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Ageing gracefully : Comments
By Andrew Leigh, published 17/2/2011In the last 40 years centenarians have inceased 2,000 per cent in number - where will it end?
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As for the Author trying to rack up speed of the population-growth/immigration escalator, perhaps it is unlikely to end with a halo.
Yes, oldies are increasing - but the horrors of a changing working/dependent ratio are both overplayed and presented with less than integrity.
At some stage demographic stability will be achieved. When will that arrive? - in the next generation, the one after that, ---?, and the ratio of dependents to the taxables will settle down, hopefully; and we will have to adjust to it. Otherwise, ever-chasing the end of the author’s rainbow will take us generation by generation (at present rates of growth) from a present approx. 22.5 million through 40, 80, ---million, with (on the author’s logic) an ever-increasing need for rate of growth.
The dependency ratio has not changed much in the last few decades, in spite of worry-warts like the author. From the Bureau of Statistics (ABS 3105.0.65.001) the percentage of Australia’s population listed as being in the dependency age groups, at five year intervals from 1950 to 2010, stands at: 26%, 29, 30, 28, 29, 27, 26, 24, 22, 21, 20, 19%.
Yes, that view of dependency you have to work it out for yourself: Old age is flagged as the wearying one, but the stats are split into three dependency-age groups. These are the ever-costly youngsters (0-14 years of age), the cheap-workforce golden oldies doing Granny duties etc. (65-84), and the sometimes costly few (85 and older). When the “dependency” groups are added together, the ratios are improving. Let’s face up to the realities regarding whatever difficulties are inherent in them, not be panicked into deferring to our grandchildren the ever-present and increasing danger of infrastructure, social, and environmental resource problems embedded in a devious push for greater population pressure.