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The Forum > General Discussion > The thin blue wave

The thin blue wave

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The democrats were making the mid term elections all about Trump.

With all 435 Congressional seats up for re election a traditional mid term swing against the incumbant President and polling showing a swing against Republicans a blue tidal wave was predicted to wipe out the Republicans in congress.

In the senate there was a different picture with only 1/3 of the senate seats up for re election many being already held by democrats the hope was that 51/49 republican hold on the senate could be reduced to at least 50/50.

The result was extremely disappointing for the democrats, the swing against Trump was far smaller than the swings against Obama and Clinton in congress, and in the senate, the Republican hold on the senate looks to have increased, while Obama and Clinton both lost their Senates.

The result is that while Trump will struggle to pass legislation in Congress, and the Democrats will certainly try to launch investigations against him, Trump can also still veto Democrat legislation, appoint judges, and is at no risk of impeachment.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Friday, 9 November 2018 8:45:41 AM
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Yes. The huge Blue Wave expected by the Democrats failed to materialise. An increase in the senate for the Republicans, and a small loss in Congress.

The Democrats will be an all mighty nuisance to President Trump, but they “ …. have nothing to offer other than protection for abortion rights and a life of empty poverty for their welfare-dependent constituency. It is a story that has already gone cold and will look colder still in two years’ time”. (Steve Kates, Catallaxy Files 8/11/18).

There was none of the 'blue wave” that the Democrats thought they would get. Unfortunately, that won't stop the leftier nutters from doing everything they can to drag Trump down instead of working for the good of America.

The Democrats have controlled Congress more than they have not; that never fazed Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush Senior. Donald Trump is quite capable of handling to situation, and his increased control of the Senate is unprecedented.
Posted by ttbn, Monday, 12 November 2018 9:54:00 AM
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Trump now has another target, he will blame the DEMOCRATS for his troubles
As he nears his own Waterloo, it will come via legal matters not impeachment, he is becoming more unhinged
Funny seeing him and those here, trying to turn what clearly is a loss in to victory
Posted by Belly, Monday, 12 November 2018 12:20:36 PM
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Belly,

"As he nears his own Waterloo"

Trump as Wellington?
Is that what you mean?
Posted by Is Mise, Monday, 12 November 2018 3:42:32 PM
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Ise Mise you may well be that annoying child in the back seat who chants are we there yet endlessly.
Be honest! you KNOW what it means to use Waterloo that way.
Why waffle?
Why ask child like questions? is that the best you can do?
Trump, his recent, last few days, behavior highlights he is not doing too well in the top paddock [head]
his end is insight, he will not get a second term,and may not be around for the full two years
Posted by Belly, Monday, 12 November 2018 4:43:03 PM
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Belly,

"Why ask child like questions? is that the best you can do?"

When talking to the childlike, it helps.
Posted by Is Mise, Monday, 12 November 2018 4:49:24 PM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

Whew. Really? Where to start?

Well before the election I called a 30 seat majority since albeit it was a touch above the consensus from sites like FiveThirtyEight I thought they were on a roll. They are on track to put 38 in the bag, many of them women. The “blue wave” predictions was for 40+ seats so they were shy of that, but not by much. Especially given that the 30 lost by Obama in 2014 was described as a wave.

In the Senate there were three times as many Democrat seats being tested compared to Republican, 24 to 8.

Six years ago when the Class 1 seats were voted for, the Democrats had taken 3 off the Republicans, but they did not have an incumbent President touting for them this time. Yet People like Elizabeth Warren increased their margins significantly.

“ the Senate map for 2018 was one of the worst maps in modern memory for Democrats. They had 26 seats up, including 10 in states Trump won. Of those 10, five were states Trump won by double digits; three of those five (Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota) were places where Republicans won on Tuesday.) And in the only state Hillary Clinton won where a Republican incumbent was running -- Nevada -- Democrats won.”
http://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/09/politics/2018-democrats-midterms/index.html

While definitely not a Tsunami it certainly wasn't a thin blue wave.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Monday, 12 November 2018 7:03:53 PM
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Sorry 'majority' should read 'turnaround'.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Monday, 12 November 2018 10:25:10 PM
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It was clear even 12 months before the midterms the senate was a bridge too far for the Democrats
IF the thought it was a Republican victory come because they increased their senate numbers
Then those holding that view no very little about AMERICAN POLITICS
Posted by Belly, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 4:42:26 AM
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SR,

It is great that you have such great 20/20 hindsight, however, given that at just about every mid term election for a new president has resulted in the loss of the house and a swing against the president in the senate. Trump looks to extend the Republican majority in the senate to 53 with the democrats winning 38 seats in the house which is far stronger a result in comparison to democratic presidents Clinton lost both the senate and the Congress, and Obama (who got a Nobel prize for doing nothing except being black) lost 6 senate seats and 60 congressional seats.

At best the result was underwhelming for the democrats.

Belly

The result is that while Trump will struggle to pass new legislation, he will be able to block anything the democrats pass, and continue to appoint judges, impeachment is off the table, and Trump has a hostile congress that at the next election he can blame for most of his failures.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 7:25:05 AM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

Back when those seats were lost under Obama the Republicans took 51.7% of the popular vote. Obama of course was dealing with a huge financial crisis after the GFC and having to make unpopular decisions in a country that had been economically hammered by Republican mismanagement.

This time Trump with an apparently booming economy, largely due to the earlier repair managed by Obama and his team, yet the Democrats took a whopping 52.4% of the popular vote.

The more I think about it the more impressive this result seems.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 8:19:49 AM
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The main effect of the Democrat majority in the Congress is that no new legislation will be passed. That's just a nuisance for Trump. The real power lies in the senate, where non-elected judges and officials are appointed. These people can make changes without reference to Congress; and that's why the Democrats tried so hard to keep a keep a conservative judge out. Nothing to do with his character or sexual allegations - he has tipped the balance in Trump's campaign favour; and that's a big Democrat loss.
Posted by ttbn, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 8:50:35 AM
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In the meantime, America is enjoying a 3.7% unemployment rate, and 4.2% growth rate, along with a better trade balance and increased international respect rather than the big joke it became with Obama.
Posted by ttbn, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 8:56:46 AM
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My view of the word can not see any increased respect for America
rather the opposite in fact, national debt remains huge and as this days stocks say the economy is fragile
Posted by Belly, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 2:47:39 PM
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Dear Belly,

Yes it is petty amazing isn't it. When Rudd threw money at the economy to stave off the GFC and the huge increases in unemployment seen in other countries he was pilloried.

When Trump blows the national debt out without a crisis in sight he is lauded by the right.

Strange times indeed.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 13 November 2018 3:53:28 PM
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SteelRedux so very true, some of our opponents here however get their information from the paper the fish and chips came in.
Any clear eyed in depth look at the continuing count, and it is far from over, will show Democrats are winning in places they have not for a long while
Trumps trying to fake that footage to lynch a reporter is pure Trump, feed them lies they are not bright enough to know that is
Surely if the man has any defense it must be that he is in fact in the early stages of dementia?
Posted by Belly, Wednesday, 14 November 2018 5:11:21 AM
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Am I right in my faulty memory, that the Democrats gained twelve million more votes than the Republicans in these mid-terms ? That they won the crucial governorships in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (and maybe Michigan) ? A senatorship in Arizona ? Control of the House of Reps ?

As a centrist, I'm very concerned that the American political scene seems to be hollowing out, to be splitting into an idiot right and an idiot 'left', between a drift towards born-to-rule white-nationalism on one side and woolly Corbynism on the other.

I hope and pray that the Democrats get enough sense to put Clinton out to pasture. Surely, in a country of 350 million, there are better options than the same-old, same-old ? As long as Clinton has the power to cripple any rivals, the Democrats will stay in the wilderness.

Joe
Posted by Loudmouth, Wednesday, 14 November 2018 9:24:24 AM
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Loudmouth while agreeing Democrats should no go too left Clinton was the wrong choice once she should never get another chance
Yes this is the democrats biggest turn around from Watergate
Trump spins and his followers follow but he is no winner
Posted by Belly, Wednesday, 14 November 2018 12:21:08 PM
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Will the Democrats try to impeach Trump?
Apparently there's quite a lot of evidence
against him from his own lawyer and others.
However, I gather that impeachment is a
complicated process in the US. Perhaps
they'll wait for Mueller to complete his
investigations. That is unless he gets
sacked by Trump in the meantime?
Not sure if in this case Trump can do that.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 14 November 2018 12:40:37 PM
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Foxy Trumps fall may not come via impeachment, in fact I do not think it will.
He has a good deal of other things that can drag him down
Tax , financial dealings, remember he has been bankrupt seven times
His use of family in the white house, and the truth behind theirs and his dealings with Russia may well come out
America has, for about 60 years, not been the country it claimed to be, right now even a Democratic landslide in two years can not put humpty dumpty land back together again
Posted by Belly, Wednesday, 14 November 2018 3:40:52 PM
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Dear Belly,

It's all too much for me trying to keep up with
what's happening in the US. It just seems like
something out of John Cleese's movies.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 14 November 2018 5:30:35 PM
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Foxy in that case you are keeping up! all you need to know about America is in those few words it has become a joke within a nightmare
Some things never change America ,that country men my age grew up in love with, never was the America Hollywood told us it was
As Trump rips the country in two, we must never ever think such a country can be relied on to defend us.
The continuing slow but sure Democratic wave is full of hope
But Trumps demented rage will still exist powered by that fact he now has a very real enemy to unload on
And his supporters long ago gave up any interest in truth, we live in interesting times but those times are threatening too
Posted by Belly, Thursday, 15 November 2018 4:19:30 AM
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As I said at times you can fight fire with fire but you can't fight stupidity with stupidity.
Posted by individual, Thursday, 15 November 2018 6:11:00 AM
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morning indy, please understand that truth should not stop you trying
Posted by Belly, Thursday, 15 November 2018 11:29:13 AM
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