According to the latest news reports Russian President
Vladimir Putin has given final approval to legislation
allowing him to hold office for two additional six year
terms, opening the possibility for him to stay in power
until 2036.

The 68 year old Russian leader, has already been in
power for two decades. This may allow President Putin
to become "President For Life." He would be 83 or 84 in 2036.

Will Mr Putin ever leave on his own?

And how will this affect the Russian people and the rest
of the world?

Foxy,

Putin sees himself as a Tsar of Russia. Just the same way that Xi sees himself as the Emperor of China.

Both are trying to reinvent their nations and restore the greatness of their former empires. And whom better to be the head of state than themselves or as they would tell you "Well, someone has to do it so might as well be me."

This is the sort of thing that happens in a totalitarian or autocratic regime, whether it be an empire or kingdom.

This is what a lot of people have failed to recognise over the past half century especially with China and now the free democratic countries around the world are confronted by a belligerent China that is on a pathway of predatory expansion as it annexes territory around its periphery and spreads it's totalitarianism over other peoples all in the name of a Chinese Communist Empire that the Chinese nation-state sees as an extension of its imperial history.

And as Mr Opinion always like to say: I TOLD YOU SO.

That's the secret of stability !

Hi Foxy

Unfortunately Russians are, through their whole history, much more used to, and impressed by, Autocrats. With Putin being the latest.

Russia's only sustained experience of relative democracy was under Boris Yeltsin (President 1991 to 1999). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Yeltsin#Reception_and_legacy

The economic chaos during Yeltsin and collapse of the socialist "job-for-life" safety-net persuaded many Russians workers and pensioners in that era that Communism and Putin's autocracy did Better than Yeltsin's "democratic experiment".

Russians just don't have the democratic tradition to think as we do.

Behind Putin are many more of the Russian Intelligence Mafia (KGB now FSB) who have spread out to most of the government and private industry power and money ownership.

There is every chance someone like Putin will replace Putin in a 5 years or so.

Democratic opponents of Putin don't last long enough to make a difference - most lately Navalny - poisoned and now in gaol again http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny

Putin's drop in approval ratings from the usual 80% to around 45% now, though offers some hope, but its all very unpredictable.

I hope my pessimism is surprised by stronger democratic trends in Russia.

Hi Pete,

I agree that replacing Putin might change very little.

Another autocrat in the Kremlin would be likely to
follow Putin's example.

Putin's not going to step
down from office until he can feel secure that
his successor will respect his rights - and in
Russia, as you point out that is harder to achieve.

Putin is unlikely to find a peaceful
retirement when he leaves office. I suspect
that's why he'll try to stay in power.

cont'd ...

Democratic trends in Russia?

I can't see it happening any time soon.

Still, one can hope.

[Deleted for obscenity.]

Talking about real low-life scumbags has anybody see any LNP deviants lately?

No, but there's a Mr Opinion popping up whenever there's an opportunity to be opportunistic !

Hi Mr O,

Putin knows what lies ahead for him and he
will do everything to safeguard himself.
Autocrats are defeated by coups, revolts,
or as you point out they get shot (or go to jail).

Eenie, meany, miny, moe. Wide choice.

Has anyone read the journalist Masha Gessen's book
about Putin, "The Man Without a Face?"

Foxy,

Have you had a look at Putin's face?

How many times do you reckon he's been under the knife?

"The Man Without a Face?". The Man With Too Many Faces would be more like it.

I tend to see him more as The Man With The Blood Of Dead Children On His Hands. Or just low-life scumbag if you prefer.

Actually, I think he would be a big hit with the LNP deviants.

Democratic trends in Russia?
Foxy,
Won't happen, at least not while they're the most stable they've ever been !

Dear individual,

You claim: "Won't happen, at least not while they're the most stable they've ever been !"

What drugs are you on?

The Russian protests which started in January are said to be the largest since the 1990s and have been going on for two months now and have seen tens of thousands arrested.

The fact of life is not all countries, and there are many Russia included, that can afford the luxury of being a liberal democracy. Not surprisingly Donald Trump held a jealous admiration for strong men like Putin, Kimmy and Xi. Unfortunately The Donald proved to be no strong man, instead he proved to be nothing more than a boofhead, and the other three were laughing at him.

SteeleRedux,
Russians are way more patriotic than the Yanks or Aussies or any others ! Why ? They have what none of the others have, thousands of years of culture ! That's how you measure the success of a nation, not by crowds of foreign indoctrinated gits causing mayhem !

There's no denying public discontent in Russia.

According to news reports "Putin's approval ratings
still appear high, but are well below their peak.
Underlying the protests are frustrations at poor
standards of living, the dismal economic situation,
worsened by low oil prices and the pandemic, as well
as resentment at corruption and other political abuses."

We're told that "in many places local issues have
fused with wider complaints."

Then of course there's Mr Navalny who Russian
officials are portraying as a Western stooge even
though he's been careful to distance himself
from foreign governments.

Mr Putin's real problem according to news sources
is not his jailed opponent but the Russian people whose
dissatisfaction he harnesses. And their daily experiences
do as much to erode the Kremlin's authority.

While the president may prefer to ignore it - there's no
denying the current public discontent.

Will Russia ever become a democracy?

Is another question that needs to be asked.

Russia is huge. It's history is complex. And
it has not had democratic traditions. So
where its future lies is difficult to
predict.

I'd like to see someone try.

Vying for the undeserved is a very shaky base indeed to ruin common values !

Simon Tisdall writes:

" What does the prospect of a perpetual Putin mean
for the future? At home, more croneyism, more
repression, more national stagnation, more grand
larceny by his magic circle of crooks and charlatans."

"Abroad, more anti-western agitation and subversion, more
right-wing populist poison and more sniggering and
bragging about liberalism obsolescence."

We're told that Putin's 2024 CV reads like a roll call
of 21st century woes.

Tisdall says that - "there will be endless strife in
contested countries like Syria, Libya, and the Ukraine,
there will be a UN system mired in endless stalemate,
nationalist delusions will be peddled, elections
fiddled, opponents assassinated, wealth stolen, and
democracy in retreat."

Finally in summing up Tisdall says:

"Putin survives through the ruthless exercise of
power, spurned by malign intent, greed, and personal
spite. He will not name a successor for he can never
retire. He has too many enemies to ever rest easy."

.. more croneyism, more repression, more national stagnation, more grand
larceny by his magic circle of crooks and charlatans.
Foxy,
That has a rather familiar ring to it, when I think of Academia's relationship with the ABC here !

There's no disguising the facts according to several
commentators " that the present regime in Russia relies
on violence for its survival." We're told that "the main
force behind the explosions of anger and protests was
not just dismay in what the regime has done, but
a lack of hope for the future especially within
the generation of Russians under 35 years of age."
Putin has not offered any compelling forward vision.

Instead we're told that "He and his cabal cling to the
past, and an imagined one at that."

It appears that "Mr Navalny on the other hand urges substantive
change for Russia to be decided by Russia's citizens once Putin and Putinism are abolished."

Good luck with that. One can only hop-e.

Hi Foxy

Putin's overlong control of Russia (effectively 1999 to the present)
may be cut short, by ill health, many fervently hope (anyway). According to lightweight newspapers, eg: Nov 6, 2020's http://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/russian-president-vladimir-putin-step-down-observers-got-serious-disease/story/421258.html

"[Putin] may have plans to step down as early as January [2021 - it didn't happen] amid fears that he may have Parkinson's, a report has claimed.

[Putin's symptoms?] "he appeared to be in pain as he held the armrest of a chair. His legs also appeared to be in constant motion. Other signs like twitching fingers while holding a pen or a cup point towards the fact that he may be suffering from some health complication."

SUCH "EVIDENCE" IS THIN and usually based on Double or Triple hearsay.
__________________

More scholarly or Kremlinologist sources say his "ill health" is only a Kremlin fed distraction to give foreign observers and Russian oppositionists hope against the reality that (notoriously physically active Putin) may still be in power through 2040.

Here's one such more credible source http://jamestown.org/program/behind-the-rumors-of-putins-illness-distraction-or-signal-of-looming-changes-at-the-top/

___________________

Only Stalin has ruled Russia longer - Stalin in power 26 years (1927 until his death Alone

in 1953) after he had most of the better Doctors in Russia (usually Jewish) executed or Gulagged - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctors%27_plot

It appears that "Mr Navalny on the other hand urges substantive
change for Russia
Foxy,
Navalny looks very much like the Goaf Whitlam of Russia to me at this stage. Let's hope the Russians are smarter than the '70s voter of here !

Thanks Pete for the information and the links.

Alexei Navalny's campaign against corruption of
Russian officials have made him a target. He's
spent hundreds of days in jail, and his
failed poisoning and subsequent imprisonment has
catapulted him to the top of the international
agenda. We can only hope that he's not killed.

Although I don't like his chances of survival.

Foxy,

Putin can sleep at night knowing he has the blood of dead children on his hands so I don't think murdering Navalny will keep him awake.

Actually, I think Navalny is expecting Putin to do it and that he is deliberately sacrificing himself as a martyr for the cause of freedom and intends to go out as a hero of the people. Just the thing that Putin doesn't want and probably the only thing that is actually keeping him alive for now.

Mr O,

I'm not sure what's keeping Navalny alive.
Perhaps it's the publicity he's getting
in the West? We'll see how long that will last.

Also Putin's health is being questioned. Moscow
denies the fact that Putin may have Parkinsons.
Or that his health is a problem. We'll have to
wait and see for that as well.

Posted by Mr Opinion, Tuesday, 6 April 2021 3:48:49 PM

Putin sees himself as a Tsar of Russia. Just the same way that Xi sees himself as the Emperor of China.

Both are trying to reinvent their nations and restore the greatness of their former empires. And whom better to be the head of state than themselves or as they would tell you "Well, someone has to do it so might as well be me."

This is the sort of thing that happens in a totalitarian or autocratic regime, whether it be an empire or kingdom.

This is what a lot of people have failed to recognise over the past half century especially with China and now the free democratic countries around the world are confronted by a belligerent China that is on a pathway of predatory expansion as it annexes territory around its periphery and spreads it's totalitarianism over other peoples all in the name of a Chinese Communist Empire that the Chinese nation-state sees as an extension of its imperial history.

And as Mr Opinion always like to say: I TOLD YOU SO.

Answer- I agree with your hindsight and your foresight but not the reasons behind the problem. I would perhaps say that expansionism and scale and hard power and liberalism are the problems. Deneen would argue that Liberalism causes expansionism and scale and is a totalitarian principle. Aristotle said that government by law was superior because it was objective- but at a deeper level law is still subjective- and is also totalitarian in the way that it's often implemented as a universal truth. Totalitarian and universal in a sense appear to be synonyms.

Also law contemporarily in it's universality denies the right to self determination of peoples.

Some kingdoms are more limited in scale and are not expansionist and so may be relatively less dangerous than some liberal nations

Democracy has a principle that government should be of the people- but if the people become subverted and fragmented- so is stability. Democracy has been linked with Liberalism and is now often seen as synonymous- but in a sense contradictory.

In military operations they talk of crossing the security cordon- that thin line of control- the security forces seem to be all powerful but in reality they sweep their territory to find abnormalities to target- subversives hide behind normality so they can engage in strike and fade operations. Our safety is based perhaps on a fragile shell- constantly probed by enemies within and without. The trick of government and leadership is for the will of the power and the people to be in the same direction. The shifting shadows of good and evil, friend and foe, power and powerless, law and lawless- stability and chaos- freedom and tyranny- balance. Change your shoes- throw the trackers- your evil continues.

The pressure of population increases scarcity of resources and makes the world a more dangerous place- but some seek instability to prey on the weak.

I think it's time to consider that perhaps China should be broken up into at least four self governing nations- maybe Beijing, Shanghai, Canton, ...

In the jungle there is only predator and prey... those that hunt and those that run... aggression and fear. Humans at times- in their gentle arrogance- try to transcend this binary state- but the wise perhaps understand their own limitations- and understand that those with claims of enlightenment often drag us to yet unseen depths.

Alexis de Tocqueville believed that stability and democracy and equality required a return to local forms of government- Traditionalism.

Good Morning Canem Malum,

Thank You for your insights.
And for your detailed responses.

They are appreciated.

My pleasure Foxy- take care. I'm not always able to contribute- perceive politics as an engineer- and at the risk of boldness- a philosopher.

I may not say it often enough - but CM your
insights always provide food for thought.

According to some sources - Putin's health is not good.
He supposedly has cancer and Parkinsons.
Moscow denies it. But who knows. I guess we'll have to
wait and see.

Democracy will not work until we have a society in which every able-bodied, able-minded has the mentality to curb or actually forfeit greed & ego for the good of all !

Foxy,

I made up a poetic riddle just for you:

Q: When is a TSAR not a STAR?
A: When it's a rootin tootin shootin Putin.

Hi Mr O,

Thanks for the riddle.

Liked it!

Here's two quotes for you from Jimmy Fallon:

"Vladimir Putin celebrated his 63rd Birthday today.
He had a nice party, but it got awkward when two
of his friends got him the same country."

And -

"Vladimir Putin criticized the US for thinking it's
"always right." Then he went back to organize an
election where you can't vote " No."

It looks like this discussion has now run its
course.

Thanks to everyone who contributed.

I look forward to our next one.