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The Forum > General Discussion > The poison chalice election

The poison chalice election

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Whoever wins this election is likely to presented with the worst economic outlook faced by any incoming government since 1975.

These are some of the issues the government will be faced with:

* rising interest rates. The recent rise is merely the first of many to come over the next year or so. Even a 25 point rise has the folks screaming about mortgage pain. Wait until you see a 200- or 300-point rise.

* rising inflation. Its already at 5% but will go higher yet. In the US its at 8% and rising. Double digit inflation in Europe is likely. Inflation in these places will be exported here.

* while real GDP remains strong and will benefit from the increased prices of commodities following the Ukrainian invasion, this is a temporary sugar-hit. Forecasts are for real GDP to fall significantly in 2023.

* we now have a debt approaching $1 trillion with a massive structure deficit that may see the gross debt getting to $1.3T in the life of the next parliament.

* the international situation is disastrous. Probable stagflation in the US…welcome back Carter. Recession in Europe is widely forecast and growth estimates for China are being downgraded.

So an incoming government is faced with addressing the problems caused by the profligacy of the ‘lockdown’ debacles. Yet is either party even talking about how these issues are to addressed? Not even close. Indeed both sides now seem to have adopted the policy that everything can be addressed by just throwing money at it. When petrol prices rose and threatened Lib votes, they just cut the excise. Cost of living increases? No problem….here’s $250. Medical costs worrying you? Fear not…we’ll cut the costs. Not by actually cutting costs mind you. Instead we’ll subsidise meds and get the next generation to pick up the tab.

The Libs are a financial disaster and have abandoned all that even looks like fiscal conservatism.
And the ALP are the ALP so no joy there. Whichever way we vote, things are going to be rough for the government but worse for the people.
Posted by mhaze, Wednesday, 4 May 2022 7:24:05 PM
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I think you're overestimating the problem.
Headline inflation is high, but that's largely due to supply problems - partly because of Covid and partly due to the Ukrainian war. These have caused prices to increase, but it's a one off - the supply problems are unlikely to worsen. Therefore the underlying inflation rate isn't particularly high. Even the headline rate is pretty low by late 20th century standards, and will fall when commodity prices do.

If Europe has double digit inflation, the Euro will probably fall against the Aussie dollar, preventing their inflation being exported here.

Practically all of Australia's public debt is in Australian dollars, so there's literally no chance at all of Australia being unable to service its debt. And no generation is under any obligation to eliminate the debt, so please stop spreading the lie that the next generation will have to pick up the tab! It's the current generation that pays, be it in higher taxes, higher interest rates or higher inflation (yes, measures designed to reduce inflation can have the opposite effect if they don't result in higher productivity).
Posted by Aidan, Thursday, 5 May 2022 1:57:27 AM
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Germany's economy will be destroyed without Russian gas
Posted by Armchair Critic, Thursday, 5 May 2022 2:22:21 AM
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we now have a debt approaching $1 trillion
maze,
I would not at all be surprised if 95% of that has gone towards Public Service bureaucracy !
Those who work in producing industry create their own revenue & it's that what makes economies rolling on.
Posted by individual, Thursday, 5 May 2022 8:12:57 AM
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That idea doesn't seem to worry the candidates busting a gut to win the election.

The rise in interest rates is no big deal. The shock/horror comes from people too young to remember really high interest rates, when people had the grit and intelligence to adjust their spending to hang onto their houses. Interest rates have been stupidly low. No matter who takes government this time, the RBA will still be independent and will set interest rates.

We can't do much about our politicians, who are pretty much the same, no matter who they are or what they say. It's up to us to take control of our own lives and not rely on government - any government. Life will go on with the Coalition or Green Labor. It's time for the gimme, gimme generation to realise that the socialism now beloved of both parties - only because that's what the naive people wanted - doesn't work.
Posted by ttbn, Thursday, 5 May 2022 9:54:46 AM
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ttbn,
Reminds me of a cartoon on Facebook where a Uni graduate sits in front of a whiteboard onto which the lecturer wrote; Student Debt problem solved. You took out a loan-pay it back !
Posted by individual, Thursday, 5 May 2022 9:58:34 AM
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