I'm sorry David, can't agree with your highly flawed analysis?

I think the Labor vote will be higher than you've allowed, thanks mainly to an improved Green vote and flow of preferences?

I see Jackie and Glen probably surviving, with Nick improving his position? Probably at the expense of the coalition?

I don't see you being returned, given the fact that the shooter's party alias the Democratic Liberals might not poll as well as last time?

Ditto the motorist party and a few other tail wagging the dog entities?
Alan B.

Sorry David, this is a somewhat emotional response to express my hope that your analysis is seriously wrong. Should we end up with Jacki and Glen in an enlarged cross bench my conclusion will be that Australia has succumbed to collective temporal insanity due to concurrent infection from the political correctness virus and exposure to the ABC. The only cure will be a period of serious recession and invasion from other hostile cultures.
PS: Bill Shorten has just announced he is a union thug and will take that position into the PM role if elected - I feel a bit dizzy now, have jerky hands, and see the shadow of Gillian Triggs hiding behind the tree in my garden. I need a bex and a lie down.

Win or lose, Turbull seems to have crapped in his own nest.

If most people do the right thing & vote for the Minor Party's & spread their Preferences around the Minor Party's it'll all work out fine. Just don't vote for any of the Major Party's at all. Here's hoping anyway.

Regarding Shorten, He's a bit of a "Tain't." Tain't A&5e & Tain't (u#t, but the bit inbetween. No, tainted with a sus brush, I think, very dicey there. & Turnbull, I think he's thrashing around a bit at the moment trying to figure out what "real people" want as opposes to the Vocal PC Minority. When he does, he'll go with that. What a great Campaign that'll make with the Vocal Minority up in arms. The Papers will make a fortune.

Malcolm does seem to have a problem, with courage of conviction that's sure to be exploited?

Namely; what he said and apparently held as personal conviction around five years ago on an E.T.S; and negative gearing? The latter being a complete turnaround from a previously held position?
Alan B.

I don't understand politics very well. Surely a double dissolution will open the doors to even more micro-party winners, especially given the decline in support for both of the Tweedles ? If I were Turnbull, the smartest man in any room, I would go for just an ordinary election, lower house plus half the Senate. Shows how little I know.

My bets are:

* that both the Coalition and Labor will lose Senate seats, and that neither will come within cooee of being able to control the upper house: deals will be done;

* that Nick Xenophon will have one or two colleagues in the next Senate, and perhaps one rep in the lower house:

* that the Australian Liberty Alliance ('none of the above') will win at least one Senate seat, perhaps two, and come close to winning a lower house seat.

* that if Clive Palmer is still out of jail by July 2, he will poll in the double or perhaps triple figures, and put his destiny to be PM on the back-burner for a while.

Wouldn't be dead for quids !

Joe