2 cents worth from a self educated on Middle East politics,

Its all a show to pressure Iran to negotiate. The US could have bombed Iran if Israel succeeded to eadicate Hezbollah. Right now Israel is a hostage as it have no strategic depth and the US army is another hostage in Iraq.

Eventually a deal of some sort will be brokered.
The issue with the deal is its not likely to be accepted by Arab monarchies since Shiaa conflicts is about governance.
Agree with Steven that a nuclear Sunni/ Shiaa arms race is possible but the likely uglier scenario is for Iraq to become a proxy war for that conflict where Arab monarchies will use it to hold the Shiite crecent progress.
I was in the middle east recently and reading the news and headlines, seems Iranians are up to an uglier game by thrying to seed their ideologies into young sunnis.

Sorry no links, as I said its my own thoughts,

Fellow_Human

If the US decides it needs to strike Iran I doubt the possible effect on Israel would deter them. They will first and foremost consider their own interests. Among their most important goals must be avoiding a nuclear arms race between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

I'm sceptical of Iran's ability to inflict damage on Israel anyway. Despite Hizbullah's claims of victory in the last war I doubt they have the stomach for a re-match. They must know that the Israelis have abandoned the doctrine of winning from the air and that another war would bring about a full scale ground invasion. It is no secret that the IDF has been training for ground operations in Lebanon and is itching for another go.

Lebanon itself is in a parlous state and could implode at any time.

Iran's other friends, Hamas, have won control in Gaza.

But what now?

They may learn the truth of an old adage:

Those whom the gods would destroy, they first grant their wishes

Then there's Iran's friend, Syria. Syria has been flexing its muscles of late. But, again, I'm sceptical. Syria's President Assad must know his Alawite regime is unlikely to survive a ho-holds-barred war with Israel. The destruction you saw in Lebanon is a mere trifle compared to what would result if the IDF were let lose on Syria.

There may be many reasons which stay America's hand against Iran. But the damage Iran could do to Israel is not one of them. Israel is probably not the hostage you seem to imagine despite what the pundits say.

The fact Bush is a lame duck leader is some assurance we may not yet see a US war on Iran.
However one day we will see a clash in this part of the world that concerns us all.
That time could be years or hours away.

Steven,

There are two issues you seem to have mixed:
-Iran is becoming a stronger influencer and player in the region.
Most of new powers was a direct result of American mistakes in Iraq rather than actions by the Iranians. The key errors were: a) dismantling the Iraqi army (only army in the gulf capable of holding the Iranians across and b) dismantling the only powerful secular regime (baath). Those two errors guaranteed that Iraq fell to the Iranians on a silver platter. The arms race in this region is likely inevitable because the Iranians wants to export their revolution and force their way of life. We will see.

- Israel and its security is a different story and requires a different strategy. Regardless of its military capabilites, its clash with Hezbollah was a 2 way surprise and proved that one of key security threats is it have no strategic depth (land). Israel can only mitigate that by peacefully ensuring strong surrounding allies and those are : Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. Israel's guarantee to security is to wrok closely and in collaboration with all its neighbours.
My guess is there will be lots of negotiations (US-Iran) and (Israel Syria). I can't see any positive outcomes to war scenarios in this region. Iraq is a deja vu.
Its all views anyway, only time can tell.

Peace,

Fellow_Human,

You won't find me defending the Bush administration. Bush is the worst president I can remember and my memory for presidents goes back 50 years. I suspect he may go down in history as the worst of the post-World War 2 presidents and probably one of the worst presidents ever.

When Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq I though he had lost his marbles. Latterly I've begun wondering whether he had any marbles to lose in the first place.

The thrust of my post was to point out that possible consequences to Israel would not stay America's hand if the Americans thought they needed to hit Iran. The US, like every other power, will always put its own interests first.

All candidates running for president that have even a remote chance of actually winning have been careful to reserve the rights when it comes to military action against Iran. Under certain circumstances there could be bipartisan support for destroying Iran's nuclear facilities.

Israel is not as helpless as you seem to imagine. I am also not as sure as you seem to be that Hizbullah would want to risk another confrontation with Israel.

Jaw jaw is always better than war war as Churchill said so I'm sure there are many behind the scenes talks going on. But in the Middle-East it is usually the pessimists who are right and this pessimist does not think there will be peace anytime soon. Not in Iraq. Not in Iran which is fighting low-level civil wars in various provinces. And not between Israel and the two Palestinian entities which one pundit labeled "Hamastan" and "Fatahstine."

I also wonder what Hamas will actually do now that it has control of Gaza.

My own guess is that Abbas may be secretly relieved that Hamas has in effect broken away and taken Gaza off his shoulders.

Steven,

Agree with your most of your last post specially re Hamas. For Gaza to be controled by Hamas is a step in the wrong direction.

You mis-interpreted my comment re "Israel helpless" on the contrary that is not view. The point I was trying to make is that the whole region can have an EU like future if they work together (ie Israel and its neigbouring countries). The Israeli and the Arabs need a change of attittude and should both say good bye to muscles or victim attitude but rather put their heads together as they share the same region, culture and resources. Sooner or later they will come to realise if they can't unite no one really cares about either of them.

Peace,