Scott Ritter, the former Iraq WMD inspector who predicted that no WMDs would be found by the invading US forces has written in the Guardian about the latest Iran nuclear "revelations":

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/sep/25/iran-secret-nuclear-plant-inspections

As he points out, Iran is following the letter of its agreements and it seems to be the west that is whipping up hysteria over the Iranian nuclear plant. This has me more worried than any Iranian ambitions. Why are we being made to worry about Iran? Is public opinion being softened up for an attack? Is this to distract us from the economic situation that is expected to worsen soon?

Michael's on the money. There are many "rogue states" that pose a far greater threat than Iran, but Iran threatens Israel, and therefore the bizarre religious prophecies that underpin American political behaviour.

A good article reflecting the technical realities and uncertainties as well as the NATO and US domestic political debate.

It is predictable that Israel is the stauchist critic of Iran's nuclear weapon's program yet it is Israel that considers itself exempt from any of the international sanctions (UN and IAEA) that it wants imposed on Iran. Some timely US espionage has established that Isreal not only possesses at least 100 nuclear weapons but most are of the more dangerous thermonuclear (H-Bomb) type. Israel has not developed long range Jericho missiles for mere high explosive intent.

So with the above in mind Iran is:

- nervous about its nuclear Israeli neighbour

- nervous that it will be next in line to be "liberated" by the US (oil being an unmentionable no-no in the US press), and

- it fears that its Sunni neighbours have the wealth and connections with nuclear armed Pakistan to organise a nuclear capability in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and a future Iraqi administration at short notice.

Iran would still remember when (Sunni dominated Arab) Iraq fired Scuds and (seperately) dropped nerve gas bombs on Iranian territory.

All this spells an Iranian need for a nuclear capability.

Of course if Israel disposed of its high profile "secret" nuclear arsenal then Iran would probably not need to consider building its own smaller capability.

Pete
(most of this 2006 post still holds http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2006/01/bombing-iran-where-how-and-when.html )

You are spot on the money Pete.

The dopey Israelis will attack Iran and that will lead to a nuclear holocaust in the mid east.

I think the Iranians are quite a different kettle of fish to their Arab neighbours. I think the Israelis don't really know what they are dealing with and are trying to cast the Iranians as agressors when in fact they seem quite content to remain within their own borders and manipulate their neighbours with intrigue and intelligence, much like the west has done for most of the past 100 years ... so unlike other aggressive land stealing oppresive occupiers in the mid east who think violence is the best weapon.

The western media has been sucked in by the Israeli propaganda and totally misunderstands exactly what is occurring. The balance of power is changing in the mid east and in an effort to retain previous it's ascendency Israel is trying to cling to yesterdays methods to manipulating events.

They are failling.

The Israelis here are not trying to undermine loose and bitterly divided sectarian groups as in Palestine and Lebanon. They are dealing with a cohesive nation with a very long and proud history, who obviously have developed the means to at least fight back against if not overcome entirely the usual Israeli aggression.

In their usual arrogant heavy handed way they will try to bully the Iranians and eventually their frustration at not being able to control Iran will lead them down to a military option. Iran will seek retribution when that occurs.

The Israelis recent land stealling shows they have foregone the opportunity and lost the intellectual reasonableness required to reach a peaceful settlement with their neighbours. They will cause their own anniliation in the mid east.