Peter - you were quite right to point out that many scientists seemed to have succumbed to peer pressure in these matters but I think you will find, if you read the public statements that many of these scientists are making the only reasonable to conclusion is that they have flipped. They have abandonded any objectivity and become simply activists.
As you noted water vapour is vastly more important as a greenhouse gas than CO2. Yet the models assume that a small amount of heating from CO2 will trigger a large amount of warming from water vapour. This is an assumption but both it and the output of the models has been presented as virtually proven facts. These results have been defended, often violently, in the face of some contrary evidence about cloud cover and the recent mild cooling trend. As I said, the scientists have flipped.
The stuff you present about pollution affecting rainfall is far more compelling than the climate forecasts..

I am sceptical of Brumby's capacity to do anything for the climate, water shortage!
Why not buy a cleaner coal? because it comes from some other state?
SA piped it's irrigation water years ago, the state of Victoria's channels is a disgrace. As is the condition under which power is produced, brown coal. While he lets water leak from the channels and pollutes the air the SA irrigators and the Coorong go without.
Time for change Victoria.
fluff
PS a very good appraisal of the state of the climate, even if he's not a Skeptic!

Peter,

Thank you for an interesting article. I am a anthropogenic (CO2)climate change skeptic, however I have been considering another human factor that could explain changes in precipitation in relation to mountains.

Where deforestation has been considerable, I would understand that changes to humidity (relative and absolute) have occurred. The loss of transpiration from forests must reduce the intensity of the water cycle between the earth and sky and the precipitation that occurs in mountainous regions.

A television presentation of some years ago pointed out the reduction in precipitation around Mt. Kilimanjaro and the retreat of a glacier. The lowering of regional humidity would assist in the sublimation of ice contained in the glacier ie ice does have a vapour pressure.

Note: East Africa has little industry to produce the pollutants that are found in S. E. Australia and China and cause the effects that Dr. Rosenfield has suggested.

Regards,

Mike Clarke (Dr.)
M.E.T.T.S. Pty Ltd.

Peter - good article, it's a sad reflection on the current state of science and Australian society that it even needed to be written.

You haven't yet suffered the usual storm of indignation and scorn seen on OLO, I'm surprised your reputation has not been sullied and your head not been called for, nor has anyone yet insisted you are in the pay of big oil or evil polluters.

'Scientists, like all other people, need to remain open to competing views and avoid the danger of being locked into tunnel vision through group obsession, which is what global warming seems to have become.'

You have as much chance of getting the Taliban to denounce the Koran as you have of the true believers admitting they swallowed pseudo science when it comes to gw. Their dogmas look sillier everyday as temperatures drop as carbon emissions increase.

So why was the last 10 years the hottest on record?
People keep on persisting on saying it is getting cooler but no facts are shown.
2008 was in the top 10 hottest years.

Are you telling me that NASA are wrong.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/