What will be in store for budget 2015/16.?
Can the coalition salvage public opinion.?
Will Abbott's leadership survive 2015.?

I think the LNP hs hit bottom and will start to climb. First step is that I think CN will win his seat and hold government, and this will flow on to Abbott.

I say this because labor, federal and QLD, have nothing to offer, apart from out of control borrowing, creating jobs that are not justifiable, and taxing easy targets.

Few will forget where that took us last time.

My tip is QLD labor. will implode in the next few weeks.

rehctub, how low would interest rates have to go before you'd think it was sensible for governments to borrow more money?

The Brisbane Times tells us that Labor faces an
uphill battle to win office on January 31st -
holding just nine seats and needing 45 to win
office in its own right - sounds like a David
and Goliath battle.

The newspaper states that the LNP loses ofice if
it drops 29 seats, reducing its 73 seats to 44,
not enough to win Queensland's 89 seat Parliament.
The 4 seats held by Independents, plus the 3 seats
held by Katter's Australia Party make election 2015
an interesting dynamic.

People are not happy with Campbell Newman and his
government - and it will be interesting to see whether
this translates into an election loss - and whether
this will be just the start for what's to come with
the dissatisfaction also being expressed against the
Abbott government.

We'll have to wait and see - the results will appear soon
enough.

Its obvious that Labor lost far to many seats at the last election to have any hope of winning later this month in Queensland but they will get close enough to make the next election a contest.
Im guessing that the LNP will win by around 10 seats and probably lose by 10 seats in three years time.

When you are at the bottom any raise would seem like a gigantic achievement. Can Toni do it, or can we expect more of the same. To think the coalition can forgo all of its misadventures and come out on top is a big ask.

The 2013-14 budget was to hot and to radical, they need to come down to earth and realise people live here. I would say to reset the coalition it will take a leadership change, plus a change of how Abbott and Credlin can run govt ; without party backing.

To run a govt; with 100% of your party’s vote, without their blessing on issues is a recipe for corruption against their own members, which is where the Abbott govt; is now.

579,

"Will Abbott's leadership survive 2015.?"

Not by my reckoning if he and Credlin tread the same path as they have up till now.

The PMO will have to learn to delegate to ministers in the true sense of the word, and not centralise all power to Ms Credlin.

Abbott, one presumes, will continue to do what Abbott does. By his own admission, and using a cricketing analogy, he can't bat, can't bowl, can't field - but he's a great sledger...which explains why he was so good as Opposition Leader and so hopeless in actual govt in the role of PM.

If the LNP leadership continues in the same vein, I predict both Abbott and Credlin will be removed sometime this year...probably about the time a one term tenure takes on the lustre of distinct possibility.

What will seal Tony Abbotts fate are the falling jobs and revenue in the mining industry in WA and Queensland.
Also after Mr Newman privatises everything and prices go through the roof Queenslanders will take it out on Mr Abbott at the federal election.

Aiden, borrowing money is not the issue, it's one, spending it wisely, and two, being able to pay it back. Neither are options at the moment and, when interest rates are already at record lows, I doubt a percent or two will fix that problem at the moment. What we need is serious, fair for all, tax reform, so our public income increases. Not only that, but if we illuminate income tax then there is very little need for government assistance, something that is crippling us at the moment.

As for a change of government, I really think people need something to go back to, and given the past ten or so years of labor here in QLD, I doubt there's much there for them to go back to. That's why I say there may be a high vote for 'nome of the above' this time round.

Tony Abbot has not had the privilege of entering government with an economy that's in great shape, come to think of it, I don't remember a lib government that has, unlike labor"s last stint.

Sorry, they (labor) wasted too much, achieved too little and could not stop the boats, the ones that they created under Kevin 07's watch.

Whether people hate Abbott or not, few will forget labors mess. Same goes for Anna Bligh and her predecessor, as they squandered opportunity after opportunity here in QLD and left the incoming Newman government with huge debts, a massive top heavy public system and no money. Its almost as if they set CN up because blind freddie knew someone had the teim the fat from the public service and he was the fall guy. They also won't forget Anna Blighs 'take my ball and run' attitude either.

Sorry, some of that was for another post, but it's still relevant.

rehctub
<borrowing money is not the issue, it's one, spending it wisely, and two, being able to pay it back.>>
I'm glad you realise this, but it makes me wonder why you support the Libs/LNP. I can't think of a single instance of a Liberal government not resorting to false economies to pay down the debt, and the Newman government's proposed asset sale looks to be just another example of that.

Bob Katter has remarked that governments used to be willing to take on debt to fund the infrastructure to enable economic growth, but now the Liberals (and to some extent, also Labor) are afraid to despite the amount of debt being smaller compared to the size of the economy. Unfortunately a "debt is bad, Labor's left us a mess" narrative seems to be much easier to sell to people like you than the truth.

How do you propose income tax be illuminated?

Aiden, "I can't think of a single instance of a Liberal government not resorting to false economies to pay down the debt, and the Newman government's proposed asset sale looks to be just another example of that"

Goodness gracious, how easily some forget who got Qld into the financial mess and proposed asset sales to pay it off), more likely to spend instead). This one,

"Anna Maria Bligh (born 14 July 1960) is an Australian politician and the 37th Premier of Queensland from 2007 to 2012. Bligh was an Australian Labor Party member of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland seat of South Brisbane from 1995 to 2012.

Bligh was the first woman to be appointed Premier of Queensland, the third female Premier of an Australian state, and the sixth female head of government of an Australian state or territory. She led Labor to victory in the 2009 Queensland state election, becoming the first woman elected in her own right as a state premier in Australia."

[Wikipedia]

Now Anna Bligh is the CEO of the YWCA (NSW). Any reports on it yet?

Yep, anyone with even half a brain, who considered the last 2 Labor Commonwealth governments, & the last 2 Queensland Labor governments could not even consider voting them in again this centaury.

It will be very interesting to watch these next elections. It will tell us how many Ozzies actually think about the capability of the parties, when they vote.

Like we see of so many on here, I expect ideology will cap any application of sound thought yet again, come voting time.

I wonder who the new LNP Queensland premier will be?

onthebeach, not being a Banana Bender myself, I don't know enough about how the Bligh government ran up the debt to give a meaningful comment. That's why I responded here not in the Queensland Election thread.

But even if the criticism of Anna Bligh is completely accurate, that doesn't change the fact that "I can't think of a single instance of a Liberal government not resorting to false economies to pay down the debt, and the Newman government's proposed asset sale looks to be just another example of that".

Although thinking about it a bit more, I expect there's at least one counterexample in WA.

...How do you propose income tax be illuminated?

A financial transaction tax Aiden, a tax on every single bank transaction, and given paper money is now forming the minority of transactions, it would be easier than ever to implement and even cash transaction would eventually end up in the bank at some point.

You see income tax is a tax on ones efforts, whereas a TT is a tax on spending and, as each dollar circulates, it collects taxes along the way. Although we may have a multi trillion dollar economy, doesn't mean we have trillions of dollars, it means the same dollars just get shifted around, hundreds, if not thousands of times each day.

The GST is inefficient because while half the public pay the tax, the other half (ABN holders) get theirs back. Quite often it's the ones paying the tax that can least afford it. Whereas a TT of just 2% means for every $1000 spent, just $20 will be paid in tax and not a cent more.

You see if this tax were to be introduced, and people on average wages had an additional say $300 to spend, each and every week, the economy would have an ongoing stimulation. It's coming, maybe not in my time, but as technology advances, I'm sure this tax will come in and very very few will be able to avoid it.

Aidan,

I have never been comfortable with the sale of money making enterprises such as the Commonwealth Bank. So as you know where I am coming from.

When you are talking about sales and privatisation there is an ideology behind it that has been around for a long time and well before the present Queensland premier. Here is a view from the left that gives some potted history,

http://www.solidarity.net.au/unions/labors-love-affair-with-the-market-the-keating-years/

Aiden, that saying of Barnaby Joyce's;
Manage your debt or your debt manages you !

Seems very relevant today.
The government's reluctance to borrow and eagerness to repay loans is
looking to me like the government has realised what is happening to the
wold economy and is trying to clear the decks for the next financial collapse.
There are strong indications that there will be a marked reduction in
oil production by the end of this year and a climb in price.
The whole oil industry in the US is on a razor's edge financially.
The banks hold large derivative risk on the tight shale industry.

Aside from all that the government appears to be worried about the
future and with good cause.
Personally, I suggest you move some of your funds into credit unions
as I think they will not be touched by the Financial Stability Board.
I have written to my MHR to try and get clarification on that.
Three weeks later no reply.

Yes Bazz, and I think this one will really hurt, because there's no fat anymore.

While the US market has been on fire, this growth has been during a time when the fed have been stimulating their economy. Look out when they decide enough is enough

I'm afraid Rehctub, I just can't see how your idea of reducing tax so dramatically could work.

If the commonwealth had something like 150 billion less in the budget, what would you suggest they drop.

Currently the PAYE tax take only just manages to pay the welfare bill. Yes granted about 30% of that is probably illegitimate, but they still pay it.

A transaction tax would certainly encourage the cash economy.
A lot more uncomfortable mattresses I think.

Us unemployment is 5.6 % manufacturing is back.
Your TT tax is just a name change from GST with lower income. Goods and services are taxed if you go through a bank or not. You could up GST by eliminating income tax, you can't have one without the other. I think when the GST was created, we were led to believe that GST was going to replace income tax. Seeing that they got away with it no more was said.

A rise in GST would have to come with compensation for pensioners.

Its not that hard to balance the budget without new taxes. Get rid of the private health insurance rebate, the diesel rebate, negative gearing, subsidies to the mining industry and im sure there are plenty of other rorts that can be wiped out overnight.

So Crowie, what you're essentially saying is to get rid of the drivers of our economy.

The diesel subsidy. If you drive our trucks off the road, how do you think we will move our goods, not to mention growing them as farmers are high users of diesel as well.

Negative gearing. I'm still waiting for ANYONE to tell me where the renter will live.

579, the GST, while at 10%, is only ever paid by the end user, as all others get theirs back. A TT taxes monetary transactions and nobody is exempt, except for the odd cash deal, but seriously they are not as common as they were ten years ago.

If you collect $20 from every $1000 spent, and that same $1000 is spent many thousand times a day, the tax would be huge.

It is a long time back but I do not remember anyone saying the GST
would replace income tax.

I think there would have been a lot of talk about that.

The GST was never intended (or claimed) to replace income tax, but ISTR it was claimed it would replace all state taxes. The government had the slogan "Goodbye State Taxes". They also claimed it was "Goodbye Seven Taxes" until the opposition pointed out that one of those seven taxes had been abolished years before.

From Monday, the rebate for appointments lasting less than 10 minutes will be cut from $37.05 to $16.95.

The Australian Medical Association (AMA) said in many cases doctors would have to pass the cost onto patients.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said Labor would move to disallow the $20 cut when Parliament resumed next month, adding the change would be damaging for patients.

"Our position is unequivocal, it's in black and white," he said.

"We will oppose Tony Abbott absolutely changing the rebate system for our GPs, making it a lot harder and through this sneaky back-door method.

Towards a two-tiered health system

The Federal Government's stated concern about "6 minute medicine" is a sham. The real agenda is to reduce Medicare, which is why we should be glad that the Senate has indicated its opposition, writes Tim Woodruff.
"We will say to Tony Abbott 'you are not going to damage the Medicare system if we've got anything to do with it'."

With Labor joining the Greens to support a disallowance motion, only another four votes are needed from the crossbench.

Premier Campbell Newman denies his time as Liberal National Party (LNP) leader has been marked by internal conflict.

Five MPs, including assistant health minister Chris Davis, quit the LNP during the Newman government's first term.

But speaking to 612 ABC Brisbane, Mr Newman insisted one of his achievements was keeping his team together.

"A leader has to have clear direction and vision," he said.

"A leader has to look after the group needs, keep the group together, and that's what I've done as state leader.

"It has been a very strong team and it has been a strong team compared to other political teams that have a go at one another and aren't united."

Mr Newman also said he had no succession plan in place in case he lost his seat of Ashgrove in the January 31 poll.

Is Abbott for real or is he trying to cause chaos. With his sly cuts to doctors, and saying if these cuts don’t go ahead it will cost the budget 1.5 billion. He could dream up anything and claim it will cost the budget.
I think he has a mentality problem, and the sooner the rest of his govt; come to that conclusion the better. It doesn’t sound very positive for his more compassionate 2015.

Abbott would be better off getting the masses off of their tobacco, booze and junk food addictions if he wants to save the health care system billions of dollars.
I see that he has now backed out of slugging the sick an extra $20 but it looks like he's still on a mission of trying to be the most unpopular PM in Australia's history.

The Government's backdown over the Medicare rebate is evidence of decision-making that is as chaotic as it is confusing, and does not augur well for a Prime Minister who continues to govern with out direction or consequence.
How long can this go on, surely Abbott's chances have expired.

579, you say Campbell Newman has lost five from his cabinet. What your not considering is that he had almost 80 to start with, an unprecedented situation in QLD"'s political history. While five from say the usual 50 would be considered a large number to loose, five from eighty is not as alarming.

Now as for the Medicare back down, we can still retain free medical, all we need to do is work out where we are going to take the funding from, because the funds are simply not there.

So for someone who as recent as two years ago you was sitting there saying, nothing to worry about, it's all under control, you seem to be worried all of a sudden. Have you just worked out that you can't borrow hundreds of billions, then waste it without suffering some pain.

I'd love to see a coalition government come in to office with a surplus and zero debt. Unfortunately even with out now extended life expectancies, I still won't live long enough.

Butch you are an Abbott devotee. 5 is a loss of 5 in a very short time how many do you think will be left after the election. IF there had of been 10 bi elections there would have been 10 less. It will be an incredible achievement if Newman can hold his own seat.

As for medicare funding that is in Abbott's court, if he is good enough.

Two years ago Butch we had unemployment figures that were sustainable.
Two years ago we were in far better shape than we are now.
All Abbott has achieved is increasing the deficit by cutting programs that were money earners. Remember the flush of business confidence you predicted when the carbon tax was abolished

Two years ago we did not have to put up with Abbott's B/S
You have to be made of steel to stick up for a person that has told so many lies, and caused so many back-flips that it has created history

This PM is a no-hope pm. He is operating as a one man coalition party.

Govt leadership under Abbott and Credlin (see PMO) is a joke - and now we're hearing a few right-wing journos echoing that sentiment.

Not to mention backbenchers are now getting in on the act.

The only hope for this govt is to dump their leadership team, regroup and start again.

(Not that I can see them redeeming themselves in any hurry)