Mhaze,
your first link shows US EIA data which analyses RESERVES growth - NOT new oil!

Has the difference between discoverable RESOURCE and usable RESERVES penetrated your thick skull yet?

RESOURCE is what's there. It's what we discover. It's the oil in the ground.

RESERVES analyses resource in context. Tricky questions like what technology are you using at what price for what market, and who will buy it at that price? It's where the oil meets the market.

All you have linked to are graphs that show what happens when the world price of oil goes up. Guess what? THE RESERVES INCREASE! Yeah, who'd a thunk it!? When you can throw extra chemicals and extra energy pressure to extract the harder to get stuff, the amount you can extract goes UP! Wow - magic! (Derp! Facepalm!)

Has this affected the amount of oil we've DISCOVERED? The amount in the GROUND? NO! (Again - Derp! Facepalm!)

Why is the price up? It's complicated, and involves everything from the war in Ukraine, droughts in Brazil leading to less hydro power leading to more demand for gas, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_global_energy_crisis

Of course during the pandemic the market for oil shut down so bad that they had to pay people to take it away!

But let me point out the obvious. These are questions of economics, NOT RESOURCE!

For resource, you have to google scary stuff like "Historical Oil discovery rates".

Then you get news like this from Bloomberg-

“Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Ahead
New finds at lowest since 1947 and headed even lower: WoodMac
Explorers replacing just 6% of resources they drill: Rystad”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/oil-discoveries-at-a-70-year-low-signal-a-supply-shortfall-ahead?leadSource=uverify%20wall

We're finding less oil. Got it?
Got to find it before you can burn it. Got it?

Now ultimately I agree with you that the market means higher oil prices will mean investment in new ideas. But as the Senate enquiry said, it’s a 20 year job.

And you’ll see one answer ramping up right in front of your eyes.
EV’s.

"We're finding less oil. Got it?"

Well I didn't say otherwise....got it!

But whether that's true or not, the fact remains, as you've already admitted, we are discovering more than we're using.

I'd also note that your link to support your case is from 2016 (!!) which was the worst year in the past decade for discoveries. If I thought you were cluey enough to do it, I'd accuse you of cherry-picking.

"when the world price of oil goes up. Guess what? THE RESERVES INCREASE! "

Well, yes, this is what I've been saying above and indeed for years in these pages. I'm please to see you finally caught up, or caught on.

Quite why you think I don't know the difference between reserves and resources is unclear since I've never addressed the (minor) issue. But I guess you're grasping at any straw by now, eh?

So let's review.... You started off asserting (a claim without evidence) that peak oil happened in the 1970s and by now have come to realise that it might happen some time in the near to medium future. Well done...glad to have been of service.

Finding less oil? Is that because we are not looking for it? It could be said that we also not finding as much coal, even though there is at least 1,200 years worth of the stuff available. It's hard to take seriously the 'end of' stories. Cranks like Paul Ehrlich, who never got a thing right, queered the pitch for modern seers, who might be right, or they might be wrong. What will be will be be; but there is currently nothing to replace oil, coal and gas capable of maintaining life and prosperity as we know it now; despite what cranks like the excited, sweaty Bugs Bowen is currently ranting about.

Mhaze,
"as you've already admitted, we are discovering more than we're using."
I never said anything of the sort. Please quote me saying this? I must have misspoke. I'll say it again - discovery peaked way back in the 1950's and 60's. It's been declining ever since. Occasionally there's an upwards blip but it's never very much.

I actually understand your reluctance to believe we're starting to reach the limits. I've been there. It's how I became a bit of an environmentalist. When I found out how much oil it takes to grow food and run the world and that we were nearing this civilisation's half-way mark, it kind of freaked me out. I ended up researching so much about this stuff that I published in magazines about it a few times! I'm no geologist - but these were academic magazines asking for my perspective on it.

In the 18 years since I've forgotten more oil data and info than you'll ever know.

But back to the reluctance to believe this stuff. It's HARD to because of reporting like this!
"Oil And Gas Discoveries Reach Four-Year High In 2019, As Exploration Spending Set To Grow...
...According to Rystad Energy, oil and gas firms discovered a four-year high 12.2 billion barrels of oil or the equivalent last year,"
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2020/01/11/oil-and-gas-discoveries-hit-four-year-high-in-2019-as-capital-spending-set-to-pick-up/?sh=62af55738749

Except... we use 35.5 billion barrels a year. http://www.worldometers.info/oil/

So the best year of oil discovery in 4 years finds a THIRD OF A YEAR's worth! Note the declining oil reserves ticker at the link above.
No matter how much we "Drill baby Drill!" that number is going DOWN BABY - DOWN!

Bad: Even the Forbes link says we've only got 50 years left.

Worse: That doesn't include the inevitable geology of peak oil which is earlier. (Oh and I never meant WORLD oil peaked in the 1970's - just Hubbert predicted *American* conventional peak oil - and was of course correct.)

Worst: The Export Land Model tells us that the international MARKET for oil dries up *well before* the geology of peak oil lowers production. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

OMG here's another country wasting money on space based solar when we here know it can't work....

http://spacenews.com/china-to-use-space-station-to-test-space-based-solar-power/

Max,

I showed you the data earlier which showed that our reserves are increasing not decreasing. QED.

"In the 18 years since I've forgotten more oil data and info than you'll ever know."

Let's meet half way. I agree with the first part (up to the word 'than') of your statement.

TTBN,
you're funny. I have not studied peak coal as much as I have peak oil, but your assumption about 1,200 years is just FUNNY!

In 2015 the World Coal Association reported that two different estimates of coal reserves remaining were 968 Gt - a larger estimate of the two, but we'll go with that. (There are others a THIRD less, but we'll go with this.)
http://www.worldcoal.org/file_validate.php?file=Coal%20Facts%202015.pdf

How much do we use? 820 Million tons a year which is 8.2 Gt / year.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-coal-consumption-by-region-2000-2021

Divide 968 Gt by 8.2 = 118 years.

Now, we can't burn it because from a climate point of view we can't even afford to burn the remaining OIL! The remaining coal would take us over our carbon budget 5 times over.

Nor can we rely on that 118 years figure because:-
1. World energy demand is increasing because electricity is such useful stuff.
2. The poor deserve their turn at living a comfortable modern life.

I'm convinced that 100% renewables can do the job - but if anyone here doubts that they can support nuclear as well. Breeder reactors get 90 times the energy out of each bit of uranium. Dr James Hansen - the world's most famous climatologist - has said that he supports nuclear power. At one point he said believing in renewables was like believing in the Tooth Fairy - but that was quite a while ago and renewables have dropped 90% in cost since then.

We can now afford to overbuild renewables to cater for the worst energy drought in winter - and just curtail the rest of the year.