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Asean at the crossroads : Comments
By B A Hamzah, published 31/1/2023Centrifugal forces in Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines spell trouble.
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Posted by diver dan, Tuesday, 31 January 2023 7:39:53 AM
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Asean needs to understand the sitting on fence hurts balls.
That they need to belong to one camp or the other. that China needs its trade relations with the west to simply survive/feed her people. And is limited in what she can claim as new territory without being crippled by trade sanctions and maybe carbon tariffs etc. China also needs to understand that a big stick is more powerful when not used and held in a velvet glove. Moreover, it also needs to understand one catches many more flies with a teaspoon of honey than a whole jar of vinegar! I mean. e.g., Tyson won many fights but few real friends or respect! I mean, who among us admires brutality or unchained brute force/the law of the jungle! Alan B. Posted by Alan B., Tuesday, 31 January 2023 11:19:39 AM
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"These external issues are impinging on Asean’s internal cohesion. If not handled properly, the US-China rivalry could wreck Asean’s unity."
- This result seems to be a foregone conclusion. "There are forces at work within Asean that may undermine or usurp the twin principles of consensus and non-interference in domestic affairs." - There's a lot of foreign interference in many of these nations domestic affairs already. "The ongoing political crisis in Myanmar, for example, points to deeper malaise. The miliary junta, which usurped power from an elected civilian government almost two years ago, remains at odds with Asean, which has been nudging the regime to re-embrace peace and restore public order. Buoyed by recent support from Russia, China and India which abstained from voting at last week’s Security Council’s meeting demanding an end to violence and the release of all political prisoners, Myanmar will continue to defy the earlier Asean’s Five-Point consensus." Now tell us the real story of whats going on over there, or maybe this person can instead? US-backed Terror Targets Myanmar's Upcoming Elections http://youtu.be/Tsu35R7n0XM?t=1765 Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 31 January 2023 12:04:48 PM
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If ASEAN fails to form a NATO like alliance China will swallow up the loose ASEAN association country by country. Only Vietnam and Singapore, within ASEAN, are arming themselves efficiently to defend themselves. In Singapore's case with Swedish and German submarines, French and locally built warships and US F-16, F-15 and F-35 jetfighters.
Meanwhile other ASEAN countries have occasional border skirmishes between themselves Thailand vs Cambodia, Indonesia vs Malaya in the early 1960s, Vietnam invading Cambodia in the 1970s. Many ASEAN countries have long had conflicting claims in the South China Sea, especially over potential undersea oil/gas and fishing rights. ++++++++++++++ As to the author's comment: "Similarly, overall, the Asean countries are terrified by the US policy to station nuclear weapons in the Indo Pacific region via its Australia, United Kingdom, and US (AUKUS) military program which it insists as necessary to deter China. Some member nations in fact view the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region as more dangerous than the military threat from China, given that the threat of proliferation would change the balance of power equation and would go against what Asean has championed for through its Nuclear- Weapons Free Zone Treaty since 1995." The only thing between ASEAN and Russian or Chinese domination has been American, UK, French and Australian conventional weapons and US nuclear weapons since the late 1940s. More on Australia's perfect right to adequately defend itself, in alliance with the US, UK and NZ, later. Posted by Maverick, Tuesday, 31 January 2023 8:34:36 PM
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The precedence for a nuclear war was set by the USA in 1945. Its really “ anything goes” from here, as is becoming obvious.