China's centralised ability to manage Covid in 2020 has allowed China to gain on the US (a decentralised country unable to manage Covid). Australia?

See http://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-05/china-enters-2021-a-stronger-more-influential-power/13006408

plantagenet,

The virus is an engineered biological weapon and for some reason probably by accident got onto the streets of Wuhan and was readily suppressed because the Chinese knew exactly what they were dealing with but before it was mopped up it had found its way out into to wider world via Chinese travelling overseas.

The latest scuttlebutt is that this African strain of the virus is not only far more infectious but is also far more deadly and apparently the lockdown in the UK is because it has just been realised that it is far more deadly than the original.

Hi Mr Opinion

Given how much Covid has benefitted China's relative position compared to the US:

Yes it may be true Covid was engineered in a Chinese laboratory then by accident (or design) Covid leaked out to Wuhan's population. Its presence in Wuhan was hushed up by the CPP:

- until 10,000s of Wuhan Chinese and foreign citizens (in Wuhan) were infected

- with many travelling overseas thus ensuring a mass international infection (Pandemic) by early 2020.

On benefits to China's relative position see the "China's power on an upwards trajectory" sub-heading a quarter way down http://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-05/china-enters-2021-a-stronger-more-influential-power/13006408

COVID DIDN'T COME FROM A LABORATORY

After further study I maintain COVID was not made in a Chinese laboratory.

Western and/or Russian intelligence would have discovered any laboratory aspect (they didn't) and would have told the world (that didn't happen).

Some in the Trump Administration, including Trump, floated a Chinese laboratory theory. But the US's very large intelligence community found nothing to back up Trump's claims.

See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52496098 of 1 May 2020:

"US President Donald Trump has appeared to undercut his own intelligence agencies by suggesting he has seen evidence coronavirus originated in a Chinese laboratory.

Earlier the US national intelligence director's office said it was still investigating how the virus began.

But the office said it had determined Covid-19 "was NOT MANMADE OR GENETICALLY MODIFIED"."
____________________________

What is critical is the Chinese Government's estimate of:

- China's centralised authoritarian ABILITY to force an effective lockdown to arrest and reduce Covid's spread in China

- Compared to many Western nations' decentralised, libertarian, INABILITY to impose an effective lockdown.

THE US was the most-decentralised, libertarian, country almost guaranteeing the US WOULD BE THE HARDEST HIT.

The country with the most to gain from a virus wreaking the Chinese economy is the United States. At the time of the virus entering the Wuhan population, China was clearly winning the economic war with the US. What country would have the resources and the capacity to develop and deliver such a biological weapon, again the US. BUT, the best laid plans of mice and men, can and do go wrong. The bomb can always blow up in your face.

Look at poor old Bug Ridden Boris in the UK, hasn't got a clue, maybe the virus is his baby.

Hi Paul

Re "China was clearly winning the economic war with the US."

Yes China was gaining on the US but during the time of Covid China's relative growth has accelerated. See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52496098

"China's power on an upwards trajectory

At the end of 2019, China's GDP stood at US$14.3 trillion. This was two-thirds that of the US GDP of $21.3 trillion.

[Here'as the significant bit] The fallout from COVID-19 has ACCELERATED the trend in China's favour. The International Monetary Fund's latest growth forecasts suggest China's economy will jump from two-thirds to three-quarters the size of the US by the end of 2021.

And when cost differences are accounted for and the two economies are measured in terms of their respective purchasing power, China's GDP is actually already 10 per cent larger than the US.

According to the Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index, which tracks power in the economic, military, diplomatic and cultural domains, the US still comes out on top, but its lead over China has been cut in half since 2018. This mainly reflected losses by the US rather than gains by China.

...The past year has also delivered dividends for China's leaders domestically, with most citizens giving them HIGH MARKS for their handling of the public health crisis, despite some initial anger of the Government's early attempts to cover up the severity of the pandemic.

This reinforces already high levels of overall trust in the central government.

The contrast with the US in this regard is stark. In May, a cross-country survey revealed that 95 per cent of Chinese respondents had trust in their government, compared with JUST 48 per cent in the US."

Pete

Hi Pete,

The truth most likely is covid-19 is a mutated SARS virus passed from animal to human at the Wuhan wet market, nothing new in that. This one is a particularly bad virus, with a high transmission rate. My "conspiracy" theory makes for better discussion, and has an outside chance of being true.

The important issue now is how all, rich and poor, get access to a vaccine, and effectively get the pandemic under control, which it certainly is not at the moment. How authorities organises the roll-out of the vaccine, and don't cock it up, as Bug Ridden Boris in the UK appears to be doing. Later we do need an independent open investigation as to the cause, and how best to avoid such events in the future. China most certainly needs to be open and transparent as to what happened, and what mistakes were made.

Paul1405,

The scuttlebutt I have is that the covid-19 is definitely an engineered virus. Apparently has to do with the fact that it has a way of mutating that does not occur in nature.

Hi Paul

Yes most evidence suggest Covid came from a Wuhan wet market.

INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE

Of greater significance is whether China's Government (CCP) waited/covered up its spread from:

- China whose very centralised public health system did eventually contain it

via Chinese citizens, air & cruise-ship tourists, and foreign residents of Wuhan (wanting to flee the disease)

- into China's economic and stategic competitors.

Such competitors being decentralised countries with less police containment and medical control over their populations.

The major countries China would want to effect/Infect were the US, Russia, India, Japan and the EU.

A good trove of evidence is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#History

PPE equipment and VACCINES are other aspects China has the advantage of
Industrial Capacity

and Command Decision Government to Mass Produce to quickly make it available to its citizens.

Pete

Mr Opinion

You seem to want to propagate Trump's NEVER PROVEN CLAIM that Covid was a laboratory engineered virus.

Bacteria and Virus Epidemics/Pandemics have originated from CHINA by NATURAL CAUSES before - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics .

plantagenet,

I'm just letting you know what I have heard through the grapevine.

Take it or leave it, doesn't worry me.

I believe it to be true and to me it makes sense why China does not want it investigated and is trying to lay the blame on countries outside of China.

Mr Opinion

1. There are many more reasons "why China does not want" the Covid outbreak investigated, like:

- China's slow initial reaction in Dec 2019-Jan 2020 identifying Covid

- China's late notification of the World Health Organisation

and

- China allowing carriers of Covid to leave Wuhan.

2. I wouldn't fall into the ttbn trap of just repeating what one "hears" on the grapevine without the Internet Links that would amount to evidence.

3. Why hasn't any Western intelligence agency found evidence? Agencies would have every reason to publicise any "China Laboratory" evidence.

4. Or do you rely on Trump's much discredited personal word?

Pete

plantagenet,

Just have to wait and see who's right.

According to the latest figures the US and the UK have over 1,000 deaths per million population whereas China has only 3.

What amazingly good management.

Is Mise,

Even makes me think that China might have had a bit of inside information on the virus that the rest of the world didn't.

Like for example it was their brainchild and they knew how the rein it in!

Hi Is Mise

Yes CHINA'S SYSTEM IS ABLE TO HANDLE COVID SO MUCH BETTER THAN THE US.

Further supporting that thesis is: "Analysis: China and U.S. economies diverge over coronavirus response", 22 October 2020 at http://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-china-analysis-idUSKBN277066

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and China dealt with the spread of the devastating coronavirus pandemic in vastly different ways, and that split is reshaping the global battle between the world’s two leading economies.

...China’s official GDP numbers this week show not only that the economy is growing, up 4.9% for the third quarter from a year earlier, but also that the Chinese are confident enough the virus has been vanquished to go shopping, dine and spend with gusto.

China’s total reported death toll is below 5,000 and new infections are negligible, the result of draconian lockdowns, millions of tests, and strict contact tracing that set the stage for an economic rebound.

“China’s success in containing the virus has allowed its economy to rebound more quickly, and with relatively less policy support, as compared with other large economies,” said former senior U.S. Treasury official Stephanie Segal, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

...[as at 22 Oct 2020 in the US 221,000 people were dead from COVID] after a delayed federal response, partisan battles over mask-wearing and lockdowns, and plenty of public events that do not follow public health guidelines...millions of [Americans] out of work indefinitely, GDP is expected to shrink this quarter and the United States faces a gap in economic output that could last years.

“Obviously the U.S. government bungled it,” said Harry Broadman, a former senior U.S. trade official and managing director with Berkeley Research Group.

The singular authority of China’s Communist Party helped Beijing enforce contact tracing and lockdowns, Broadman said...

The real difference between the United States and China is Washington “has been arguing over stimulus issues on Capitol Hill and it’s still far too little and too late,” said Broadman, who has served under both Republican and Democratic presidents. “That has created more and more uncertainty on the part of business.”..."

And here was me thinkin' that the Chinese figure might just have been a tad fiddled with.

Hi Is Mise

Yes. If China had minimised its Covid Death figures, in a major way, Western News and Intelligence agencies would have been right onto it

and would have exposed China.

Pete

Plantagenet's response to Is Mise

Yes. If China had minimised its Covid Death figures, in a major way, Western News and Intelligence agencies would have been right onto it
and would have exposed China.

Response - So I have to ask - are you seriously kidding with information and evidence dating back to October 2019 - whereby WHO denied this pandemic as a "pandemic" until Mid January 2019 - whilst worldwide exposure running at such "deathly" levels.

Who is talking about "WHO"?

Western Intelligence agencies, who have 10,000s of investigators, are a far more effective instrument in determining if China has cheated on its COVID deaths.

plantagenet,

Who in their right mind would believe anything the Chinese have to say?

China, under the CCP, will never lead the world, but it may well divide it.

Of course, the CCP is most capable of shutting down a virus. Pretty logical really give the harder time liberal democracies have in temporarily shutting down liberties.

Chris Lewis,

The scuttlebut I got some time ago is that Covid-19 is an engineered virus ie biological weapon which somehow got out of the lab in Wuhan probably by accident.

I believe the quick and effective response by the Chinese to prevent it from decimating the population of China is because it is their brainchild and they knew how to handle it.

If they had come clean at the start the world would not have seen the massive pandemic that followed in the wake of the Wuhan outbreak.

Dear Mr MOPE

"Who in their right mind would believe" Western intelligence agencies (about which You know nothing) missed any Chinese lab.

Why do you believe, without EVIDENCE, China is mishandling its COVID response more than the Trump is?

Well said Chris Lewis :)

plantagenet,

I never said that I believe China is mishandling its COVID response.

But I do have confidence in the scuttlebutt I got about the source and nature of Covid-19.

Time will tell. Maybe we will just have to wait until historians and sociologists are in a position to explain what happened.

Dear MOPEY

Yes all you have left is belief in "scuttlebutt" slang usage meaning "rumor or gossip".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scuttlebutt

Yes "time will tell" most things eg. whether you fail to graduate High School :)

UPSWING IN COVID IN CHINA - BUT STILL DOING MUCH BETTER THAN US

China source say to me:

As Chinese authorities struggle to keep the country’s coronavirus-free status mostly intact, a new outbreak has left more than 22 million people under lockdown. Over the past few weeks, China has reported 109 cases per day — a TINY FRACTION OF THE 250,000 DAILY CASES IN THE US, but a serious concern in a country whose leaders understand exponential growth.

The outbreak is concentrated in Shijiazhuang, the provincial capital of Hebei province, WHICH SURROUNDS BEIJING. Shijiazhuang is a critical transport and manufacturing hub for the region. As a result of its close proximity to the outbreak, parts of the capital are now under lockdown, too.

The lockdown is likely to widen, for two reasons. First, there are concerns about more contagious variants of the virus getting a foothold in China, such as the one that originated in the United Kingdom. While China still imposes significant restrictions on travel and a mandatory supervised quarantine period, there is enough movement, especially overland, to make that a plausible fear.

Second, the Lunar New Year—the most important annual festival for Chinese families—is approaching on Feb. 12. Last year, the coronavirus erupted just before the holiday. Making sure people don’t have to spend another festival week in lockdown by crushing the outbreak now is critical, both for China’s own public relations and for the benefit of the domestic economy. The Lunar New Year is a big spending week.

CHINA DEVOLOPED VACCINE NOT AS GOOD

Another blow. Beijing suffered another setback this week after the Chinese-developed COVID-19 vaccine proved far less effective than its foreign counterparts. The vaccine was already lagging behind in trials, in part because China’s relative coronavirus success left it with a smaller pool of data to draw on, forcing it to outsource to countries such as Brazil.

But at 50.2 percent efficacy, the final product is only just over the standard for deployment. Earlier results claimed higher efficacy, but the Brazilian trial authorities downgraded the results when applying better standards.

Chinese state media is trying to spin the failure as a success, but it is a big hit for Beijing as vaccine diplomacy heats up and countries without homegrown efforts seek to inoculate their populations. China has already promised tens of millions of doses to Belt and Road countries, but elites in those countries are now likely to seek more effective U.S. or European vaccines.

It’s likely that China will try to develop a second vaccine using the techniques that were so successful in the United States—and possibly by reverse-engineering other countries’ technologies or stealing intellectual property. By that point, it will hopefully be less needed.

See "United States and China clash over WHO investigation of coronavirus orgins in Wuhan" of 19 Jan 2021

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-19/us-and-china-clash-over-who-covid-19-mission-in-wuhan/13069016

Hi Pete,

Just by the way, there were a couple of articles in today's Australian about herd immunity.

We've heard about it since early last year, but it's rarely defined. I'm presuming it means that, if enough people get vaccinated, say 90 %, then the remaining 10 % are a little less likely to get infected.

OR it could mean that some people have a natural immunity.

OR is it a myth ? Created by people reading too many Marvel comics ?

As I understand it, people who have been vaccinated may still be carrying the virus and passing it on to each other, oblivious. So any UNvaccinated person coming into contact with them can catch the virus - and pass it on.

So is any magic 'herd immunity %' target completely futile ? After all, in any given week, most of us bump up, figuratively, against a hundred people, in the street, on the bus, in the supermarket: if just one of them was carrying the virus, an unvaccinated person could contract the virus. If not this week, then next week.

So 99.9 % of people vaccinated may not give the remaining 0.1 % - or 25,000 Australians, 350 thousand Americans - any magic 'immunity' whatsoever.

Just saying :)

Joe

Hi Joe

Unfortunately I don't the answers on vaccination and herd immunity. They are out of my areas of knowledge.

Complexity expands to:

A. each person having 2 (rather than one vaccination) of One type of vaccine

OR

B. a vaccination using one type of vaccine. Then a vaccination with another type of vaccine a few weeks apart. Even experts now don't know if B. would be better.

Maybe start your own General Discussion thread on the vaccination-herd issues.

Cheers

Pete

Good questions Joe, as for 90% creating some kind of protection for the other 10%. I think the answer is not a little, but a lot of protection for others. Good doc on YouTube about the Plague in London 1665, made before this pandemic, in a crude way, a similar reaction from people. Also good one is on the Spanish Flu its there as well.

'natural immunity', some people claim they've never got a cold in their life, well I don't know.

What's the general opinion of these elite tennis players and their whinging about the "pain" they suffering. I say they should have called the whole thing off.