What will be the impact on the economy? put Labors intention to change negative gearing and what is the result
ABC this morning debate by financial planners and investors including once Liberal leader John Hewston, well worth finding a pod cast.
Talk of ten to fifteen percent fall in housing prices, and it has already begun.
Put trade war Trump vs China knowing both country's are over loaded with debt, are we wise to be careful
what do others think?

Not a bubble? not a financial crisis in waiting? can we be sure
If the pod cast exists it will surely, you on hearing it will not be getting the opinion of a street corner expert, those involved have very real cred
One foretold the GFC a year before it took place
Other contributing things that may, only may, impact if interest goes up is wage stagnation, how do you find that extra money.
If you are on an interest only loan you may suffer even more

Dear Belly,

Housing prices in our area are still rising.
And the ones buying are not locals. They're
being priced out of the market. It's overseas
investors doing the buying by the look of things.
What is disheartening - they're pricing young
families out of the market. And then these investors
seem to be putting their properties up "for lease."

The government needs to ensure that anyone who
buys property in this country - has to actually live
here. Otherwise the money is going overseas.
And families and young people are being priced out of
owning property.

Foxy the Chinese buyers did that in Sydney but that stopped after China put tighter rules in place
Sydney has lost 4 percent ,it lead the rises and seems to be leading the retreat.
Every one on the program agreed ten to fifteen percent will be the correction and not sure that did not mean country wide
Constant reports in Sydney media that about 18 percent of current home owners are in mortgage stress right now,how many of them are interest only payers?
Seems to warn any interest rise will find them paying more for a house, because of price falls, is worth less and one they can not sell without loss

The rich are getting poorer.

House prices are falling. But wait, didn't BS say negative-gearing and a capital gains tax concession (which supplanted fair indexing of the cost base) were why house prices rose before the fall?

Some capital city prices fell before and are still falling now.

Simplistic class-war, BS explanations don't fit, but Labor won't let that ruin a good narrative.

Sorry but as no Labor government, state or federal has any impact on NSW my thread remains a warning.
Not that the sky is falling but some big hail may be about to.
Find that pod cast, hear those voices, hear them say if the figures they name, not me, come to pass it will be the biggest correction in the housing market in 50 years.
They did not predict total recession, in fact said some would benefit.
But no one thing, including housing can forever deliver profits without one day confronting correction.
TOO hear that high stock markets in America and a supposed 6 percent per year rise in China mask the rising amount of debt both country's are in

Do me a favor, please? duck on to the SMH online site read a story about the next recession, it frighted me and I live without a cent of debt.

Sorry my fault this thread was unwanted, sorry I hogged it and sorry my sure and certain conviction a monetary crises is coming, just in time for a Labor government got in the way.
As was the case in the GFC housing and lending here, interest rates that must rise one day.
And the international borrowing that has the world in more debt now than at any time in the past 50 years maybe ever
Will not post two threads at once again, and will put more thought and much more restraint in to any future subjects for discussion,
Lets talk more about this after it takes place

Labour certainly don't need another excuse to spend billions of wasteful money. Must say Australian voters are very very dumb.

runner no thoughts on the impact of my theory? do not wish to say I am wrong or right? Labor did us proud in the GFC would your mob do as well if my scenario came to pass next week?

Labor did us proud in the GFC would your mob do as well if my scenario came to pass next week?
Belly,
That's news to me, I thought that's what they used Costellos Futures Fund's billions for, to get us over the line so to speak ?

Please correct me if that money wasn't used for that but what was it used for or at least where did it go ?
Can someone from both sides corroborate the use of those billions ?

individual it seems your fears even opinions about Labor are based on wrong information.
Labor did not drain that fund it still exists.
From here it gets muddy, yes they put us in debt, to fight off a recession, some country's came out of the GFC much worse off, are indeed still trying to get back on track.
ARE YOU Aware how much our debt HAS INCREASED under this government?
Well informed as you are I know you understand, and like me am appalled, by the fact this government has put us in even more debt

Belly

to say that Labour did us proud during the gfc is just one of those lefty lies repeated often to excuse total incompentance and irresponbility. A 2 year old knows to take a country with a surplus and create institutionisled debt was nothing short of economic vandalism atn its worst. Your grandkids and future generations will be paying for such reckless spending depsite Labour finding some members of the swamp backing their craziness.

indy in truth you should research the GFC and just how well, and why, we came through it.
Must be hard typing with your hands over your eyes but find goggle it, the current amount we are in debt, then compare it with what it was the day Abbott took over

https://plus.google.com/u/0/114557437148478537820
https://www.behance.net/suanonnhap5eea
https://twitter.com/suanonnhapkhau

SMH today, read front page, online, news story about world economy, any day, including this day read housing stress and how many are struggling to pay loans , and the impacts of lower prices and higher interest rates, include Financial review SMH in your reading

Belly, I'm no economist but somewhere in all this I can't get past the feeling that the problem is more to do with existing home buyers, as their monthly dept will rise slightly.
If they don't sell any time soon they will merely have to live a more 'modest' lifestyle, ie; no wine and roses.
I think that will be a good thing as Aussies have become such arrogant, entitled pigs, a 'correction' is not near enough to bring them back to earth.
I would rather see a recession or what should happen is a depression.
Then let's see how they like it.
Aussies have been living WAY beyond their means for decades now.
They need a good slapping to realise their failures.
All these Hollywood toys, jet ski's, SUV's, Fancy houses, Oh I could go on, but I think everyone gets it.
Now as for the first home, or new home, buyers, they will probably be better off, because the rise in interest rates compared to the drop in house prices might just work in favour of the first home/new home buyer, especially when you add the first home buyers grant, which is a cash payment by the govt to help the new home owner get into their own home.
I have not done any numbers but I suspect that the ten to fifteen percent drop in the price of a house will result in a lesser monthly payment even with the slight increase in interest.
So anyone buying their first home will be in very good stead.
Even someone buying second hand I think won't be too badly affected, and in fact might be slightly better off.
Anyway if someone has crunched any numbers I certainly would like to hear from them and their findings.

ALTRAV well yes what you say is true but only for new home buyers yet to get in to the market,, if they can get a loan.
I wanted on starting this thread to highlight the great difficulty's those who currently are buying a home,and who are already over committed will be in.
Your view about to much debt and in my view, the shear stupidity of being unable to pay cash so getting in huge debt, is there to be seen.
Every day including this one, papers tell us we as a nation owe twice our annual income, let that sink in.
We know well we should, world trade is currently a very real danger of forcing a recession, one will come in any case, that holds huge concerns for us all.
Those in debt even more,, many investors bought home after home flipped them for a profit then got in more debt buying another, they are going to be the first victims of lower prices

US housing markets going to denonate again soon, told you all 18mths ago.
The government bailed the banks out last time so there was no need for them to change their lending habits.

Armchair Critic said- "US housing markets going to denonate again soon, told you all 18mths ago. The government bailed the banks out last time so there was no need for them to change their lending habits."

Answer- Yes you always seem to make sense Armchair Critic. I agree last time they should have let the banks fail. Not sure what other competing interests are in play this time but generally it sounds like the best course of action to let them fail.

CM and AC, I agree completely.
The problem is, as long as we have scum like the Rothschilds, the big banks at least, will not be allowed to fail as it is not an option of the 'Elite' or more to the point, the people who control the banks and therefore the world.
The Rothschilds, through the Bilderberg Group.
The Rothschids have been responsible for financing wars as far back as the Napoleonic War.
The scumbag hedged his bets by lending a million pounds to King what's his face, and to Napoleon.
In doing so he blackmailed England and is still getting payments today.
He ruled over the city of London and Wall st. just to name two.
The original filth may be dead but his legacies live on in the form of the Bilderberg Group.
This Royal Commission into banking is just another red herring.
Nothing of any substance will change.
Unless we get behind Katter and help him push through the Glass-steagall bill, we will be no better off.
This bill returns the banks to what they were before.
The banks were a service to the community offering home and small business loans.
Instead the Glass-Steagall act of 1933 which was meant to separate commercial banking from investment banking, and is why we end up with GFC's and where the money goes, was repealed by that idiot Bill Clinton, effectively giving the keys to safe so that banks can use depositors money as leverage against bad investments.
So when the 'Too Big To Fail Banks' are on the brink of failing, they just reach into consumers bank accounts and take however much money they need to put the bank back in the 'black'.
This is called 'Bail-In'.
Look it up, it gets worse.
So we MUST get Glass-Steagall back or we will keep feeding these scumbags making them richer and the people poorer.

ALTRAV bet you cop a lot because of those views, see I share them.
IF only we could get people to look behind international banking.
If they just cared enough to find out who owns Americas reserve bank.
Even how much cash banks can lend, while not owning the money they lend.
Profits are made in every crash, some crashes are hard GFC, some not so, we know as you said in a post here investors will be hurt.
But out there right now, sitting in front of the big screen TV new car in the garage, house loan they already struggle to pay, are folk who ARE going to suffer.
You seem to know who will profit from their suffering, it will not be this country or us, pain is coming.

Bitcoin or similar Block-Chain could be the answer to the banks, LIBR, S&P, etc, etc. At least the "Reserve Bank of Australia" is somewhat government controlled. There are still issues with Bitcoin/ Block-Chain and tax and forex.

CM I cannot shrug this feeling of disdain and disapproval towards these 'pop-up' electronic currencies.
With very little research and assessment of them, I find they are little more than electronic PONZI's.
Yes, electronic money, pyramid schemes.
For an over simplified explanation, I find that the success of these 'schemes' rely on the continual injection of money by the beginner, for the existing members to benefit at exorbitant amounts.
I find myself preaching caution and constraint to friend and foe alike, in warning them of the ole' saying, 'if it's too good to be true, it usually is not true'.
I observed the pattern to be similar to a PONZI or even a mix of ponzi and pyramid schemes.
I'm not well versed enough in financial lingo to be able to explain it.
Still, it might just be me, I am not a gambler and so avoid such activities like the plague, even though I am shown convincing evidence to their bona-fides and better than market returns.
Maybe just my gut feeling then.

Belly, I would desperately like to know where and how the scumbags steal money from the treasury, through major govt programs.
I have figured out several ways and methods, but they all require the use of companies, dummy or otherwise.
They are usually in the form of studies and grants and through management and research companies.
One of the latest thefts is the govt has approved the payment to a couple of people to research into fixing the reef, to the tune of $440 Million.
Jesus I'll BUILD you a fu(#en reef for half that much.
I clearly charge someone with somehow skimming most of that money off into their personal companies to the benefit of either one or several Ministers.
There's supposed to be an enquiry into it.
Rubbish!
Those heading the enquiry are in on it too.
As Iv'e always said, anyone with political ambitions has seen the money and will SAY and DO ANYTHING to get elected.
So unless we can find honest people on the inside or whistle blowers who must remain anonymous and not 'blow their cover', we will never stop this grand theft of our money to the scumbag criminals, calling themselves politicians.

Ponzi scheme- I can understand your scepticism.

http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

I'll try to keep this simple. Bitcoin is based on the Block-Chain which is the same transaction ledger/ journal that every bank has going back to the founding of the bank. In order to give or take Bitcoin from someone the transaction needs to be verified using secure PKI identification- so the journal entry would contain (I guess) <id code of giver><id code of receiver><amount>. Think millions of lines of journal entries in the journal.

All the servers have the same journal database so its easy to detect when one server tries to steal bitcoins.

Running the system requires infrastructure which costs money and effort so some means of financial motivation needs to be added to the system.

Currently the processing reward is 12 bitcoins per block- which I believe contains multiple transactions. There is a limit of 21M bitcoins maximum so the reward decreases over time.

In the medium term there is provision to charge the transactor for the transaction- given the competitive nature of the system it limits the profit of individual transactions- to make profit servers need to rely on the mass of transactions they can process

Effectively when transacting in Bitcoin it's a foreign exchange of currency. But Block-Chain technology as I understand can also be used for bank like structures for example for Australian currency. The good thing about Bitcoin/ Block-Chain is competition is built into the system and it doesn't need the infrastructure that banks have- therefore in theory you get the benefit of your money.

This technology is still evolving but it's got a lot of potential.

There are also the Wallet Servers- but that's another conversation.

However I'm not necessarily convinced that investing in Bitcoin itself is necessarily wise.

At any rate the banks are very worried about this technology.

Hope this helps.

CM, anything that makes the banks worry is good for the people as far as I am concerned.
What is also of concern is that anything that involves making money with little or no effort, falls directly within the purview of the banks.
As such, I believe they were onto it as soon as it became public.
As if they are not stealing enough money already, we've just handed them another means of stealing, with no recourse or risks.
I admit I did not understand a word you wrote in your attempt to elaborate on this subject.
I do however feel that you are well informed on this matter.
It is enough that one of us, out there, knows what the hell is going on, so at least we have a chance at learning the truth about things, and not random opinions, which is mostly what I can conjure up with my limited intellect and my overactive imagination.
I truly wish we had a whistle blower or the like on the inside, we would finally start to bring these pricks down.
I believe, bring enough of them down, especially if they end up in jail, the aspiring pollies will turn away from the job knowing they won't have it all their way anymore.

To Altrav-

It's probably my fault that my explanation wasn't as good as I'd hoped. I'm sure that you would have seen a bank book before- in simple terms- it's as complicated as a pile of bank books.

Buffett says, “Never invest in a business you cannot understand.” .

I'm probably with you on the mistrust of the finance/ banking sector.

I remember the controversies with banking and finance over the years- the ratings agencies and the WFC, London Inter Bank Rate, Enron, Pyramid Building Society in Australia.

Apparently the guy that invented Bitcoin could be an Aussie- Craig Wright- From Charles Sturt University.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Steven_Wright

Well bitcoin in my view will suffer even completely burst when the rest of the world faces the coming down turn or is it full on recession?
Who makes money out of others loss?
We know that but some will call us insane if we say it here.
From little things big things grow, both good, bad and dreadful,do the maths, twice our annual income in debt.
House prices falling, trapping those already paying for one or more how can they sell without loss?
Then as surely we all know, interest rates rise, and they pay more?
Now confront the [in my view] shear stupidity of those paying interest only loans, who must soon confront higher interest and start paying the full rates
Much pain ahead for some