My qualified bet is a coalition win. And for the following reasons.
The baggage Mr Rudd brings with him.
The refusal to accept the will of the party room and the damaging leaking, that all but destroyed a once mighty party.
The lack lustre monotone with which he puts policy, like that of a man who knows he's already beaten.
The extremely biased Murdoch press, which is patently campaigning for the coalition, and or, their version of the NBN, which will be less likely to damage The Murdoch's online media interests/investments?
And his treatment of underlings.
{Apparently he offended the makeup artist be refusing to engage her in conversation?
Anyone would think he had a major debate coming up and was entirely focused on that task?]
What could tip the balance back in favor of Labour, is an outbreak of international hostilities in the Middle East. And say some clever policy announcements by Mr Rudd.
Say like converting Tony Abbott,s Parental leave into free child care.
Free child care would cost no more and would allow parents the financial freedom to return to work sooner!
The current parental leave pack is enough to see them through to a return to work.
And given Tony's PLP is fully costed as policy, why not simply keep the funding package.
What is also need is vast reform and simplification of trade practices and an inordinately complex tax act.
The tax act ought to be entirely jettisoned and replaced with a single broad based tax measure, that would then collect all the current avoidance in the net, and therefore, make a very big wish list affordable; end the destiny of demography; and end compliance costs, which currently imposes a hit to the average bottom line of around 7%!
That long overdue real reform, would likely have even Murdoch onside and backing Labour, given for them, that 7% is literally billions?
Rhrosty.

A fair summary -- and not one mention of "a $70 billion black hole" or "cutting to the bone " or "paid parental leave" or "the NBN".

If you were on the ground in Griffith you would know kevvys lost.

Sunday was the Bulimba festival, Griffiths bigest day. For the first time in 15 years kevvy didn't show. The last time he lost in Griffith he spend the last two weeks sulking and didn't appear once it was obvious he'd get done. The keating baseball bat election.
He's gone missing saving Syria or labor seats in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth, NT and Tasmania or cooking scones on tv or something.

imajulianutter

Are you going to change your name once Julia retires to her Adelaide beach mansion on 7 September?

I've just thought of a very entertaining election outcome: a Labor victory but with Rudd losing his seat. Won't happen, but it's cheered me up.

I usually like Don Aitkin's comments. He's a man difficult to disagre with.

However we've sen just a few sparks in the last few days making the election a bit livelier:

1. Rupert Murdoch's role is being openly discussed. We had a great serve on the ABC's Gruen and the Chaser Boys. Q and A also picked up the issue with Tom Watson's thoughtful comments on the UK experience. There's also now a new play "Rupert" by David Williamson.

2. Foreign investment has become a far bigger issue. It came up in the ABC's "Compass" Poll. Rudd probably noticed this and brought the matter out into the open at the Rooty Hill debate. It's a pity we can't distinguish between foreign ownership of land and foreign investment. As many are saying online, we can name country after country in which foreigners cannot own land. China for instance. Or Samoa. Or Vanuatu. Or Indonesia. Or Thailand...

3. Perhaps people will accept that we will have an Abbott Government and vote "other" in the Senate and sometimes in the House to put a brake on things. We have seen what Howard did when he got his way. A GST- privatisation of Sydney airports- cushioning of private interests everywhere- and loads more cash for elite and wealthy schools. We will all have to think about why we ned a strong opposition, if Abbott shows his true colours- a conservative streak a mile wide.