"If anything, the recent pause shows the model forecasts in a good light."

And World War II exposed the brilliant grasp of reality behind Nazi ideology.

Why is it so hard for alarmists to come out and admit that the models are wrong? Wrong in detail, wrong in concept, cobbled together from equal amounts of hysterical panic and greed for funding, constructed from nothing in a selfish and brutal attempt to terrify the world for status and personal gain?

It's over, Fred. Find some other way to try and scare gullible taxpayers.

So now we've finally got to the point where the scientists now also generally agree that global warming has paused (or the rate of warming has been subdued or whatever). I've seen various theories explaining this pause - aerosols due to pollution is one, warming of the oceans is another, and I'm not going to challenge any of it.

The only point we need to consider is that various forecasts were made from the theory and those forecasts now don't look right, and theories should be judged by their forecasts, not by how many scientists endorse the theories.

Therefore all the other forecasts about extreme temperatures, species extinctions, rising seas and so on should be put on hold until this is sorted out. Until scientists start producing usable forecasts that we know we can rely on, the only sensible policy to adopt is adaptation. If and when climate change does start occurring then we should adapt to it.

It's modern day Alchemy

The north pole ice cap still seems to be retreating.

David

The North Polar sea ice coverage is slightly below where it was this time last year, and about 5% below its long-term average. The South Polar ice, however, is about 8% above its long-term average, and continues to set new records: so whatever your comment is supposed to show, it can't be GLOBAL warming. Northern Hemisphere warming, perhaps.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

Ok, let's look at this junk.

1 Last 14 years include 12 of the hottest. McShane and Wyner have dealt with this Mann's Hockeystick in their formative analysis of modern temperature cf the past:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/13/mcshane-wyner-hockey-stick-smackdown-redux/

M&W concluded that based on the same proxy evidence used by Mann that the current period was not the warmest in the last 1000 years.

However the sheer misrepresentation of this claim about 12 of the last 14 being the hottest is shown by this graph:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1980/to:1990/trend/plot/rss/from:1990/to:2000/trend/plot/rss/from:2000/to:2010/trend

What we see is a cooling 1980's, a warming 1990's and a cooling 2000's.

The reason why the cooling years of the 2000s are still warmer then the warming 1990s is simply because the plateau reached by the warming of the 1990s means that even cooling years are still warmer then the years which preceded them.

It is statistical sleight of hand, nothing more.

2 Trenberth’s new paper finding his long lost ocean warming. This is particularly egregious because all Trenberth has done is reanalyse the same data as before which led him to conclude privately but revealed in the emails that it was a travesty that they could not find the missing heat.

How convenient and how preposterous.

Judith Curry, ever diplomatic says this about Trenberth’s paper:

"The surprising finding is the apparent sequestration of heat in the global ocean starting circa 2000, which has been accompanied by a flattening of the trend of upper ocean temperatures since 2003. Is this real, or an artifact of the reanalysis process?"

How can it be that heat is going down to 2000 meters, as Trenberth claims, when ocean heating to 700 meters is falling and sea surface temperature is declining rapidly:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2003/trend

Does the heat magically miss the top of the ocean and only reveal itself at the lower depths? If it does it contradicts all known physical processes. This is voodoo science.

Trenberth’s heat is missing because it is leaving the Earth’s atmosphere. There has been a Top of Atmosphere negative imbalance since 2003:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037596011201119X

The missing heat isn’t in the ocean, it’s left the planet.