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What is next in Iran? : Comments
By James Phillips, published 2/7/2009The US should lead an international coalition to pressure Tehran to unclench its fist from around the throats of its own people.
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Think tanks have beome a refuge for wannabe academics who are not prepared to accept the endless peer review and criticism that is an essential part of true scholarship. Instead, they go to places like the Heritage Foundation or the Hoover Institute or our very own IPA, where they can give each other pretentious titles like 'senior research fellow' while churning out shoddy pieces informed by ideology.
This piece is typical. First, it claims to be 'realist', implying that anyone who disagrees is not. Nevertheless, the author doesn't cite any evidence for his tendentious assertions, he just states them as if they were incontrovertible.
Having staked his claim to be a realist, what is Phillips' policy presciption? More sanctions on Iran. An actual realist might point out that short of military action it would be hard for the USA to impose any sanctions more severe than the ones it already has, and they haven't had any appreciable impact.
Philips' other suggestion is that other countries should crank up their sanctions. Once again, the empirical evidence suggests that this is extremely unlikely to occur.
In other words, Mr Realist's measures have a slim to zero chance of ever being adopted or of having the desired effect even if they were. And what's his 'realistic' solution if his proposals don't work? A missile shield while 'mobilising an international coalition'. Nothing but hard realism there then.
The piece of course is not intended as a serious contribution to policy discussion. It's just one more bit of noise in the continuing campaign to present Obama as some sort of traitor to American values who secretly supports the Islamofascists. Fortunately, the evidence that us true realists tend to rely on suggests the campaign is gaining zero traction with Americans apart from those already convinced, or indeed with anyone else.