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The Forum > Article Comments > US Election 2020: are the analytics correct? > Comments

US Election 2020: are the analytics correct? : Comments

By Charles Essery, published 4/11/2020

A friend runs bets for a small group of us who are interested in world politics. In 2016, I was a newbie-maverick by forecasting Brexit, the UK Election and worst of all (in friends eyes) the Trump win.

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Spot on again Prof Essery. The "Deporables" and us "climate realists" salute you. Expect some flack and insults form the luvies, hop you are wearing your hard had, stab jacket and don't drink water unless its from a sealed bottle!
Posted by Alison Jane, Wednesday, 4 November 2020 7:13:53 AM
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You get lots of fake soothsayers who only After Event (A) say they Predicted Event (A).

All one can see is the author hasn't clearly predicted whether Trump or Biden will win.

For a bolder, more useful, prediction on OLO see "Trump Tipped To Win Election" at http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=9299&page=0
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 4 November 2020 7:55:17 AM
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I just wonder if there is some wishful thinking here.

First of all there is Biden's big lead in the polls coupled with a very large postal vote, which will favour the Democrats. Secondly there is the COVID factor.

In Oz and NZ, the Nervous Nellie factor led voters to re-elect incumbent governments, that adopted risk-averse lockdown policies. Trump has been erratic on COVID. In particular he has played down the virus (maybe too heavily for many)and ridiculed his advisor Dr Fauci. I think this will cost him dearly, even though I personally don't favour lockdowns and other economy-destroying responses.

While I think Biden is a poor candidate (and that his VP candidate is dangerous) the reality surely must be that Trump is a very long shot.
Posted by Bren, Wednesday, 4 November 2020 8:00:22 AM
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"All one can see is the author hasn't clearly predicted whether Trump or Biden will win."

HUH?

The author wrote..."I have declared Trump to win.."
Posted by mhaze, Wednesday, 4 November 2020 8:06:40 AM
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Sick of hearing this stuff, but a half an hour ago I read that Big Tech against Trump in the form of You Tube has deleted 300 pro-Trump features and advertisements.
Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 4 November 2020 8:17:33 AM
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Well yes - there is that mhaze

Maybe the author has used the week old prediction "Trump Tipped To Win Election"

at http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=9299&page=0

by the illustrious "plantagenet, Thursday, 29 October 2020" already :)
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 4 November 2020 8:24:42 AM
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