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The Forum > General Discussion > Aust asks for Gold Audit from London.

Aust asks for Gold Audit from London.

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I am not the gambler Aidan – you are. Look at the evidence. One oz of Gold has bought either a lovely set of garments or a first class means of transport since about 2000 B.C and still does in 2000 A.D. Hardly changed. Most fiat currencies have totally vanished over that period and the ones that remain can only buy about 90% of the goods they could buy only 100 years ago. It is no contest except for short term gamblers, presumably your goodself included ! You are relying on a theory created by Nixon, among other even more insalubrious efforts, that the Federal Reserve could keep the value of the US$ stable without any independent control that had been provided under Bretton Woods. Nixon of course proved a very reliable guide

“ the major overvaluations which would've caused hyperinflation during the Bretton Woods era simply don't occur any more” What major hyperinflations ? Bretton Woods seems to have provided safety checks even if barely adequately. We are now about 45 years into a major experiment in how to run the world economy without gold as an overall independent controlling factor. We haven’t begun to learn how to do it, if it proves even possible at all, in the long term. There is a rumour that a new overall “currency” is going to be created, supervised by the IMF or perhaps the World Bank – not for use by the sheeples but it will be an attempt to solve the current problems. We await information and hope they can get it right.

“Unlimited” currency printing does appear to mean “unrestricted” if you search for some parameters restricting it in the Fed Reserve releases. Hopefully you are right !
Posted by Dickybird, Saturday, 3 January 2015 9:08:21 AM
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“Inflation and hyperinflation are two very different things. Can you think of a single example where the former has caused the latter? (I can't)”. Except that Hyper is always without fail preceded by ordinary inflation. This will increase if no one deals with it. The early stage inflation can be dealt with by cutting, not increasing, both taxes and govt expenditure and letting small entrepreneurs get on with creating real wealth. The Regan years. Late stage hyper inflation necessitates changing your currency altogether or devaluing it by 1000 times (France in the 1950’s). No one knows how to deal with (value) a world currency that has “inflated” its size by at least 5 times in the last few years, but so far not dealt with its value. I am lost. I wish you would tell me what is going to happen in the next few years when some of the chickens come home to roost !

Can I strongly recommend http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html for a detailed history of that nightmare and reasons why the initial stages are being faithfully copied in the present.
Posted by Dickybird, Saturday, 3 January 2015 9:20:53 AM
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Arjay,
<<Aidan fiat currencies will only work if our Govts have control of their creation and we have a constitution that limits our Govts from creating too much of it.>>
Governments DO have control of their creation, and we don't need limits to money creation to be enshrined in the constitution. Having it set at th epolicy level is just as effective, though the current policy settings are actually too hawkish: there's too much of a focus on controlling short term inflation rather than encouraging economic growth and controlling long term inflation.

<<If private interests have the power of money creation then they own us and our Govts. That is the reality. Some say the Rothschilds are worth $100 trillion since they own a Central Bank in just about every country on the planet. What we have is slavery.>>
Why not make it a quadrillion since they own alien spaceships?

In reality they don't own any central banks, apart from part technical ownership of the US Federal Reserve (with neither control nor a share of the profits).
Posted by Aidan, Saturday, 3 January 2015 10:26:01 AM
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Lets not tell to many facts Aiden, it will ruine some good conspiracy's for now and the future. When truths are laid out they are glossed over and not recognised.
The conspiracists are story tellers, and would be film directors.
Posted by 579, Saturday, 3 January 2015 11:57:10 AM
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Dickybird,

Prices can go down as well as up, so investing in precious metals is a gamble. The long term odds do appear to be good, but not as good as shares.

Nixon didn't create the theory, he was merely forced by events to implement it. And it's probably the best thing he ever did, as it avoided the economic catastrophe that would've occurred had the USA run out of gold.

I didn't say there were major hyperinflations in the Bretton Woods era; the major overvaluations were dealt with before they reached that stage, so I accept your claim that "Bretton Woods seems to have provided safety checks even if barely adequately". But I disagree wholeheartedly with your claim that "We haven’t begun to learn how to [run the world economy without gold as an overall independent controlling factor], if it proves even possible at all, in the long term." We know exactly how to do it: use a combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy to control the amount of currency available. There's almost universal consensus about that, though some disagreement remains (and probably always will remain) about how to prioritise competing demands.

We certainly don't need a new currency, and the need for the World Bank and IMF has diminished.
Posted by Aidan, Saturday, 3 January 2015 5:44:30 PM
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<< Except that Hyper is always without fail preceded by ordinary inflation.>>
But never caused by it.

<<This will increase if no one deals with it.>>
As I said, a combination of fiscal policy (taxation and government spending) and monetary policy can deal with it.

<<The early stage inflation can be dealt with by cutting, not increasing, both taxes and govt expenditure and letting small entrepreneurs get on with creating real wealth. The Regan years>>
The objective is to increase government revenue to avoid having to rely on borrowing or printing money. Raising taxes is nearly always a more effective way of doing this than cutting taxes. And even in Reagan's America, the total tax burden rose even while direct taxes increased.

<<Late stage hyper inflation necessitates changing your currency altogether or devaluing it by 1000 times (France in the 1950’s).>>
1950s?

<<No one knows how to deal with (value) a world currency that has “inflated” its size by at least 5 times in the last few years, but so far not dealt with its value,>>
If it's really overvalued, the obvious thing to do is sell it. But be sure it really is overvalued. Factors like balance of trade tend to be the most important long term indicator.

<<I am lost. I wish you would tell me what is going to happen in the next few years when some of the chickens come home to roost !>>
The ¥ will rise again when Japan resumes using nuclear energy.
If a rise in government deficit results in a currency falling, buy (because the situation will not last)
And though gold's not the best investment, it's unlikely to be the worst either!
Posted by Aidan, Saturday, 3 January 2015 5:44:53 PM
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