And Libya can be added to the list of Arab and Persian states that will fall short of the democratic stability hoped for by gullible Western politicians and idealists.

The overt and covert support provided by the West might be wasted and counter-productive if the result is new Islamist regimes that might host al Qaeda camps or leanings.

Keep an eye on Libya where many Libyan students have returned as rebels for fun, Libya and glory. They are young, currently unqualified for peaceful jobs, now no fixed address, profess to being on a "mission", used to shooting and mayhem.

Significantly these student rebels may have just plundered weapons caches http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/09/07/libya.missing.arms/index.html to continue civil warring or perhaps forming a Libyan chapters of al Qaeda. They may need to be bribed to give up their weapons.

Pete
see http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2011/03/us-covert-action-to-be-scaled-up-in.html

None of this is news to those of us who were never deceived by the usual airheads blathering on about an “Arab spring.”

It does appear that the big loser in all this could be Iran. It’s support for the continuation of the Alawite Apartheid regime in Syria* seems to have resulted in it losing traction among the mostly Sunni Arabs.

If any country is being marginalised in the region it would appear to be Iran.

Three questions:

--If chaos reigns in all the Muslim states in the region and they get dragged into mutual conflict how does that disadvantage Israel? I would have thought it benefits Israel.

--In the days of the Shah Israel and Iran, two states that were marginalised in the region, formed a de facto strategic alliance. I don’t see Iran’s Islamic Republic phase lasting. Could Israel and Iran, as the two marginal players in the region, form an alliance again? It would benefit both countries. Stranger things have happened.

--Turkey had been trying to form a de facto alliance with Iran. That may no longer be possible. In addition Turkey’s major ally in the Arab world, Qadaffi, is gone. Turkey seems to be investing heavily in Egypt. Could Islamist Turkey and soon-to-be Islamist Egypt form a strategic alliance? Or will they become strategic rivals? My guess is that Egypt is too enfeebled to compete with Turkey so a sort of “Ottoman alliance” could arise at least for a while.

Interesting times.

*Funny how all those who accuse Israel of being an Apartheid state failed to notice Syria. But, then again, they failed to notice that Saddam too was running an Apartheid state as is the Saudi monarchy.

One thing is certain. Whatever happens life in the Middle-East is going to get worse for Christians.