With the massive sanctions imposed by the west including:

The freezing of most of its foreign currency reserves,
The grounding of its airlines,
The almost total freezing of purchases of Russian products
The withdrawal of foreign companies
The stopping of purchase of Russian oil by the west (Russian oil sales have dropped nearly 70%)

And the massive cost of the war in Ukraine the Russian economy is collapsing to the point where the ruble has collapsed by 50% and the country's bonds have junk bond status.

As far as the war is going, their convoys have ground to a halt and they have already lost more military vehicles than they can replace and are desperately trying to replace them with civilian buses, tankers etc. They are also losing hundreds of soldiers every day along with tanks and aircraft.

The west has supplied nearly 20 000 anti-tank weapons and nearly the same number of anti-aircraft missiles that are littering the Ukrainian countryside with the wreckage of hardware that Russia can't replace.

Soon Russia will be in as bad a state as when the USSR collapsed.

Soon Russia will be in as bad a state as when the USSR collapsed
shadowminister,
I think Russia might just give the West a taste of their own medicine !

No. Russia is not becoming a failed state. Like China, which suffered from 100 years of humiliation, Russia, under Putin, is intent on getting back at America for winning the Cold War. Putin wants to unite Russia, but not in the guise of the old USSR. He is intent on a return to Czarist Russia, with himself as Czar.

If you want to know more, you should read 'Putin’s Playbook', by Rebekah Koffler. Koffler, is a Russian-born American who worked for U.S. intelligence during her working life. She has some interesting things to say about her country of birth, about Putin’s support for America's left, and the incompetence and corruption of U.S. intelligence organisations in their dealings with the Putin threat.

Most of the military sent into Ukraine believed they were going into a friendly people who would welcome them and release them from oppression from its government. However, they have found the people are hostile to them being there, as are many in Russia.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4OhtZKHalU

It has been suggested that a no-fly zone over Ukraine might be the only rational solution for NATO, which will have to fight Putin eventually.

Putin is Human. NATO doesn't have to fight him eventually - sooner or later he will die off, and it's more likely to be sooner than later.

http://www.christiantoday.com/article/over.280.russian.orthodox.priests.call.for.end.to.russian.in

"CP) More than 280 priests and deacons of the Russian Orthodox Church are calling for reconciliation and an immediate end to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, stressing that "the Last Judgement awaits all."

"We mourn the ordeal to which our brothers and sisters in Ukraine were undeservedly subjected," the Russian Orthodox clerics wrote in an open letter, which was launched Tuesday and had garnered signatures of 284 priests, archpriests and deacons by Sunday morning.

At least 351 civilians have been killed and another 707 wounded in Ukraine since Russia's military invasion began on Feb. 24, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said Saturday, adding that the actual numbers are likely to be "considerably higher," Reuters reported."

The West, like a 16 year old schoolgirl, thought that it could dispense with force and power; Putin knows that that is not right, and he has a $500 billion war chest to prove it.

We spend peanuts, and our 'leaders' chunter on about mythical international law and universal human rights, stupidly believing that other people and cultures think the same as we do. They do not.

The US has banned Russian energy imports and will lift sanctions on Venezuela.
http://www.reuters.com/business/oil-see-saws-near-14-yr-highs-us-weighs-russia-oil-embargo-2022-03-08/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-agrees-to-restart-negotiations-with-u-s-backed-opposition-11646756236

Our defence spending in 1920-21 was $7.82 billion while subsidies for the fossil fuel industry were $10.3 billion so it's clear where our priorities lie.

Meanwhile it's unlikely that Russia will resort to using nukes because it would be suicide but the number of false alarm nuclear accidents in the USSR, USA and Israel since the end of WW2 is frightening. One of those was due to NATO exercises during the 1980s simulating an invasion of the USSR which the Russians suspected was a cover for a real invasion and put their missiles on alert.

I think starving their economy is the only sensible and safest option.
In the end it probably won't be the Russian economy under threat but the personal fortunes of Putin and various supporting oligarchs that will make a difference.

Fuel in Russia after the sanctions is AUD 70c a litre.
http://youtu.be/c77JgJcrO9s

Sanctions against Russia are really working in the West, where Americans are paying the equivalent of $3 for a litre of petrol, and we in Australian are paying over $2 in some cases - with the cost of food and essentials, all carried by trucks, sky-rocketing in proportion.

This was on Facebook this morning;

Russia has already been cut off from CNN, Pornhub & Facebook. The US is now working on depriving Russians of McDonalds & CocaCola. If they keep going with these sanctions, Russians will soon be among the healthiest & best informed people on the planet.

individual,

Right. It is not as if Russians are not used to going without, either. We in Australia and the West in general are the ones taking for granted life's little luxuries, which are about to get a lot dearer, and even out of reach for many people thinking about who they will vote for this year.

Russians are not like us. They are a tough, pragmatic lot. They have survived unimaginable (to us) hardships and terrors. Many of them still think the man who killed more of their forbears than Hitler killed Jews , Joseph Stalin, was a great leader. Apart from a couple of hundred of them here and there, the stories about ordinary Russians being against Putin are fictitious.

ttbn,
>Americans are paying the equivalent of $3 for a litre of petrol
Are you sure that's a litre not a gallon?

Americans are paying the equivalent of $3 a litre, of $5 to $6 dollars an American gallon, which is 0.264 litres. Straight from American news.

Russia has produced its latest list of unfriendly states. Whereas there were only two previously, America and Czechoslovakia, it has been extended to include:

Australia, Albania, Andorra, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Micronesia, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, the United Kingdom, South Korea, San Marino, North Macedonia, Singapore, Taiwan, Montenegro, Switzerland, Japan and Ukraine.

$6 per gallon works out to be $1.32 per litre. Even if converted to $Aust its about $A1.80.

I believe that Russia is shortly going to default on some government bonds. This will put Russia in a similar situation as Greece was or Argentina was a while ago.

More than ten days now and perhaps 20% of the Russian invading force has been destroyed or disabled. I suspect that the Ukranian resistance is becoming more effective.

One thing upsets me. The Russian Army's tactic now seems to be one of surrounding cities, cutting of food, water and power supplies, then indiscriminately murdering the civilians with missile and artillery strikes. What do all the bleeding heart lefties have to say about this? I heard one Irish pollie claiming the US army did exactly the same thing in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Yes, the behaviour of the Russian Army is disgusting. I hope the Ukranians knock out another fifth of the invading army in quick time, but in the meantime tens of thousands of civilians may die in Mariupol. Putin is a monster.

There is a lot of wishful thinking going on here. Have a look at the piece by Mehroz Siraj this morning on the uselessness of sanctions. Draconian sanctions on Germany led to WW11; Putin has been planning on a war with the US for the last 20 years. A Biden America is useless. The rest of the West, plus allies such as Japan, India, need to get serious about preventing WW111.

It is a war of attrition that Russia will lose. Now that the Ukranians have shown their courage and determination, the weapons are being supplied in quantity by western nations, along with other military support. Hopefully there will be lots of drones as well, so the Ukranians can conduct coordinated strikes against the cowardly Russian artillery. The Russian army will reach a point where they will have to retreat or face a turkey shoot, and it wont be soon enough.

What does Jules have to say about all this? Oh, that's right, his humanitarian commentary has to go through an ideological filter first.

One US gallon = 3.785 litres.

Gee. If only Putin had consulted Fester, he would never have moved against Ukraine.

I wouldn't have a clue ttbn. Why would I? I am just glad to see the Ukranians put up a fight and see logistical problems for the Russians. The longer this horror continues the more the Russian army will be depleted. That is the only good that will come from this conflict.

ttbn,

The war is costing Russia up to $20bn per day. With sanctions, this is very hard to pay for. With all the military hardware being destroyed every day that Russia can no longer replace, it is only a matter of time before Russia is no longer capable of fighting the war.

Fester,

I would hardly describe Putin as a darling of the left, with the downfall of the Sovit Union, Putin and those immediately before him him were seen as the champions of American style "freedom and democracy" in Russia, another great economic resource to be exploited, for vast profits. Trump is an admirer of Putin, the type of guy he would like to be. Our little gang of Trumpets love Putin as well, but these days they just don't know how to say it.

Paul,

I think Putin's agenda is more about plunder and his vision of a Restored Russia, which would put him more in line with many dictators. I don't see Russia as aspiring to a US style democracy.

I hope the Ukranians can acquire equipment and develop strategies to deal with the Russian artillery, else there will be tens of thousands of civilian deaths. I hope Jules makes a call for cyber attacks on Russia, but he has a few legal troubles currently, so it would be brave of him to bite a hand that funds him.

Fester,

You certainly gave me the impression you knew all about it, or I would not have said what I did. I have referred to a book about Russia and Russians, by a Russian. It is $21.99 in ebook form. It is worth a read if you really want to know about Russians and why they are not like us, do not think the way we do, and why it is folly to think that what we Westerners believe should or will happen is not worth diddly squat. I am not particularly clever, so I read - four books on the go at the moment. Many of the comments and opinions here seem to be straight from the mainstream media or the front bar.

The MSM cannot necessarily be trusted on how well the Ukranians are fighting (the ones not running away), or how badly the Russians are faring. False information abounds. For instance the latest horror about the destruction of a maternity hospital. Really horrible if true. But the Russians claim that the hospital had been evacuated some time ago, and was being used for military purposes. Who do we believe? I don't think we can know one way or the other from the safety of our armchairs in Australia.

Shadowminister,

$20 billion a day? That's a hell of a lot of money. I would be interested to know who came up with that figure. Will sanctions make any difference? Did you read the article on sanctions I referred to? It will still be there over the weekend.

Russia's economy is only slightly larger than Australia's, but they spend much more on defence than most countries because most Russians, unlike Westerners, will sacrifice what they must, including personal freedoms and luxuries for security and stability. We believe Russians think the way we do. They do not.

On trusting the media, in Australia reporters are the second-least trusted of 30 occupations, ahead of politicians but behind delivery drivers.

Pauliar,

The "UPTO" $20bn per day was an estimate from General Petreaus of the US army to keep an army of about 160 000 supplied, fed and watered, let alone the $ms to keep 1000s jets helicopters tanks APC etc fueled and running especially since the resupply of food, fuel, ammunition is in hostile territory with large numbers being blown up. If you can come up with a better figure then let's hear it.

As for sacrificing their personal freedoms etc, that is not done voluntarily. With the cost of the war and sanctions, Russia is losing men and equipment that it can't replace.

Ukraine is for the Russians like Afghanistan on steroids. They have lost more in two weeks in Ukraine than they lost in Afghanistan in a year.

shadowminister,

You address your post to "Pauliar". I am confused. I thought it was I who asked you about the $20billion a day figure. Thanks for the answer, anyway.

Perhaps you could now tell 'Pauliar' how you know no more about Russian culture and psyche than I (ttbn) do. You state that: "sacrificing their personal freedoms etc, that is not done voluntarily". How do you know this? Studied Russian culture have you? Or, did you get that from a US general on his last legs as well?

I can see why Paul 1405 enjoys taking the piss out of you.

ttbn,

My mistake, Pauliar normally asks the stupid questions.

I assume that you can now see the justification for the "up to $20bn/day" unless, of course, you know more than General Petreaus.

With 16000 protesters arrested, independent news media closed, a 15 yr prison sentence for genuine reporting of the news and new food rationing in Russia, I struggle to see where this is voluntary

16,000 naughty Russians out of a population 146 million. Putin, with a popularity varying between 60-80% - 71% currently - must be filling his boots

ttbn

Good for you. The Germans were once different people. I occasionally listen to Vladimir Jaffe talking of his life growing up in the USSR. He hated it and left for the USA the first chance he got.

The main interest I have following this is to see how well the Ukranians can stand up to the Russian Army. If you are right about Russian paranoia about their security, how much of their army do you think they would be prepared to lose? They have a controlled media there, so it is probably a matter of what Putin is prepared to sacrifice.

Most of the expert analysis on Russia invading Ukraine was that the war would end quickly. What would Jules think about the people helping him pay his legal fees?

ttbn, a politician with a genuine popularly rating of 71% can basically do as he likes.

SM, likes to call me Pauliar, as he once claimed on the Forum that he being of superior legal knowledge could say; 'Cry Baby' Porter would be paid $10 million + by the ABC, receive a grovelling apology and 100 ABC staff would be sacked to pay for it all. AND Porter had nothing to worry about. How wrong was he, Porters out on his ear.

Paul

I think that the reason for Putin's popularity might relate to Milgram's research, which shows that a similar percentage of people will follow direction given by someone perceived as authoritative. With Putin having great control over what information Russians can access there aren't too many alternative authorities for them to listen to, but at least there are some.

Fester,

How many troops is Putin prepared to lose? Who knows. And that brings us to the relativism of the multiculturalists who think everybody thinks the way we do. They do not, so what we think we would do in their situation is meaningless. People smarter than I am say that culture is firmly planted by the age of 3 years.

Shadowminister's biggest problem is his lack of cultural comprehension. He takes too much notice of what our own kind believes totally different 'others' will do, or should do.

Paul,

If you stop calling him Shonky, he might stop calling you Pauliar, which, I have to say, doesn't work as well as Shonky does. You win on imagination.

Yes. What would our politicians give to be so popular! Here, again, the difference between the West and the East is striking.

And yes. Some people seem to forget their previous totally incorrect predictions. The Shadow is no Nostradamus.

ttbn

I ascribe more to the idea of about two thirds of people following the prevailing authority. I think it might be more fundamental to human beings than culture. Not sure how pc/woke Milgram is these days, but I suspect that Putin's regime could be destabilised by giving Russians access to an uncensored internet.

Pauliar,

Once again, you are a liar and a fraud. The reason I call you that is because you continually lie.

You think that repeating the lie about Porter means that it will eventually come true.

I've challenged you to show where I said this and you have yet to do so.

ttbn, I call my friend, SM, on a thread until he calls me Pauliar, then I call him shonky. Vlads the most popular leader since 'Papa' Doc of Haiti, when Papa's popularity hit 247%, or was that 'Baby' Doc, no matter, they were both loveable kinda guys, and very popular with the people, well with those that lived long enough to love them.

Shonky, I gave you that link to your ridiculous claim about Porter, so many times. Fortunately for you it's now well hidden under a mountain of your BS.

Paul

You can call each other whatever you like. I cannot understand why you keep arguing when you know you will always disagree.

ttbn, he calls me a liar when in fact he couldn't lie straight in bed.

This is the type of person he is.

shadowminister quote, Tuesday 11th May 2021. Under Christian Porter and the ABC - Waiting Game

"The damages will likely reach several $m, with costs greater than $10m. The ABC will need to make a grovelling apology and fire another 100 employees to pay for it."

Paul,

You go to a lot of trouble to recall SM's bad calls. You do not lie. I believe you. But The Shadow suffers from a pathology that will not allow to him to admit that he is wrong, no matter what anyone says, no matter that there is evidence of what he wrongly prophesied.

Do you remember The Shadow? Comics, cartoon strips, wireless (that long ago) serials, even films I think. He was all fantasy, too.

Patrick Morgan is aware of the very different thinking of Putin. He writes that whereas most of us normally take notice of events happening around us and then try to understand them, Putin " ….. starts with his ideological fixations and then contorts reality into bizarre shapes so that it may live up to his preconceived expectations of it."

Hi ttbn,

I can just recall the comics and 'Shadow' a sort of evil character, he was not the most popular. They were a penny each, do you remember the Sunday comics in the papers, Ginger Meggs and The Potts being two I recall. The "wireless" another form of entertainment, not just for music and news but there were the evening plays etc, very entertaining.

As for Putin, hummm, I don't think he's off his chops like a Hitler, no great ideological slant, more like Stalin, who incidently was not a very good Communist, a cold calculating autocratic monster who ran the Cult of Stalin. Maybe its a Russian thing.

With regards to Porter- There is often a merging of propaganda and reality- on all sides- but one doesn't give support to the enemy- it's been acknowledged that the legal system and judges are vulnerable to propaganda on both sides- but usually in history there are biases- many appear to not have a voice due to socialist authoritarianism. In theory Aristotle's Politics saw government by rule of law as superior however it's still subject to the same vulnerabilities and arbitrariness of his other forms of government by sovereign. In a sense all courts are kangaroo courts. What does this mean for the foundations of democracy? I have returned to some of the concepts of monarchy.

Everyone perhaps becomes a bit crazy when someone steals what they think of as their lunch.

Politicians have told us that they were unprepared for the Covid pandemic because it was "unprecedented". The Russian/Ukraine war was "unthinkable". The fact is, though, that few things have had more precedents in history than plagues and wars. Yet, our elites have been 'surprised'.

These people are historical illiterates, and not fit to lead. Plagues have been well documented since the 16th Century. The Russian annexation of Crimea and the events in Donbas should have given an idea of Russia's intentions. Ukraine has always been important to its identity.

War is never 'unthinkable'. Non-thinking in the new, degraded West is.

Degraded West? The trinkets they are sending the Ukranians are causing the Russian Army some trouble, forcing Putin to seek soldiers from the Middle East and military aid from China. I don't think the Russian Army of old would have had such problems.

Pauliar,

I only call you Pauliar when you lie. Thanks for proving that you were a liar and a fraud by showing that I didn't say what you claimed.

Secondly, Russia now has about $2.4bn in bond payments in a few days that if it can't pay them in $ or Euros will cause Russia to go into default.