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Remote indigenous battlers doing it tougher under recent government policies : Comments
By Charlie Ward, published 28/1/2011Aboriginal interventions in the Northern Territory are social-engineering with L-plates - our perpetual groundhog day
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There is a persistent belief that having a high proportion of a population below 25, or 21, or 18, meant ONLY a high birth rate, and a rapid population increase. It may be true, as the author notes, that "in many remote NT communities up to 50 per cent of the population is under age 25 .... " but this can also be a very worrying sign that the mortality of older Indigenous people, i.e. over 25, is very high.
After all, imagine if, in a certain population, nobody much lived past the age of thirty: what would be the proportion then of people under 25 ? In fact, if the birth rate was stable, even if it was at zero, with a high level of adult mortality, the bulk of the population would still be below 25. In itself, it means EITHER high fertility OR high mortality. A combination of both would give the impression of very rapid population growth.
A comparison of births every five years would clarify the long-term situation, and it does appear that, in the NT of all places, the Indigenous birth rate from one Census to the next, or from one Post-Enumeration Survey to the next, reveals a birth rate which has been lower than the nation-wide Indigenous average for decades.
So what 'a high proportion under 25' may actually reveal is the critical need to attend to what is actually a very high young-adult mortality rate, i.e. of people under forty or fifty, rather than a high birth rate in remote communities.