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The Forum > Article Comments > Business leaders predict 'global oil supply crunch and price spike' > Comments

Business leaders predict 'global oil supply crunch and price spike' : Comments

By Matthew Wild, published 18/6/2010

The CEO of Lloyds is warning that the world is facing a 'period of deep uncertainty' over the decline of fossil fuels.

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Of course the increase in costs will be blamed on the "greenies" for some reason or another.
Interesting that "peak oil" is avoided...a bit like invoking "the Club of Rome" when talking about limits to growth. Every 55+ knows that the Club "got it wrong" on the limits to human life on Earth, yet a few years later and it is only down to science & technology that the conclusions were delayed by 40-50 years or so.
The conclusion that "resources are not unlimited" simply cannot be admitted, for similar reasons to why it cannot be admitted that "house prices do *not* always rise". Admission would then give credibility to a balanced view, leading to balanced policy: Something the radical conservatives would rather avoid!
Posted by Ozandy, Friday, 18 June 2010 3:51:43 PM
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The sooner the better.
Once oil hits $200 a barrel public transport will boom, pollution and vehicle accidents will fall. Motorbikes will become more common and safer to ride. Carparks and roads could be turned over to much needed open space and parks.
Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq will become irrelevant backwaters as the west turns to other fuels which will now be more competitive against oil.
Local food and products will be the cheapest choice as transporting food etc long distances becomes unviable.
Freight transport by rail will greatly replace trucks. Giving us an end to drugged up truckies whinging how hard they have it while they intimidate and massacre other drivers.
Telecommuting and net conferencing will become the norm. The NBN wont look like a failure then. I bet the big end of town complain its not enough LOL.
Local communities will thrive as people reduce their travel and spend more time at home and in their local area.
Business will have to decentralise and open more branches to service our widely dispersed communities. Reversing the trend of the last few decades.
The airline industry will contract massively and lose much of its power and influence. Not building a second Sydney airport will look like genius. The cruise industry will boom.
Australian coal exports will go through the roof. (not sure if this is such a good thing but it will make us rich)
Jobs lost will more than be made up for with new development and employment in new, sustainable, energy industries.

All in all I think it will improve our security and our quality of life and the fact it is being spruiked by the head of Loyds I am quite inclined to believe it. Insurers as big as Loyds tend to spend lots of money working out risks and future trends and they arent wrong too often.
Posted by mikk, Friday, 18 June 2010 7:02:15 PM
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BP's Statistical Review 2010 shows that peak oil occurred in 2005/2006/2007/2008 when within measurement accuracy production plateaued.

Global oil production (including crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids) was as follows

2004 80371 thousand barrels/day
2005 81261
2006 81557
2007 81446
2008 81995
2009 79948

Production in 2009 was 2.6% below that in 2008 and is now below that in 2004.

BP will say that it is a question of demand, not supply, but lots of factors produce the peak oil scenario. We may have to wait another year or two to be sure, but the plateauing over four years is pretty conclusive.

To have a look at the Brasilian pre-salt discoveries see

http://www.after-oil.co.uk/just_drill_deeper.htm
Posted by John Busby, Saturday, 19 June 2010 5:57:38 PM
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