The author forgets the economic success of any nation relies on ‘cheap’ energy.

The cornucopian’s believe the so-called revolution in the shale oil and gas markets will be the saviour to our ever declining conventional oil resources globally, the one that supports and underpins our on-going economic ability to continue business as usual.

If you take the US as an example of the false euphoria, look at the reality:

Since peak oil production in 1970, the number of operating oil wells in the U.S. has stayed roughly the same while the average productivity per well has declined by 42 percent.

Since 1990, the number of operating gas wells in the U.S. has increased by 90 percent while the average productivity per well has declined by 38 percent.

Shale plays suffer from the law of diminishing returns. Wells experience severe rates of depletion, belying industry claims that wells will be in operation for 30-40 years. For example, the average depletion rate of wells in the Bakken Formation (the largest shale oil play in the US) is 69% in the first year and 94% over the first five years.

The very high decline rates of shale gas wells require continuous inputs of capital—estimated at $42 billion per year to drill more than 7,000 wells—in order to maintain production. In comparison, the value of shale gas produced in 2012 was just $32 billion.

The recent announcement of one of Australia's biggest energy find reminds me of the spin verses reality that usually follows these so-called revolutionary discoveries in the energy field.

So despite all of the rhetoric in the article, one of the key drivers of a societies wellbeing has been ignored, interesting!

If we continue increasing our population and destroying our resources and environment the way we are now Australia won`t be worth living in in 2030.

Peter Lewis is guilding the lilly here.We were only saved by selling off resources and a Liberal Govt that showed some restraint on spending.

We should never have sold off the Commonwealth Bank and 4 state banks.Our Govts must now borrow the new money to equal our productivity into existence as debt.The debt will never stop growing until we address this reality.New money to equal our productivity should not be expressed as debt.Only money that already exists should have debt attached.

It is like pouring water into bucket with a big debt hole at the bottom.The more water you borrow to fill the bucket,the more debt you incur.

Hmm

Not much in this article. There’s a lot of Australia “now”, and perhaps for the next few years, but almost nothing I can see that really explores what 2030 will be like, and how we get there.

This looks wrong to me: “Australians of non-English speaking backgrounds will be the majority by 2030.”

I suspect he meant “overseas born Australians ….”

Rhian, that is a straight forward comment by George. Those Australians of non-English speaking backgrounds include himself and all others coming from a ethnic background that is non-English speaking.

Though certainly well-intentioned and worthwhile, this article strikes me as a bit of a 'dog's breakfast' - many questions, observations, assertions and accusations, but, no answers.

>>Australia's relative material well-being today was aided by recent reforms ... This included significant labour market deregulation and taxation reform.<<

What? Fair Work Australia (and resultant increased wage claims), immigration and 457 visas - and limits on private health insurance rebates? Or gov't handouts, Pink Batts, carbon tax and MRRT? (Not mining productivity, bank regulation and surplus left by Coalition perhaps?)

>>it (Aus) will need to remain internationally competitive in terms of labour costs and taxation levels.<< And: >>Australia now has fewer options in regard to balancing our productive capacity and consumption.<<
So, what should we be doing about this? How about industry, R&D, and productivity development? (On back of the mining boom.) Employment is key, not promotion of welfare and handouts - or pats on the back.

>>In an era where more nations have greater opportunity to encourage economic production and attract vital investment, Australia's distribution of public resources has increasingly focused on greater efficiency and accountability.<< Really? (Halls, Pink Batts? Or submarines?)

>>But how do we promote Australian industry to employ more Australians and immigrants given the ongoing demise of more sectors that are opened up to foreign competition?<< While: >>In truth, whether the Australian economy prospers or stagnates depends very much on the fortunes of the international economy, as it always has.<<

Ah, there's the rub. Free Trade and Level Playing Field, with Aus at bottom of a steep slope. A 'smart country', higher wages, immigration, and better trains, roads, school halls and higher education are still useless without jobs. Industry and services anyone?

The author's conclusion: >>Economic policy difficulties will lead Australian political leaders to exploit non-economic issues or offer false claims or ideas that supposedly can save the world.<<

Resignation to our current reality? Or, forecast of our inevitable destiny? Sad, and so very unenlightening.

Our future tied to the rise and rise of China and the 'growth paradigm', as, unchecked, the world heads inexorably to implosion.