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Tough times ahead for Australia's Defence Force : Comments
By Gary Brown, published 27/3/2008The 2020 Summit: we can barely begin to assess the security implications that climate change will place on Australian defence.
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Never mind that there has been no warming since 1998. Never mind that even the spivs at the IPCC have now substantially reduced their projections of sea level rise to about 18cm for the next century. And even this "scarenario" is based on the assumption that all the Chinese, all the Indians (including the untouchables), all the Indonesians and all the Pakistanis will get to drive SUVs in a Los Angeles style mega sprawl and it's attendant 20t CO2/capita emissions footprint.
Apply the French/Swiss/Swedish model of development based on nuclear power, which both the Indians and Chinese have clearly already opted to pursue and the emissions for these countries will level off at only 6t CO2/capita.
And at those emission levels, with realistic projections of wealth distribution and housing patterns, even 18cm of sea level rise over the next century is pure fantasy. And that sends Al Gore's predictions of sea level refugees into the garbage bin of history where it always belonged.
So where does that leave the ADF? It leaves them locked in that age old battle against the wonkers, the tightarses and the gullible who have always muddied the waters of sound military planning.