Earlier this week the Washington Post had a series of articles and presentations following the release, under FOIA , of US government reports on Afghanistan.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/

http://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2019/12/09/afghanistan-war-metrics-were-manipulated-to-highlight-battlefield-success-according-to-bombshell-wapo-report/

Read it for yourself but essentially it says that the US government (primarily the Obama regime) and military have lied over the past 18 years about the success of operations in Afghanistan and the prospect for a successful conclusion to the war.
We know that Trump wants out but can't just up and leave without something to show for it. When he even tried negotiating with the Taliban all hell broke loose.

Australia has around 400 personnel still there. Its time that we simply packed up and came home. There is nothing more to be gained by being there. Everyone knows that as soon as the west leaves, Afghanistan will revert to kind and the old warlords and Islamists will take over. It can't be stopped.

If done properly by telling the US and the world that we've simply decided that we aren't going to risk another life on a failed proposition, it might even be the spur to give Trump and his domestic allies the cover to also simply withdraw.

Staying there was always the wrong call. After 9/11 the US should have gone in, overthrown the pro-bin Laden government and left. Upon leaving and thereafter, the US should make it clear to the Afghans that if they again become a base for anti-US forces, they can expect a further short visit by the USAF.

Obama lead for eight years not 18, and the last four he did not control either house
Yes leave Bush Blair and Howard never should have got us involved
In the DNA of that part of the world to miss use aid and the west
Leave Iraq to the RUSSIANS, get out of the middle east too Russian can have it all

Belly,

This is about Afghanistan!

There is little doubt now that the US military has been gilding the lily from the moment they arrived and that governments have been encouraging and exaggerating this from the time things started to go off coarse - ie the late Bush years and the whole of the Obama period.

The issue as to why and how this all happened is not my current point.

The point is that there is clear evidence that the Afghan adventure is a lost cause. Democracy will never come to this region. The women will not be liberated. Bacha bazi will continue. The warlords will eventually rule. The drug trade will flourish.

There's no point being there. But 400 Australians are there - for no good reason other than that no government is brave enough to tell the truth.

Trump wants to get out of Afghanistan but with all his other travails its a bridge too far. Even when he wanted to have talks with the Taliban (or as St Julia called them - the Tali Band) the democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) went ape-sh!t. Not because its the wrong thing to do but because they want to play politics rather than do what's good for the country. So Trump is boxed in between the State Dept wanting to stay, the military and the arms industry also and the Democrats wanting play politics.

So ScoMo could make a big statement on an international scale by writing to Trump explaining our decision. Make a big play of how we remain the US's best of friends, but friends need to speak the truth to each other. That we have lost faith in Afghan project and won't risk Australian lives any longer. That we hope the US will also decide that the lives of their young boys isn't worth it. That we will always be beside the US but not on failed projects. That if they feel the need to chastise the Afghan government in the future, we'll be right there with them.

But for now we're outta there.

mhaze, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought all this middle East hoo-haa was about oil.
If that is the case Mr T is fighting a losing battle from within his own parliament, because we have a lot of vested interests like Rockefeller to name just one, very big one.
So by suggesting that our military leave and leave it to the Russians is a very bad idea, because that's exactly what everyone that's not on our side, wants.
The Russians have done all manner atrocities to get their hands on oil and gas, as have the western world, in particular, the USA.
You can see that, if I am even close, it is not possible at this time.
It may become possible if/when the electric vehicle industry becomes a real majority and fossil fuel dependency drops away dramatically.

mhaze not much oil in Afghanistan, but a lot of rocks
Was aware of the difference between Iraq, still hold my view
A Victoria cross Hero, is again under investigation
But will we here about the primitive way cash heals the pain of a victim's family over there
Will There be investigations into terrorist filth murdering women and children in marketplace bombing
Leave them murder each other

The whole Middle East/Afghanistan situation has nothing to do with oil.
If the west was not there, they would be down on their knees to sell
their oil to all comers.
The US only imports very small amounts of oil from the Middle East.

Enough is enough. The west has tried hard enough to sort out their
governmental systems all to no avail.
They are basically unable to administer a democratic government.
Lebanon is the most westernised of all their countries.
Look at the corrupted governments torn apart by religious differences.
Their religion demands a religious government compliant to Sharia.

We can see that won't work in this age but they cannot see that.
Their whole history demonstrates it.
The only solution I see is for the west to isolate those countries
and return their religious compatriots to their home countries before
those features start affecting our countries.
Did you see Eddy Obieds homecoming this weekend ?

Bazz saw that MAGGOT get released hope [rumor says] he is on his way back after other charges, others should follow
It is about oil however, wish we could find another power source fast
Oil cash is used by some very low life countrys there to push their faith and culture
Leave remains my view
Let them kill each other let Russia have it
Saudi Arabia is as bad if not worse than Iran

A thousand times more than needs to be said about that part of the World, has already been said ! These people can't be helped because for some strange reason peace seems as unacceptable to them as reason !

Afghanistan has nothing, ABSOLUTELY nothing , to do with oil. There's no oil there and even if there was, the US is now an oil exporter, is completely self-sufficient in oil and has no need for any Middle-Eastern oil.

Afghanistan is all about trying to ensure that it doesn't revert to being a haven for international terrorists.

But the plan to make it a civil society has utterly failed, so it should be abandoned. Not a single western life should be wasted on the project.

Instead, leave and leave them to their own devices. If they then do revert to being a haven for international terrorists, go in, bomb them back to the stone age and leave them again. Treat it like a vaccine boost that you have to do every 20 years or so.

Leaving Afghanistan wouldn't leave it to the Russian. They had more than their fill in the 1980's. It was one of the main reasons the USSR fell. They don't want anything to do with the place.
And even if they did go back, who cares

Mhaze, the US is not really an oil exporter although many Americans
think they are. The do export some light oil as they have more of that
than they can use, but they have to import heavy oils to make their
light oils usable. Other countries, eg Venezuela have only heavy oil
and have to buy light oil to mix in to be able to refine it into petrol.
Because of the various grades of fuels needed for different purposes
it is all very complex, for diesel, the new ships bunker fuels
required from the 1st January, plastics manufacturing etc etc.

No one is an exclusive importer or exporter.

Bazz,

The US is now the largest oil producer in the world. Additionally, as of last month, they are a net exporter of oil ie they export more than they import. And the level of exports continues to grow. (Whatever happened to peak oil?).

While it is true that they still need to import certain grades of oil, this is done for economic reasons ie they could produce those grades but its cheaper to import it, at least at the moment.

But the main point here is that the US is now completely independent of the M-East oil countries and/or OPEC. In the past, the US was concerned to ensure the Straits of Hormuz were kept open. Now they don't care but could easily close the Straits if they needed to bring China into line.

At the end of all that, Afghanistan holds zero economic interest for the US. And even less for Australia.

It seems that Trump will announce a significant reduction in troop numbers there in the next few weeks. If ScoMo doesn't want to look like he's just tagging along, he should get ahead of that announcement.

Mhze said; (Whatever happened to peak oil?)
Actually it occurred in December 2005. After the falling production
and price rise to 2008 crashed the economy an old technique of
fracking was resurrected and applied successfully.
However that is in trouble now with falling profits and well counts.

I agree that the sooner out of those benighted countries the better for us all.
We do need to stop them following the troops though and bringing all
thos historical problems with them.
The US, Iran, the Russians and the Saudies do not control the Hormuz
Straits, that privilege belongs to the Insurance companies.
They shut and open it by sending emails.

Bazz,

"Actually it occurred in December 2005. "

Well only if you redefine what peak oil means/meant. Previously we were informed that peak oil would occur because we'd start running out of the resource. Demand would remain but supply would dry up.

But that never happened. Now we find those who fell for the whole thing redefining the term. Now its about crude oil peaking or something.

The critics of peak oil always said that, as traditional oil became less accessible, other sources of supply would come on line.

Enter fracking.

Now we are informed by those same peak oil promoters that fracking is a passing phase. Ever since it started to take off, we been told that fracking will soon decline or go bust. And when it doesn't happen, we get told it'll happen soon.

Its now estimated that there are over 2 trillion barrels of tight oil in North America. Fracking isn't going to end in our lifetimes.

As I've said many times on this forum, man has never run out of a resource and never will.

man has never run out of a resource and never will.
mhaze,
Never say never !

Mhaze, yes you are right the peak was redefined as peak crude oil.
The problem is fracked oil is actually known as "tight oil" for a good
reason as it comes slowly out between cracks and grains of sand or rock.
I am no geologist so I cannot describe it better.
Never the less the big problem is that most fracked wells are just
about finished in three years. That is why there are selloffs of
drilling licences to keep the companies operating.
That was what BHP did and then got out. The bankruptcy rate is high.
The present fall in active wells will be interesting to watch.
For some reason they seem to be reluctant to start fracking here in
Australia despite suggestions that an area near Coober Peady looks promising.
Another problem it is "light" oil and must be mixed with heavier grades which need to be imported.
Companies are watching it all very closely.