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The Forum > Article Comments > Why is Paul Ehrlich so extraordinarily sure about everything? > Comments

Why is Paul Ehrlich so extraordinarily sure about everything? : Comments

By Don Aitkin, published 19/3/2013

He's been wrong about almost everything, so how does Paul Ehrlich maintain an audience much less any credibility?

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...This article describes well a psychological version of Apoptosis: The “Doom Gene” (mdg4). Hollywood has captured the human tendency to embrace catastrophe to reinforce our societies angsty relationship with the world by promoting superheros who constantly conflict with evil, or who are actually evil themselves at times.

...The conflict between good and evil is millions of years old: Our infatuation with doom is our attempt at accepting the reality of the Alpha and omega of existence itself.
Posted by diver dan, Tuesday, 19 March 2013 8:30:15 AM
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I think Paul Ehrlich was quite prescient in his "population Bomb" book. It is many years since I read it and perhaps I should take it off my shelf, dust it off and read it again. However, we have had millions killed in wars over land disputes, and atomic threats still pervade news stories. According to the World Hunger Education Service there are presently 925,000,000 who do not have enough food. Religion is a growing problem in the world. Sea, air, land and water are being polluted more and more. It has been estimated that we need 3 planets the size of ours to provide the resources to provide a standard of living equal to that enjoyed by the West. Perhaps he was just a bit too premature in his forecasts ?

Having said that, "necessity is the mother of invention", so perhaps also man has the ingenuity to mitigate a lot of these problems as has been shown in the past. I still consider it a worry though.
Posted by snake, Tuesday, 19 March 2013 8:41:19 AM
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Snake - sorry, disagree with almost all points. A million killed in land disputes since 67 (when the book came out)? Now where did that statistic come from? And what land disputes - unless you want to stretch a point and call the Vietnam war a land dispute? The wars in Africa have been about resources since the end of the cold war, mostly.. The figure on the number of hungry people may or may not be right, but the part left out is that it is far smaller now, certainly proportionally and perhaps even in absolute terms, than about a decade or so ago.

The key reason for the change is China and India dumping most of the socialist ideology that restrained economic growth.

Ehrlich never had any idea about any of this and still seems to be completely clueless. the only reason some people listen to him, is that he plays to innate fears..
Posted by Curmudgeon, Tuesday, 19 March 2013 9:45:48 AM
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i am sort of with Snake on this one. All is not well, although probably never was.

http://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/front-page/brazil-land-dispute-deaths-up-10-percent-in-2012/#
Posted by Chris Lewis, Tuesday, 19 March 2013 10:26:33 AM
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AN Ivy league study of 300 economists over 30 years concluded; that their average predictive ability, was no better than a dart throwing monkey. Moreover, as their reputations/notoriety grew; their predictive abilities worsened even further!
If we wait long enough, Ehrlich's predictions of our ultimate destruction will be proved, as our sun expands and expands, and eventually turns our world into a fried crisp.
In the interim, there are lots of thing we can and should do, to extend our stay and our survival.
Universal education, endless, cheap renewable energy, recycled everything, the end of food wastage and wasted waste!
And if we are not actually, effectively looking for that ultimate and endless cheap energy, we are hardly likely to find it!
Simply setting aside or temporarily suspending disbelief, might assist?
And yes, we do need more planets, and an endlessly reliable energy source to power the stellar drive, we need to take us there, en masse!
Perhaps the answer lies in understanding dark matter; or all eleven dimensions?
Or why a spinning top, loaded with symmetrically placed, powerful rare earth magnets, is seemingly able to defy gravity?
Or why the addition of a cobalt catalyst into electrolysis, quite literally doubles the amount of hydrogen produced, for the same energy input? [Patented process!]
Meaning, as we burn that same hydrogen output, in a catalytically assisted fuel cell, we can create a net gain in energy, of around 30%, as virtually free energy? [Cold fusion?]
[Now, I want one of those in my new Australian made, electrically powered car.]
We humans have always/always solved overcrowding or too few resources, with migration!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Tuesday, 19 March 2013 10:29:38 AM
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Ehrlichs problem is that like Malthus he was ahead of his time.
It is impossible to foresee what developments lie ahead that will alter the time line but the events forecast by both will occur eventually.
That he is so sure of himself I can empathise with. I get quite frustrated when the proles and denialists cannot see the wood for the trees. You also get grouchy with age.

India might have increased it's food production with the green revolution but it has not stopped food poverty and now the soil has been degraded, production is dropping, farmers are committing suicide, an unsustainable situation.

Also Peak oil was not on the radar when population bomb was written and now it is here despite the hype about "shale/tight oil", which will never provide sufficient to bail the world out of it's dependence on oil.
At the moment in WA, wheat farmers are walking off their land due to perpetual drought and the US is in the grip of drought also.
What is going to become very scarce forcing the price out of reach of the poor.
Posted by Robert LePage, Tuesday, 19 March 2013 10:30:39 AM
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