Craig,

Unfortunately you've effectively shot yourself in the mouth with your deliberately false claim. There's no point your continuing on this thread.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Shadow,

The need for dedicated baseload generators is a myth, as there is no reason why any of our power supply has to come from constant output sources. As long as we have the infrastructure to supply the peak load, we'll automatically be able to supply the base load. And when the interconnector was down for maintenance, the peakload generators charged more not because they're so much more expensive to run, but because lack of competition allowed them to get away with it.

The question of nuclear v renewables is primarily an economic one, and there's no definitive answer. Due to Australia's latitude and low population density, we're much better suited to renewables than Germany is. But if we do opt for nuclear, the LaTrobe Valley is a good place to put it.

At the moment the existing gas generators can be used when there's no wind or solar. If we do go to 100% renewables, we'll probably need something else (though not necessarily, as it is technically possible to synthesise gas). But right now that's moot, as most of Australia could easily double its renewables output without running into that problem.

ttbn,

If you have proof that it's fact, why don't you post a link to verify it? Then we'll be able to judge its accuracy. I've a strong suspicion you're basing your opinion on the old plan to mothball one of the Torrens Island power stations, even though that plan was abandoned when the Port Augusta power stations closed.

I assure you my demand for explanation was not vexatious (the only thing vexatious appears to be your calling Weatherill an outhouse rat). The post I was responding to contained some apparent non sequiters, so I ask again: What does your (almost certainly fictional) allegation of expecting to get "near the maximum of one Vic power station" have to do with anything?

I apologise for the typo and autocorrect error that turned "dropped" into "droopy".

Who is it you are trying to convince?

This has got nothing to do with my personal bias, and claiming it does only highlights your personal bias. We know that damage to the lines occurred before the outage, and when I posted what I did, it looked more likely that the line damage was the cause of the supply drop. Since then there's been a report that there was a software problem with the wind farms, so it looks like they may be to blame after all, though due to an easily fixable control problem rather than any intrinsic factor.

Aidan,

It is theoretically possible to build a renewable energy system backed up with a huge number of peak load generators in the same way as it is theoretically possible to maintain a colony on the moon, but just as stupidly expensive and risky.

Just for a moment consider that the model of an island country where demand is a constant 10 terawatts and supplied only with wind, solar and standby gas generation.

1) Given that solar energy is not available after dark, for 3/4 of the day the only sources of power would be wind and gas.
2) Given the average output of wind power of 30%, one would then need to build in the region of 33 terawatts of wind generation to provide an average of 10 terawatts of generation. This would however, still require back up at some level for 50% of the time.
3) For low wind days, it would also require the construction of roughly 9 terawatts (there will always be some wind, but stationary turbines consume net power) of gas back up generation 1/3rd of which would only operate for less than 100hrs a year.
4) When the solar and wind generation is above demand, the generators need to feathered as there is no where to store the energy.
5) The life span of wind power is about 20yrs, so a continual re construction of about 1.6 terawatts or 1000 wind turbines a year is required.
6) Even under this model the gas generation provides at least 10 percent of total generation.

The maintenance and ongoing capital costs provide electricity at roughly 10 times the cost presently paid, and about 5 times the cost of nuclear generation.

Of course the costs per MWhr drop dramatically if the % renewable drops say to 80% or if peak generation such biofuels or hydro are available, or practises such as load shifting are employed, but experience so far is that 30% is the limit one can rely on renewables before one either has export surplus power or feather the wind generators.

Feel free to debate the model

Interesting SM,
Taking into account the need for 1000 new generators every year I just
wonder what the ERoEI of the system would be ?
Very poor I suspect.
Interestingly I had the feeling that the cost would follow an
exponential like graph as the system approached 100% at which the
cost would be an infinite number of dollars.

As an aside some propose batteries but it has been suggested that
if all the world's car batteries and mobile phone batteries plus
all the world's other batteries were connected up they would supply
the world's electricity for 9 seconds !
Hhmmm

Not at all, Aidan. I made the claim deliberately with a specific intent and made the fact known when it was challenged.

I'm sorry if you don't like that, just as I'm sorry that Bazz was offended, but I think the point was serious enough to warrant it. People who are blathering on about things they don't know anything about other than what a brief reading of wikipedia filtered through their politically-tinted glasses tells them are those who you should be chastising.

This has been a worthwhile discussion, but now is the time to stop the blame game and think of the one thing that has arisen: that is, irrespective of your thoughts on RET's, they are asynchronous in times of emergency, and their introduction, if necessary at all, needs to be revised, urgently. The willy nilly drive of politically-driven state governments must stop, and the whole thing handed over to a national body. One of the few good ideas to come from Malcolm Turnbull.