The Forum > General Discussion > The poison chalice election
The poison chalice election
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These are some of the issues the government will be faced with:
* rising interest rates. The recent rise is merely the first of many to come over the next year or so. Even a 25 point rise has the folks screaming about mortgage pain. Wait until you see a 200- or 300-point rise.
* rising inflation. Its already at 5% but will go higher yet. In the US its at 8% and rising. Double digit inflation in Europe is likely. Inflation in these places will be exported here.
* while real GDP remains strong and will benefit from the increased prices of commodities following the Ukrainian invasion, this is a temporary sugar-hit. Forecasts are for real GDP to fall significantly in 2023.
* we now have a debt approaching $1 trillion with a massive structure deficit that may see the gross debt getting to $1.3T in the life of the next parliament.
* the international situation is disastrous. Probable stagflation in the US…welcome back Carter. Recession in Europe is widely forecast and growth estimates for China are being downgraded.
So an incoming government is faced with addressing the problems caused by the profligacy of the ‘lockdown’ debacles. Yet is either party even talking about how these issues are to addressed? Not even close. Indeed both sides now seem to have adopted the policy that everything can be addressed by just throwing money at it. When petrol prices rose and threatened Lib votes, they just cut the excise. Cost of living increases? No problem….here’s $250. Medical costs worrying you? Fear not…we’ll cut the costs. Not by actually cutting costs mind you. Instead we’ll subsidise meds and get the next generation to pick up the tab.
The Libs are a financial disaster and have abandoned all that even looks like fiscal conservatism.
And the ALP are the ALP so no joy there. Whichever way we vote, things are going to be rough for the government but worse for the people.