price will not worry China to a great degree as they have made
long term fixed price agreements where they have contracts which is
why they prefer to purchase outright resources.

However where we may seen real problems is when countries arbitrarily
cancel contracts to make the resource available to that country.
Will Australia cancel Chinese gas contracts but not Japanese contracts ?

A ready made Chinese belligerence may be useful at that point.

Predictably, this essay, like the many others to date, earns the funky " RAZZIE " of the Month. Couched in pseudo economic jargon, it demonizes China, out of envy, and weasel-words his way with a collection of stats about the real-estate bubble, which is yesterday's news, and more indicative of a closeted mind, than an " objective analysis "!

Last month (25/2/10) I attended a timely expose at the prestigious Lowry Institute ( Oz think-tank ) where an old China-hand ( 31 years ) expounded his pellucid views of the hiccups China is experiencing, and how in his interpretation, we should be wary. Very wary.

Mr Dines much belabored the Tiananmen Square, Taiwan, Dalai Lama, pollution, shortages etc, and questioned the ' sustainability ' of China's meteoric rise. He concluded with:" our little economy is inextricably hitched to China's success. Our interest, and those of our Allies and Trading partners are diverging. Evidently, he possessed insight. Bully for him.

The seemingly excess of vacant Property in Szechuan, outer Mongolia, Beijing, Shanghai etc is no indication the housing market is a barometer of GFC, and growth Economy on the nose ! The newly arrived mega-rich, have long known that apart from accumulating Gold bullion, RE is definitely the long term investment vehicle. Paper money, particularly the RMB, is intrinsically worthless, whereas bricks-an-mortar will outlive us all. Strikingly, income growth still outpacing housing prices, besides 85% owners are investors or future residents waiting for schools, hospitals etc before moving in. These enclaves are reserved for the elite oligarchy, replete with toilets that flush, saunas that actually function, and electronic wizardry that keep intruders, and riff-raff at bay.

There is no denying millions have been displaced ( 3 Gorge's, Olympics, rerouting the Yangtse ) poverty, malnutrition, corruption etc are pandemic, but then who is blameless ?

The Current Account Surplus (2009) in merchandise alone reached US $ 119 B. A fall of 14 %, whereas in the service sector, it attained US $ 134.6 B. Remarkably, according to Asia Times, for 17 years, C has amassed Foreign Exchange Reserves, toppling $ 1,2 Trillion..

growing @ US $ 18 B monthly !

Largest exporter globally,China could well double this every 5 years. Hu Jingtao predicts the collapse of the greenback when hyperinflation implodes..even allowing a 3% devaluation against the RMB.

Expatriates, for seemingly myopic provocativeness, always dwell on Tibet, Taiwan, human rights, and regurgitated Hilary Clinton's propaganda rhetoric.

Tibet in 1720 and 1911 was under China's control. 1950, it was reabsorbed by Red China. Historically, it has always been part of China. The Dalai Lama lives in luxury, mostly abroad, not like the common Buddist Monk, on abstinence and people's charity. Does anybody really give a yak ?

Taiwan was sacrificed to the ruthless Japanese Army 1895, and until Chiang Kai Shek accepted control ending WWII. Technically, it remains Chinese. Most Taiwanese have relatives on the mainland, and although they claim autonomy, trade and commerce is bilateral. Most Taiwanese consider themselves, as one China. Only the Foreign Press believe anything different.

The much vaunted US $ 5.3 B sales of obsolescent military hardware, is well short of Taiwan's wish list, including F18's,Virginia Ballistic missile subs, ICM missiles, spares and support. Taipeh is still barred by Trade sanctions to the USA. To try to exploit China's division's with Taiwan is gratuitous, truculent, hog wash.

Fulongong, human righteousness ? The World is weighted down with dissidents - mostly psychos, mental retards, and ex mental asylum inmates rejected by both, close family and Govt Agencies.

That Clive Palmer negotiated the biggest coal deal this century, delivering 30 million tonnes for 20 years is a Financial coup unheralded. That " can-do-everything-Rudd ", for all his Mandarin skills, and coziness with Deng Xio Ping, etc was caught with his pants down, speaks volumes. Where was DFAT, Smith, Gillard, while " yum sing, and yum cha " was going on ?

Need, I tell ?
Ask Peter, the insular Garrett.