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The Forum > General Discussion > Trade War With China

Trade War With China

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The other epidemic, Leftists crapping their pants & verbal Diarrhea are approaching Pandemic status. The realisation that having gone to Uni is no longer an automatic entitlement to be mollycoddled from cradle to grave by taxpayers is the most scary aspect for them !
Posted by individual, Friday, 15 May 2020 8:25:50 AM
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China and Aus have an FTA, and to all extents Australia has been complying with the terms and conditions, while China largely has tried to skirt them.

A decade ago I was part of a project to build a huge new factory and after issuing tenders we looked at buying about $50m of prefabricated steel for the buildings from China, with the local refinery at Wollongong quoting roughly $100m. Preferring to buy locally we attempted to negotiate the price down, but as the locals pointed out the price we were paying China was just above the price of the iron ore to fabricate the steele, which the refineries in China were also paying.

That Chinese companies could sell the steel at such low prices was due to huge subsidies from the Chinese government and was a clear sign of dumping which violated the FTA. We purchased the steel from China and the local refinery closed one of its 2 blast furnaces.

The subsequent anti dumping tariff on Chinese steel was done exactly as per the FTA.

China in turn has tried a series of extra legal measures to retaliate such as delays in customs etc, and is now threatening an 80% anti dumping tariff on Aus barley. If they cannot justify this Aus can retaliate and this would be the start of a trade war.

That China is now using trade for political leverage is a two sided weapon especially as it is alienating all it neighbours. Australian is standing up to the bullying and should do so. The weapon that Aus can use is its relationship with other countries such as the US.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Saturday, 16 May 2020 6:04:19 AM
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Not being an expert in international trade all I can say is that
China does not seem to be worth the trouble.
We need to find other customers.
Some seem to think that China is untouchable militarily but a couple of
Collins class submarines could cripple China in a week or two.
Well, so long as they could get their torpedoes replaced, if not
a follow up email would finish China for the duration.
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 16 May 2020 8:34:45 AM
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It was suggested earlier by GY; "anyone ( in Australia) who relies on trade with China for their business or their national wealth has rocks in their head and should diversify immediately", a number of god fearing democratic countries were suggested in China's place, India, Indonesia and Vietnam were three named, countries with substandard labour laws, and pay coolie wages. I responded with naming Bangladesh as another fantastic country whose cheap labour could be exploited by wealthy Aussie concerns, the ideal low quality, big profit margin, Bangladeshi shirt from Kmart!

We have news on that front; "Australian clothing brands are cancelling, delaying payments or asking for big discounts on millions of dollars' worth of orders from Bangladesh, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the women who make their clothes. Advocates say some of the world's lowest-paid garment workers are poised to be the biggest losers."

Can we say; anyone (in Bangladesh) who relies on trade with Australia for their business or their national wealth has rocks in their head and should diversify immediately!
Posted by Paul1405, Saturday, 16 May 2020 1:17:23 PM
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Paul,
Do you think the Indian & Bangladesh people would be worse off if we
diverted purchase of the things we buy from China to their countries ?
Remember India has a high tech industry much more so than we do these days.
India has always had a much more diverse engineering than we had.
I remember when I first started working I was shown Indian lathes and
other machine tools that like we never made in Australia.
India is one of the top software developers in the world.
Hyderabad is very competitive with Silicon Valley.
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 16 May 2020 4:29:17 PM
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Bazz,

Do you believe we have total control of the market? Where buyers are beating a path to our door in these tough economic times to purchase our commodities. Trade with China 2018/19 was, exports $153 (32%) billion, imports $82 billion (19%). India in the same period exports $23 billion (5%) imports $8 billion (2%). We enjoy a strong trade advantage with both countries. The major difference is the size in dollar terms of that imbalance. With China its $71 billion, India $15 billion. Do we maintain the China trade advantage while increasing exports/imports with India, how do we do that in these times of global recession?

We may reasonably hold the line with China, but lose out badly with India and others (US and Japan) because of the coronavirus pandemic. Not counting travel and services, our top exports by far are mining and farming. Imports again without services is petroleum products and motor vehicles. We could probably buy more Indian manufactured tech goods and other services, but our exports would be dependent on a growing Indian economy, which is not likely for some time.
Posted by Paul1405, Saturday, 16 May 2020 6:18:29 PM
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