The Forum > General Discussion > peak oil
peak oil
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The first thing to understand in this discussion is;
OIL WILL NEVER RUN OUT !
However a country that imports 95% of its oil and diesel is very vulnerable.
Conventional oil fields peaked in 2005.
This caused a rush to unconventional oil such as tight shale rock oil.
This what has happened in the US, and it gave the world a five year to
ten year breathing space to tackle the problem of expensive oil.
Unfortunately we did not take the hint.
The production decline rate of tight oil is 40% to 60% the first year
and 95% in the 5th year.
The cost of tight oil is rising and drilling finance is starting to
get very twitchy about the lack of profitability.
The ERoEI of tight oil is around 5 as compared to conventional oil
of ERoEI of 50 or 100 to 1 ratio.
The major oil companies need to spend $2 Trillion over the next
couple of years in an attempt to just replace production falls in
conventional fields. Their yield on this search and development
expenditure has fallen so that much higher oil prices are inevitable.
There is much hype about the US becoming self sufficient in oil but
this is impossible. The US imports 40% of the oil they use and the
tight oil is about just 3 million barrels a day of the 18MBD that they
use.
While what happens in the US directly affects us our problem is the
risk to our supply. If the ISIL gets control or damages the loading
terminals in Iraq, that could cut off the world's second largest exporter.
Almost all our petrol and diesel comes from Singapore’s refinery.
It does not take much imagination to see scenarios that could cause
a cessation in supply to Australia.