Pundits in both The Guardian and the Financial Times are forecasting the demise of the EU in its present form.

See:

GREECE, SCHENGEN, NATO – IT'S TIME TO ADMIT THE EUROPEAN DREAM IS OVER BY MARTIN KETTLE:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jun/23/greece-schengen-nato-eu

and:

EUROPE’S RETURN TO WESTPHALIA BY PHILIP STEPHENS

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e019ba34-9dc9-11e0-b30c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Q9XN7W7I

What is certain is that anti-Muslim sentiment is growing in Europe. Here is one example of this phenomenon:

>>… "If they want to turn Stockholm, Gothenburg or Malmo into a Scandinavian Beirut with clan wars, honour killings and gang rapes, let them do it. We can always put a barrier on the Øresund bridge," said Pia Kjaersgaard, leader of Denmark's People's party recently. On Wednesday, she got her way.

Denmark is unilaterally to introduce border and customs controls on its borders with Germany and Sweden…>

See:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/15/will-hutton-populist-right-gaining-europe

Europe could become a continent of relatively small inward-looking countries more concerned with their own problems than with the outside world.

The EU is one of Israel’s major trading partners. On the face of it the fracturing of the EU would seem to be bad news for Israel.

Yet it is not that simple. The Left in Europe is turning against Israel. Some would argue it already has. The Muslim vote in many EU countries is growing in significance and for many European Muslims policy towards Israel is a first order issue. There is always the danger that the EU could change from major trading partner to leader of the call for sanctions against Israel.

That would leave Israel a tiny isolated Jewish enclave at the Eastern end of the Mediterranean.

If Europe fractures chances are some countries will maintain an anti-Israel stance while others will be pro-Israel or neutral.

I cannot foresee the future. However on the whole I like Israel’s chances better with a fractured Europe than with a united one.

NB: I am not going to comment on whether Israel is a great democracy or the epitome of all evil. I’m asking a simple question of geopolitics. Would the fracturing of Europe benefit Israel?

what about the...*people of the pigs[portugal/ire-land/greece/spain/italy...or of palistein]

you know...the ones suffering..
so elites can get their debts paid for by the 'other'..people

its neither good..nor bad..'for israel'
germanic...*blame/shame/guilt..will ALLWAYS favour
the israel..lobbies adgenda...

[its not as if the mossad
asumed the bankers debts[bets]..

soon greece will become like palestein?
or the spanish return to their muslim roots?

israel is not a member of the eu
and as you assure us..no jews own banking

my opinion is it wont make any difference
[to those who DIDNT throw good money after bad]

its not as if a euro has any real backing under it
it was just a way to keep the deutche mark from inflating...its workers pay beyond where the workers can afford that they made

the eu...allways waas just too clever by half
a way for more eu..beuro-rockrats..to get into yet another slush fund

the same as the gone mad bankers
who thought by owning the mint..they could steal anything
with paper promises..[fiat]..that..the bankers hold the global franchise over..

this is a case of bad works
producing their fruit

nothing good can come
from doing a bad thing
[oh i see the link now]

Dear Stephenlmeyer,

You said; "That would leave Israel a tiny isolated Jewish enclave at the Eastern end of the Mediterranean."

Mate, please get your proverbial hand off it. Israel is one of the most militarized nations in the world with a few hundred nukes at the ready and the slavish backing of the greatest military power the world has ever seen, one that will wield considerable power for many years to come.

What should be far more concerning to the rest of us is the hoops countries have traditionally been made to jump through to gain membership of the EU will disappear. Look at what Turkey is prepared to do to gain membership. The challenges to tackle corruption is a case in point. A state must raise its governorship to a certain standard to be considered.

It will be a great pity if the fallout from American hypercapitalism is allowed to destroy something that held great promise even considering its faults.

I for one will mourn its passing if it goes.

Wait- we are discussing how the drastic alteration of the largest multinational cooperative AND the impact of Islamic migrants- involving almost all of Western Europe; and we're supposed to care how it impacts Israel's foreign relations?
As opposed to... say... the domestic impacts on Europe itself?
I mean, I like Israel- but if the USA were to go into recession, I wouldn't exactly be wondering how this would affect exports in Japan- at least until I got some answers about the USA.

Or are we under the impression that Europe is some self-imploding liberal haven that is slowly killing itself by its endless appeasement of Muslims, and is thus a lost cause?
And these "Muslim voters" aren't exactly getting their way very much; most of Europe is taking quite a tough stand against Islam- and France, despite having the largest Muslim demographic (a measly 10 percent)- somehow managed to introduce burqa bans, causing many burqa-needing fundamentalists to actually leave France and avoid travelling through it. Then of course there is Denmark's refusal to apologize for the cartoons, Switzerland banning minarets, "Muslim" Bosnia and Albania deporting and arresting Mujehadin who overstayed their visas back in the Yugoslav wars, Geert Wilders being cleared for 'anti Islamic speech', and most countries in the EU putting up some substantial border controls around the EU. I'd say the Islamic 'hold' of Europe isn't so much exaggerated as much as it is blatantly false.

I would take a gander that you get your news from a Murdoch outlet?

Hi King Hazza

No, as a matter of fact I rarely get any news from a Murdoch outlet for the simple reason that there's rarely any news on any Murdoch outlet.

You write:

>>Wait- we are discussing how the drastic alteration of the largest multinational cooperative AND the impact of Islamic migrants- involving almost all of Western Europe; and we're supposed to care how it impacts Israel's foreign relations?>>

To tell the truth I often wonder why Israel gets so much airtime on Australian media, and on Online Opinion, in the first place. I would have thought that events in next door Indonesia or in China and India are of much more moment to Australia than anything happening in Israel. But for some reason news about Indonesia, China and India never evokes the kind of emotive responses that the mere mention of "Israel" does.

If you'll recall some time ago I hypothesised that many Australians were afflicted with a disease called "Israel Obsession Disorder" or IOD.

But still, for those who are interested in Israel this is a valid question. Would the weakening if not actual disintegration of the EU benefit Israel?

Personally I think the likelihood is that it would.

What do you think?

It does appear, stevenlmeyer, that at least one perennial poster suffers from IOD.
Thanks for the links, BTW., although I do share Hazza's sense of priorities.

i will ignore being disconected from the web
just in clicking post...and try to reply the issue

[ignoring also the inner voice
saying issue of satan...as in spawn]

[blaming that on the reason
for even being on the web tonight...
being i didnt feel like watching the sbs doco tonight
about the stalinist jewish docter conspiricy]

anyhow steven..you said..""I hypothesised
that many Australians were afflicted with a disease
called "Israel Obsession Disorder" or IOD.""

mate we cant turn on the tv..[or radio]..
without hearing about the..'poor me'..people..
or without watching the semite looking people flooding the media
[poor them]..

if we got an obesion disorder...im sure that there is a jewish phycologist that can give us a frontal lobotomy..to 'help us'..get over even noticing..the all too blooming obvious/let alone the delusional

as you say...""But still,for those
who are interested in Israel this is a valid question.""

how can a generalisation..of the goyum
somehow become a valid question..for those intrested
in a patheticly tiny rogue state in the middle east

""Would the weakening
if not actual disintegration of the EU benefit Israel?""

mate it will be the goal
of those who looted the treasuries of the eu
to see the whole scam simply..disappear into histry
[as the nerxt lot of looters...move on..to the safe/homeland

or other safe harbours
with their stolen booty...leaving the indigenants
to pay off the wholesale theft..or their services and industries...

plus a mortgauge
upon their cultural heritage

such is the harvest...
of the brief scam..called the eu

eu
peuw

let who would be decieved
be decieved

Dear Steven,

From my understanding Israel has a very strong trading partnership with EU. They also have several signed agreements. The Israeli Mission to the EU on 24 May 2011 -I believe resulted in very positive outcomes. I can't see how this will change at all in the future. Israel seems to know exactly what it wants from the EU and how to achieve that. Try the following website just for interest:

http://eu.mfa.gov.il/mfm/web/main/missionhome.asp?MissionID-68

fullfilling the dreams of the 5 th reiche
[multiheaded hydra][the wwwhoor of babble on]

""Personally I think the likelihood is that it would.""

personally thats the least of concern

what is one million...
to hundreds of millions..of the eu
undergoing the slow bleed of...''AUSTERITy measures''..

orded by yet other beurocratic
public servant slush fund ngo's
and banking/law cartels...

running near anything globally

""What do you think?""

i say tell steven he is dreaming

just like those dreaming up the nightmare of gaza
and the heightmare's of the ghool-an heights

or an israel...man decreed state..
resisting even the implied will of god
[love good by loving neighbour]

let them live behind their prison world
a blinkerd materially self serving people...
who dare think..they are the only people of god..

make peace
not pieces

in the end
its the ones
with the higher spiritual good
not the most material gains...

nor those seeking
the adulation of mere men

or symbols
secluded by exclusion
setting others up to fail
and somehow allways avoiding going to jail

steven, not sure anything is new here. As a “progressive” media outlet the Guardian has consistently failed to recognize a whole raft of European realities. Our humble OLO has discussed many of these issues for years. So the Guardian is finally recognizing the end of the rake when the handle hits them between the eyes.

More of the entities created in Europe are predictably heading for tears. The UN and most of its creations are biting their own limbs off, whilst we are told all is fine.

The EU is broke several times over because of circular funding abuses and tokenistic policies. Many policies are going into “thrashing” mode as they are turned 108 degrees on a daily basis. When member States start to openly renege on their immigration and refugee obligations it is time to stand well clear.

NATO has been a military joke for years and is punching well below its weight, as budget cuts and austerity shred its capability and dictate participation. OPEC, of which many EU countries are members, is heading for trouble as members break ranks to get more oil into the market to get more revenue.

The winners IMHO, the USA, Norway, Russia, many dictators, Israel and Iran.

The two most pressing issues for Europe have now been highlighted, Energy security and debt. Well, what a surprise?

Well done the Guardian, you have dragged yourself screaming into the 1980’s.

Around sixty percent of Israel's exports are from high-tech industry, and much of this comes from security devices. A fractured Europe consisting of countries not operating en bloc and in unified cooperation may provide Israel with even more scope for proffering high-tech security products. They are also the world's fourth largest arms manufacturer.

Airport security and surveillance technology, emanating from the war of terror, has been supplied in large part by Israel. The world's insecurity has been a boon to Israel's export industry.

csteele

While Turkey is still going through the motions I think they’ve given up on joining the EU. Truth is they’re doing very well outside the EU.

Lexi

For now Israeli trade with the EU is flourishing. But I think the relationship is quite brittle and, in the end, it may be a case of having too many eggs in one basket.

Eventually India and China will probably overtake the EU as trading partners for Israel. Both countries appear to have insatiable appetites for Israeli and technology and both are sources of students for Israel’s university sector.

But, like all countries, Israel is a prisoner of geography. A Europe united against Israel could pose insurmountable geo-strategic challenges. Look at a map.

BTW Israel spends more as a percentage of GDP on R & D than any other country in the world. It's something Australia ought to take to heart. Like all minerals booms the one we're currently experiencing will end in a bust. What then?

Poirot

Just so.

A fractured Europe may present Israel with increased trading options while lessening the POLITICAL RISK inherent in a united left-controlled Europe.

Spindoc

You think the Guardian has made it as far as the eighties? One column doth not an eighties decade make.

As a whole to me they still seem firmly stuck in the seventies.;-)

stevenlmeyer, your comment "Europe could become a continent of relatively small inward-looking countries more concerned with their own problems than with the outside world" really rang true for me.

I considered myself generally well versed in the world's geopolitical situation, but over the past 4 years I have become distracted by the sort of social, economic, and political disaster issues that I was witnessing overseas when overnight they arrived on my doorstep, sorry stevenlmeyer I have no time for others, but I can't wait until we get insular lke the Europeans.

steven, the UN will be getting $1 Bn a year from Ozzie tax payers under our CO2 tax. I hope the spend it wisely. Maybe it will be worth the money if they stay out of our region?

stevenlmeyer, no problem;

To answer your question- I really don't think it would at all, actually;
The EU exists solely as an interactive medium between member states- those outside are only affected by the performance of the Euro and therefore ability to trade with it, and otherwise a few passport issues handled at EU level passport standards, import standards, etc;
The countries inside are very much the same political entities to those outside.
Or to put it another way- the EU is nothing more than a club that Israel isn't a part of- as it is not a political force, its impact on Israel is zero.

On the issue of the EU itself- it is clear that just like any other large entity, it starts realizing its limitations in the member's desired function of this union (more integrated, more political, vs sovereign states with a Schengen agreement)- and of course differences of standards. Not to mention how far its members want to expand (considering now that the only direction left to expand is the Middle East- nobody is interested anymore- even majority-secular countries like Albania, Bosnia and Turkey would only stand a slim chance- and any further is simply not going to happen).
So the EU, to continue existing, would simply scale back its function to a Schengen zone with some mutual benefits for all members- which is exactly what it should be.

Shouldn't the question be, How good is Israel for the world ?

LOL Individual

Following my usual policy I am NOT going to debate the merits and demerits of Israel.

However your post does open up an interesting line of thought. We can pose the question:

How good is [insert a pet aversion] for the world?

I’ll leave it to your imagination what my pet aversions are.

King Hazza

Perhaps the EU will return to its roots of simply being a common market with no political pretensions. That might be a good idea.

Right now it appears to me that, the Leftie punditocracy notwithstanding, most Europeans are more concerned about the perceived threat from Islam than about Israel. I am astounded by the continued rise of the Sweden Democrats in the opinion polls. See:

http://www.thelocal.se/34410/20110617/

It would be fair to call the Sweden Democrats the “Geert Wilders on steroids” party.

I am also intrigued by the about turn of the Archbishop of Canterbury. At the accession of Rowan Williams I thought we were going to see the most anti-Israel Anglican primate ever. He seemed ready to lead what I can only call an anti-Israel crusade.

Then he got diverted by the issue of homosexuality and gay priests.

Now he has been compelled by the evangelical wing of the church to focus some attention on Muslim persecution of Christians. See:

http://www.radioaustralianews.net.au/stories/201106/3244124.htm?desktop

>>Dr Williams, the Archbishop of Canterbury - and head of the country's Protestant Anglican branch - claims more Christians have been killed and churches burned in Egypt than is generally known.

He also said life is unsustainable for Christians in northern Iraq, and tensions in Syria are nearing breaking point as some in the region use the chaos to attack Christian minorities.

Dr Williams said the violent extremism in northern Iraq amounts to ethnic cleansing.>>

It would be naïve to fail to recognise that European concerns about Islam blunt anti-Israel sentiment.

No, Stevenlmeyer. A fractured Europe is bad for Israel.

Israel at this time needs a strong and united Europe that will help it to come back to its senses, that will give it a clear message and guidance: "this is acceptable, this is not".

Yuyutsu wrote:

>>Israel at this time needs a strong and united Europe that will help it to come back to its senses,…>>

I’ll take that as an implied value judgement about Israel.

I never engage in debate about the merits and demerits of Israel.

However I will say that right now I don't think Europe is in a position to give anyone guidance on anything. They're too concerned about their internal problems.

Dear stephenlmeyer,

Even if Turkey doesn't join the EU its human rights improvements have been undeniable. Banning the death penalty for instance.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3384667.stm

The EU insistence on a high human rights standard is in my view been a defining part of its legacy thus far and should not be dismissed lightly.

Dear individual,

Perhaps part of the answer to your question might lie in what it would take for Israel to gain membership of the EU. Getting rid of its death penalty would need to occur although it is purely tokenistic now anyway.

Would Israel's human rights record pass the muster?

Dear stevenlmeyer,

You asked a question - I gave you a straightforward answer.

It's nothing to do with merits or demerits of Israel, it's all about caring for Israel and asking how it can be helped.

Israel is currently besieged by its politicians who tragically lead it down the drain. I don't like to see that happening and I believe that Europe could help Israel, alas if only it were more united.

You wrote: "I don't think Europe is in a position to give anyone guidance on anything" and I accept this sad truth, sad indeed for Israel.

The best thing for all European nations is to exist the EURO and get their own Govts to create the new money to equal GDP+ inflation debt free.Get rid of the IMF,Bank of International Settlements and World Bank.They don't need them.

csteele

I think it very unlikely that Israel would ever be accepted into the EU. Since its founding in 1948 it has existed in what is effectively a perpetual war zone. The EU would not wish to become embroiled in the complications this entails.

On the other hand, thanks to various agreements with the EU, Israel enjoys most of the economic advantages that accrue to members. From the Israeli perspective full membership would bring few additional benefits.

Now here is a better idea.

How about a GRAND BARGAIN under which Israel AND ITS NEIGHBOURS all become members of the EU on condition that they stop fighting?

Of course it will never happen. Anti-Muslim sentiment has effectively put a stop to Turkey's accession ambitions. I doubt the EU elites could persuade their electorates to accept Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, "Palestine" and Jordan on top of Turkey. There'd be a rebellion.

In fact I doubt there will be many more states joining the EU for the foreseeable future though Serbia might just squeeze in.

But Muslim states?

I can't see it for a few decades if ever.

Any situation in Europe is good for Israel. They've always taken advantage of all situations and played them to their own advantage.
Europe united will contribute to Israel out of historic guilt, Europe divided will contribute to Israel out of economic need. No matter which way Israel comes out on top. Israel has played its Arab neighbours one against the other for half a century and survived. So it will continue to do so no matter what the world situation.

Dear Aquarius,

You seem to believe that Israel is invincible.

Yes, the Arabs are no big deal and the Europeans too are impotent, but who then will save Israel from its greatest enemy... Israel!?

Quem deus vult perdere, prius dementat!

Dear Yuyutsu,

Impressive that you read Euripides. Medea is such a powerful play.
Wow I'm now really impressed!

Yuyutsu don't forget that Israel is a fraction of the total support base around the world that has its fingers in the political and economic environment of the leading nations.

Israel manufactures and sells military hardware to any nation willing to pay the price which guarantees them the right support in the UN.

Without that control a small nation such as Israel would never survive. No matter what happens in Europe there's still the rest of the world to contend with. If we forget Europe and America - there is
Africa and South America, that would be more than willing to continue
to support Israel by whatever means Israel demands.

Aquarius wrote:

>>No matter which way Israel comes out on top.>>

Well, that’s an encouraging thought.

;-)