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The Forum > Article Comments > Energy crisis as early as 2016 > Comments

Energy crisis as early as 2016 : Comments

By Dan Steffens, published 8/1/2015

Low oil prices today may be setting the world up for an oil shortage as early as 2016. Today we have just 2% more crude oil supply than demand.

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Steffens comments make some sense. In a market as active as oil with demand unlikely to moderate and supply liable to wild swings prices may indeed surge back, but that's the oil market for you. If you don't have to bet on it, don't..
Posted by Curmudgeon, Thursday, 8 January 2015 9:26:38 AM
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So low oil prices due to an oversupply of fuel are an indication of high oil prices due to an undersupply of fuel? This is ideology, not logic.
Posted by Jon J, Thursday, 8 January 2015 10:13:11 AM
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What occupies and motivates the Saudis are other oil producers, and the maintainence as much as possible of their market share.

And given they can produce a barrel of raw crude for around a dollar, at almost any price!

Not good news for the Russians!

However, what preoccupies the Saudi oil minister more than just about anything, is the new oil fields in Edmonton Canada, which are estimated to rival the Saudi's entire known reserves.

This is why The Saudis are flooding the Market, in order to maintain or grow market share, and or, dry up investment money for the Edmonton and other promising prospects.

Finally, lets not forget what we possibly have at home, and thanks to international activism, have locked away, what could be another equally large Saudi/Edmonton sized hydrocarbon reserve to our immediate north!

How much oil and gas do you think a prospect the estimated size of Victoria might hold?

And let's not forget, virtually sulfur free traditional Australian sweet light crude, leaves the Ground as virtually ready to use diesel! Or that passing NG through a simple catalyst produces liquid methanol; an excellent substitute for high octane petrol!

And what possible rationalization could there be for locking it away, even as our reserves of petrol have shrunk to as low as one weeks worth?

what would happen to Saudis oil Fields if their refineries and or pipelines were hit by a few Russian supplied cruise missiles?

Lee Kwan Yu, predicted we would become the poor white trash of Asia!

And only because we stubbornly refuse to use the brains we were born with!

We should emulate the likes of pragmatists like Lee Kwan Yu.
Who almost single handedly, produced the Singaporean economic miracle, and just crack on developing our own indigenous supplies!

And in so doing, guarantee our own very long term portable energy supplies!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Thursday, 8 January 2015 10:29:32 AM
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And flooding the market also dries up critical funds for ISIS, who indubitably have their eye on Saudi oil Fields and the income they produce.

And given that is the case, the oil crisis if there is to be one, might occur before 2016.

I mean, what do you think would be the outcome if a few Russian supplied missiles hit Saudi pipelines or oil refineries?

The Russians wouldn't do that would they, after all, they have no history of supplying rebels or miscreants, with missiles or armaments, have they, even where that suits their purpose! Da?

And therefore it makes perfect sense, for allowing our own petrol reserves to sink as low as just one weeks worth; after all, these essential supplies are completely secure aren't they?
Diesel subs anyone?

As lamb chop chewing Sam Kickovitch might say, you know it makes perfect sense!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Thursday, 8 January 2015 10:48:25 AM
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I think this is potentially more alarming than climate change. An unlucky few get flooded or burnt out but everybody will feel the effect of less oil, noting it takes 10 kilojoules of fossil fuel energy to produce and deliver 1 kj of food. Whether or not the price swings back or stays low there will be less litres. People now buying SUVs are using up a finite commodity given that most possible fuels (synthetic, deepwater oil, cellulosic etc) will be too expensive to develop at affordable prices.

The optimists say 'we'll adapt'. I think they're right the middle classes will live like Cubans that's how. Old cars, open top trailers for public transport and not going out much.
Posted by Taswegian, Thursday, 8 January 2015 1:57:02 PM
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I think a few more people are starting to believe what I have been
nagging you all about for some time.
These large swings in oil price are a sure sign of peak oil.
It was all so predicable.
Rhosty, our large oil fields up north, just where are they and what
companies found them ?
There have been plenty of wells drilled here and there but nothing
substantial that I have been able to tell.
I hear stories of capped wells here & there that the evil oil companies
have left so they can rip off Australia.
If so why would they drill in the first place ?

Of course those tight shale fields around Coober Peady are real
enough, but will be really expensive oil by the time they get enough
water there. Origin is not rushing in to get started. They will be
waiting for much higher prices.

No we are up the well known creek without a paddle and it won't get
better until we can wake up the politicians.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 8 January 2015 7:28:26 PM
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