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The credit crisis : Comments
By Nicholas Gruen, published 20/5/2008The credit crisis reminds us that private competition only transforms self-interest into social good in a properly functioning market.
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The new deal did not end the Depression. With the US sinking into depression again in 1937 after a shallow recovery, it was the coming war and the militarisation of the economy, plus the war itself and the destruction of capital, which laid the groundwork for the long post war boom. The permanent arms economy after the second world war then slowed down the increase in the organic composition of capital and hence among other things slowed down the tendency for the rate of profit to fall.
What if the sub-prime loan crisis is an example of the market at work? The world is awash with capital looking for somewhere to invest profitably. The fact that profit rates may be lower now than in the 1960s means some capital looks to high return (but high risk) investments.
Sub -prime loans, built on a business model of expanding employment, wages and housing process, offered just such high returns. Unfortunately the model didn't work - minimum wages in the US have fallen in real terms, unemployment began to rise and as more and more loans got called in after the honeymoon period ended, prices began to fall for the first time in forty years in the US.
Better regulation is not going to curb this drive for higher returns for the likes of hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds and other investors, or indeed in the productive sector either. It is at the very heart of the capitalist system.
Would better regulation have saved Bear Stearns? What has saved that disaster so far was the Fed's guarantee to JP Morgan of 30 bn of doubtful and bad debts. As the head Fed Bernanke said (or words to this effect) if one goes down we all go down. His rescue action may only stave off the inevitable.
I'd be interested in knowing what is happening in the productive sector of the US economy.