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The Forum > Article Comments > The declining role of coal > Comments

The declining role of coal : Comments

By John Le Mesurier, published 13/10/2010

Our mining industry will grow in the short term, followed by a period of stagnation and after 2020, possibly earlier, will decline.

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While I agree with the need to phase out coal I consider the suggested alternatives to be fantasies. Carbon capture and storage seems unable to get past the pilot plant stage. I suggest that there isn't enough underground storage space, the extra coal needed is prohibitive as are the steep carbon taxes needed to make it viable. Long term leakage of CO2 is another concern. Commercial wind and solar appear to be utterly dependent on subsidies, mandates and gas fired backup. Take the props away and they will flounder beyond say 20% grid penetration.

There is precious little evidence that nonvolcanic geothermal can replace coal. I believe the realistic alternatives to coal are nuclear with near zero emissions and combined cycle gas with 50% CO2 savings. However gas is needed for many other things including fertiliser and oil replacement. Australia is one of very few countries with long term gas supplies. Like the UK we risk squandering our gas reserves.

The perverse result is the longer we wait for wind, solar, carbon capture and geothermal to save us from traditional coal the longer we will continue to rely on it. The green fantasy pushers are condemning us to much higher priced or less reliable electricity with very little emissions savings.
Posted by Taswegian, Wednesday, 13 October 2010 12:13:33 PM
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For once I agree, mostly, with Taswegian. Perhaps John Le Mesurier should wait until geothermal sites are actually genrating useable electricity, beofre writing so confidentally about how they will replace coal.

Whether you really believe other alternatives will replace coal or not, ramping up the sector to take over entirely from coal fired plants is a huge ask. Won't happen for decades.

In the mean time, a $30 carbon tax will not push out coal completely but will will result in a lot of gas fired plants being built, and boost electricity prices.
Posted by Curmudgeon, Wednesday, 13 October 2010 12:29:28 PM
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Agree with Taswegian, a rare occurrence for me ..

Without Nuclear, we have no alternative to coal.

I expect the Green/ALP/Indies will try to force the issue with huge taxes, but that will only last as long as the electorate tolerates such idiocy and we still have no solutions (say 2 terms, including this one as a maximum).

Then the electorate will reject the "alliance" and insist the new government puts back in place adequate supplies of electricity, regardless of how it is generated.

The current alliance seems to be forgetting it is the duty of government to deliver services, not to punish the community and become tyranical .. the Greens and Indies of course have never had power before and lacking experience cannot wait to start telling everyone what to do.

Thermal power, is just another folly, the people implementing the research and tests are making all the money now, as no one will ever make money in Australia from thermal power without massive subsidies .. if it ever delivers anything at all.

All those who voted for the alliance, I sure hope you enjoy what you are getting.
Posted by Amicus, Wednesday, 13 October 2010 1:45:18 PM
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Burning coal in Australia contributes very little to CO2 in the atmosphere. Most coal burning occurs in other countries.

For example: -

Australia produces about 6% of the world's saleable black coal and is ranked fourth after China (45%), USA (19%) and India (8%).

Australia produces about 8% of the world's brown coal and is ranked fifth largest after Germany (22%), Russia (10%), USA (9%) and Greece (8%).

http://www.australianminesatlas.gov.au/education/fact_sheets/coal.jsp

As well, most of the coal mined in Australia is exported.

It is more worrying if other countries reduce their consumption of Australian coal that so much helps to provide the money to pay the loans to pay for Australia's trade deficit.
Posted by vanna, Wednesday, 13 October 2010 1:47:43 PM
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Our thermal coal exports should be subject to the proposed carbon tax if the destination country doesn't levy the same amount (and with appropriate oversight).
Posted by kuke, Wednesday, 13 October 2010 2:15:12 PM
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The worst thing about articles like this is that the mere fact that they are published gives them a level of credibility they just don't deserve.

Unfortunately not enough people bother to learn the truth about these failed tecknowledgies.

Anyone who has followed the argument knows that those countries rash enough to rush into them are now all backpedaling as fast as they can go.

Spain is now a basket case, Denmark has to buy nuclear generated power from France, & sell off their wind power when they have any to Sweden to pump water. Their grid can't handle it.

Even the Germans have been unable to make it work, & are reducing subsidies at a great rate.

Of course, as the big players are retreating, with third degree burns of the fingers, no less than that great thinker, & Queensland premier, Anna Bligh is jumping on the band wagon. I have had 4 calls trying to sell me the Queensland government subsidised domestic solar power system.

Yes it is a great investment, but I can't sign up for something that I know is a con on the tax payer, even if it would save me money, by way of the huge subsidy.
Posted by Hasbeen, Wednesday, 13 October 2010 2:37:50 PM
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