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Reserve should hold rates - for now : Comments
By Henry Thornton, published 1/9/2009If current trends persist, the move to a more normal cash rate of around 6 per cent should occur briskly and in 50-basis-point chunks.
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As you yourself have noted, total labour underutilization (in the form of underemployment) is rather worse than official unemployment figures depict.
Large numbers of full time jobs have been replaced by part-time employment and with Australians so heavily mortgaged, low interest rates are the only thing between them and foreclosure.
Of course, it is also a neo-liberal article of faith that deficit spending necessarily crowds out private sector investment and drives up borrowing costs when the fact is that the standard teachings of the textbooks stay the same while the world moves on and new realities overtake the old models - which continue to be taught as Darwinian fact regardless.
I pointed out to The Australian's economics editior Micheal Sutchbury that for well over six months he and his ilk have been hollering that all the government spending would crowd out private investment and then just the other day he prints an article that purports to show that business investment is taking off in this country - while a good sized deficit is being run. For some reason he has stopped printing my comments.