What may remain more steady throughout the price swings is what I'd call 'affordability' the ratio of the oil price to world GDP. Since the net energy (thermal value minus extraction effort) of liquid fuels is declining the economy must be continuously more efficient to overcome that handicap. Initially it may cope but at some point, say a 30% drop in overall oil production, the effect will be recession as predicted by Limits to Growth.

If affordability remains more constant but the economy is dragged down by reduced energy input that suggests oil may remain 'cheap' until it runs out. Cheap meaning close to average production cost. There may be some upward swings such as the $150 price for WTI in July 2008. I'd assume by 2050 we won't have enough oil to sustain budget air travel for example.

The gas glut in both china and the US; plus huge new finds in Edmonton, (1,7 billion barrels) plus new technology which includes horizontal drilling and pad drilling, can only mean one thing?

Further price falls?

I don't know if we'll get down to $10.00 a barrel, given that's below the production costs of the Russians, the Canadians and shale oil producers.

Once some of these have been routed from the field by this quite massive oversupply, prices will likely rise a little, but not so much given an enduring gas glut.

We for our part should adopt long overdue pragmatism and just stop trying to sell our gas on a hugely depressed market, when we could instead be using our copious reserves, to underpin a revival in local manufacture.

And that would be further improved, if we jettisoned the foreign owned coal fired power stations (owners and operators) in favor of new publicly owned and control, thorium powered ones; and connected to micro grids to get the cost of industrial power down by at least half, which would just put them out of business! And lets not mention biogas coupled to ceramic fuel cells, which wold halve that cost yet again, for the domestic market!

And yes, vested energy market interests will scream like stuck pigs, and call in all their POLITICAL FAVORS!?

Moreover, if new and still untapped provinces of traditional Australian sweet light crude are able to be located to
our immediate north, in reserves to rival Edmonton!?

Then there's no logic locking them away, and continuing to import far dirtier sulfur laden rubbish, which in common use from the well head to the family jalopy, produces four times more reef killing carbon, that that which may well lies beneath it!

And yes a huge new reserve if developed and exported by us, could force the price of fuel far lower, and the only reason one suspects, for keeping it locked away.

And only possible given, I believe, patent voodoo economics; disingenuous mendacious propaganda; that flies in the face of the national interest, and the environment.
Rhrosty.

The opinion seems to be that the price will start rising later this
year as tight oil production declines. Drilling rigs are being laid
up at an increasing rate. The financiers are said to be reluctant to
get back into the financing.

If the US decline sets in the world production will also be in decline.
This may not matter for a while as growth rates are declining and a
higher price will will drive growth further down.

All in all the next year or two will be interesting.