A lesson for would be politicians

There are 4 types of promises a politician can make.

1. A promise where they do whatever they can to keep.
2. A half-hearted promise which they would like to keep otherwise known as a non core promise.
3. A promise they have no intention of keeping
4. A promise where they intend or do the direct opposite.

A politician will gain respect for a type 1 promise even if it is an unpopular measure.

A politician can normally expect to get away with a type 2 promise.

A politician may or may not get away with a type 3 promise depending on how obvious their motives appear.

I think it highly unlikely any Australia politician will ever get away with a type 4 promise. Apparently it has not occurred to the Abbott government that this could be a problem, recent history of Labour’s problem with the carbon tax should have been adequate warning to the Liberals.

As a result I can not see how the Abbott government can win the next election. This may well become obvious to the Liberals, who will then have an interesting choice dump Abbott and Hockey or lose the next election. I can’t see either option being very attractive to the liberals. Those people who don’t learn from history are destined to repeat the same mistakes.

Well… it would appear that the Libs need to install Turnbull in the top job ASAP, if they are going to have any chance of recouping enough ground to win the next election.

Compare: Every parent is unpopular [worst parents in the world] when the children's allowances are cut because dad's income cannot keep up with the bills.

Josephus, a GST of 10% on Religious Institutions is in order, don't you agree? Churches pay NO tax, it is a disgrace that these parasitic organisations are allowed to exist, tax free, in our society. Tax Em' Tony is falling done on the job.

Paul
We have been over this before.
Churches do not make profits.
Every staff member pays income tax.
They are a members organisation not a business.
So identify what you want to tax?

Turnbull!

Come on Luddy. Then you would have another party led by some one as stupid as Labor leaders these last 10 years, present company included, & as dishonest & plain crazy as the greens

Be careful what you wish for old mate. With such a scenario, we just might see Palmer in the lodge, as a "yes Prime minister" type result.

The mere thought makes me shudder.

The only way out for abbott is vier the side door. Turnbull is an obvious choice, being knifed by abbott would seem not a good idea.
The coalition are in ruins and unrecoverable under the present system.
If Turnbull was the pick, it would mean an election of course.
But probably with rabbit and joe and pyne and bishop gone. Turnbull could possibly win an election.
What ever way they go there is going to be a lot of blood spilt.

Hasbeen
I think you and the liberals will be doing a lot of shuddering.
Personally I think the Abbott government has lost the plot. I can not see how the Abbott government can go to the next election and expect anyone to believe anything they say, which will make it well nigh impossible for them to win the next election whenever it is held.

The best hope I can see for the liberals to win the next election is to replace Abbott and Hockey as soon as possible. Turnbull is the logical choice but whether the party is willing to entertain the idea of changing leaders so soon after a successful election is another question.

The situation is similar in some respects to the problem the Labour party faced before the last election, when they dumped Julia simply because under Rudd they knew they would lose by a smaller margin. In the present case Turnbull may turn out to the Liberals only hope of winning.

The only other possible scenario I can see is all the unpopular measures in the budget fail to get through the Senate and the Liberals claim it was only an ambit claim anyway, in which case they will have to start from scratch with a new budget. That way they might just get away with it, but it begs the question of why go through all that pain for no gain.

The only way that the liberal Party has any chance of facing an election without suffering catastrophic results; would be to get rid of Abbott,Hockey and Pyne ! They need fresh faces really big-time ! Although that will not win at the next Election, that may help towards easing their pain ! I have inferred such on the Liberal website ,where they are all in some sort of state of denial ! You can bury your head in the sand as much as you like,and Tony can box away with his eyes shut, that will not stop the pain that's coming their way !

It remains surprisingly unremarked, but it is worthy of noting The latest federal budget provides for the establishment of Australia’s second carbon tax. That is right. The Coalition government is proposing a carbon tax of its own in the form of an indexed excise tax on carbon-based fuels. It appears that instead of “axe the [carbon] tax”, the more apropos campaign slogan for the Coalition would have been “axe carbon emissions trading and tax carbon energy inputs directly”.
Maybe it’s because it was not an untruth, or was it to replace the original carbon tax, which only fault is it was implemented by labor.
What ever it was its another tax which we were not going to get.
The mining tax is best known as the resource super profits tax, or RSPT. It is designed to replace the confusing array of royalties that mining companies presently pay to the states. Any profit made by mining companies that is above 6% of their capital investment would be taxed at 40%, and all royalties presently paid to the states would be rebated.
The Federal Government says the mining tax is not raising any money. At the same time, it says scrapping the tax will benefit the budget by over $13 billion

The only reason scrapping the mining tax would improve the budget position by $13.8 billion is because the Government included the abolition of eight spending measures in its legislation.
Seven of these measures had direct links to the mining tax in Labor's budgets, but the Schoolkids Bonus - which is the largest single saving at over $5 billion - did not.
Including this measure dramatically increases how much the legislation can improve the budget position.
Furthermore, Senator Cormann did not mention these "associated measures" in his claim. Scrapping the mining tax alone would leave the budget $3.4 billion worse off over the next four years

you would think that Paul1405 would shut up about tax breaks after the billions wasted on the Green religion. No shame!

Hopefully, Labor has a decisive win at the next election, ridding themselves of having to appease the Greens ! I do not even know why the national Party is still part of the Liberal Coalition, its been a long time since Australia has ridden on the sheep's back, and the country people of yesteryear are now longer so different ,and their needs are more in tune with city people than they were decades ago ! They would get more done for their own country constituents by being a single party in their own right without any allegiance to other party !

The current bunch of Labor clowns are as bad, or even worse than the abominable Rudd & Gillard.

We will know if the country is worth saving after the next election. If Ozzies care about their kids future, they could not vote Labor or Green.

If they do we'll know it is every man for himself, & have to join the rats deserting a sinking ship.

Hasbeen calling The Greens dishonest! Obviously not up to date with the dishonesty of the Liberal Party. Take a look at the goings on at the NSW ICAC then try and tell me The Greens are dishonest. Both Abbott and Hockey are members of the Liberals 'North Shore Mafia' so how dishonest can you get.

Josephus - Quote "Churches do not make profits." Do you honestly believe what you said?

The Catholic church used to be the biggest and richest business in the world, they make money so the workers popes bishops etc can live a very comfortable lifestyle.
They are in it to the grave so don't walk around with lots of money but anything they want is charged to and paid for by the church.

Ask the Catholic church or any other for a statement of moneys received and how much is spent on administration etc as opposed to how much is actually spent on charitable work. Bet you won't get it.

Philip S,
All church financial records are signed of by an Auditor so become one and see it they charge fees for service. A considerable percentage of gifts given by the members of the Church I attend support education, health and welfare in third world countries. The members have the say in how THEIR money is distributed. The money does not belong to an institution called the Church it belongs to people who are the members.

Josephus, "see if they charge fees for service"; try getting something done like a marriage, baptism or any other bit of "hocus-pocus" performed by "the Church" and see what it will cost you! These businesses demand 10% minimum (of the gross) income of devotees, why shouldn't they be taxed, just like any other business, 10% GST should apply for services, same with the collection on Sundays, services provided, then income tax on the old blokes cut. Do you say a mob like 'Hillsong' or 'Scientology' are anything more than money making businesses? Jesus is very salable and the mob worked that out long before Peter was even Pope!.
p/s I would also hit em' with land tax if I had my way. I'm not bias against Christianity, I would be just as tough on Islam and any other religion for that matter.

Hasbeen is really up to it. Clowns. With what we have in parliament and he comes up with clowns.
The clowning goes on every day, and the number one clown is hilarious.
We tried to get it into you that there was a clown running for PM, but you had to try for yourself.
All that is left is to heap mud on past history, and forget the future ever happened.

Bring back the clowns? Not likely!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0MHRSFz6FM

It's a payment. You can call it a tax," he said. "It comes out of a pocket. It comes out of someone's pocket. A taxpayer's pocket. You want to call it a tax, you can call it anything you want, you can call it a rabbit."
He also conceded that the rise in the petrol excise was a tax increase.
The Abbott government has plunged in the polls and is under fire for imposing those new taxes and cuts to family tax benefits, tougher welfare eligibility, lower pensions and deregulated university fees.

Mr Hockey said the Coalition had not attempted to sneak into government by keeping its plans secret before the September election. "No, I don't think you have to lie to get elected," he said.

Can you imagine the spin doctoring we will be fed in 2016 when Abbott and Hockey have to explain why debt and deficit are no better than they were in 2013? I just hope Labor are on their game when that happens. In the meantime there is another big problem that is quietly brewing away within the Coalition ranks. It’s the same problem Labor suffered to its great shame. It is the foul winds of disunity, infighting, undermining and front and backbench alignments. The vultures are stirring in Coalition-land, if not yet circling. There are deep internal divisions within the government outlined quite succinctly by Laura Tingle in the Australian Financial Review last week. Joe’s relationship with Tony Abbott is slowly going the way of…..you know….and pretty soon I suspect it will be out there for all to see.

Abbott is now trying to limit the RC into the RC by cutting funding by $7m I got to ask if Archie Peel has a finger in it? Promised to fully support this RC into Church sicko's, alas another broken promise!

Paul1405, "I'm not bias(sic) against Christianity, I would be just as tough on Islam and any other religion for that matter"

It is just that you and the Greens somehow never get around to criticisng Islam and they want 'open door' immigration to flood the country with them.

Lest we forget,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0MHRSFz6FM

Sounds like things are getting to close to home for Tony. Cold feet does happen. After all the B?S about a full and open process he now wants to short circuit it. There has to be something behind that.

Abbott says universities won't go broke by charging to much for fees.
They also won't go broke by picking and choosing students with the deepest pockets.
It's an act for the elite, and must not be allowed.
These badly thought out budget measures are designed for a particular class of person.
Like most of the budget, it is designed to alter the living standards of the not so well off.

Come on Beach whenever have I said one word on OLO in support of that wacko Islamic religion. I only support fair dinkum religions, when I find one I'll join. Yes I support an open door immigration policy, but only for Somalia, and only for the right sort of people, I'll let you know when the next boats leaving! LOL

Paul1405,
Your world view is to eliminate freedom of religion and charitable organisations and view all things through the eyes of money.

Josephus - Your view is clouded by rose colored glasses.
Which thousands of victims of catholic priests and so called clergy of other religions would disagree with.
As well of millions who have died, some horrible deaths in the name of religion in past history, even these days lots die due to religious causes.

A classmate of Ms Abbott said she and other students she had contacted since details of the $60,000 Chairman's Scholarship came to light were not aware of the existence of an academic award that covered the cost of the three-year undergraduate course. ''We had no knowledge of these scholarships whatsoever. If there was a scholarship opportunity available, we would have applied for it,'' the graduate said.
While studying at Whitehouse, the former student was not aware that Frances had been awarded the funds. ''We were under the impression that Frances was on FEE-HELP like the rest of us, or that her parents were helping because the fees there were so high,'' she said.
''This isn't about sour grapes,'' she said. ''It doesn't sit right with me that the Liberal Party in particular are making cuts to higher education and upping debt repayment while one person in particular gets a free education under the radar.''

Josephus, In my ideal world, religions, and charities for that matter would "wither and die on the vine". Religion would become superfluous due to the enlightenment of man through the removal of the need to hold onto ignorant superstitious beliefs. Charities, noble as many are, would simply become redundant in the egalitarian society of tomorrow.

Josephus, (in your view) could you please tell me what are the beneficial and therefore positive aspects of organised religions?

I'm sure the "Holy Father" in Rome is a nice old guy, but just as I think the Queen of England is most likely a nice old duck, it don't make me a monarchists or a religious devotee.

To answer your question; Your world view is to eliminate freedom of religion and charitable organisations and view all things through the eyes of money? Can't see the correlation between those three things. So my answer is no. To add, I certainly do not view all things through the eyes of money.

The Special Commission of Inquiry into criminal child abuse by two PRIESTS in the Hunter region has found the CATHOLIC CHURCH failed for 40 years to inform police of known paedophile priests and misled police and refused to deliver relevant documents from the Vatican.

Josephus, if they used the words 'butchers' instead of PRIESTS and 'Fred's Butcher Shop' instead of the CATHOLIC CHURCH would you still be buy meat of Fred?

Television pioneer Reg Grundy may be the mystery donor who gave $200,000 to the Free Enterprise Foundation, a Liberal Party-linked entity that has been scrutinised by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption.

The $200,000 donation from Akira Investments is listed by the Foundation among its donor disclosure filings to the Australian Electoral Commission for the year 2012-13.

Akira Investments Ltd has failed to lodge a political disclosure donation form to the Commission as required by law.

The AEC is powerless to chase Akira Investments Ltd for disclosures as it has no international jurisdiction.

The $200,000 donation stands among the largest single amounts gifted to the Free Enterprise Foundation, described as "a tool for the Liberal Party" by Geoffrey Watson SC, Counsel Assisting ICAC, during his opening address on April 28.

According to the Free Enterprise Foundation's AEC disclosure, Akira Investments' address is 'Les Caravelles, 25 Blvd Albert 1er, Monaco'.

I wonder if the decision not to lift the taxes on smokes and grog has anything to do with the Liberal Party reliance on the lobbyists and donations from those industries?

After all, the Liberal Party was notorious for taking millions upon millions from “Big Tobacco” in donations over the years. The Nationals still accept donations from Big Tobacco.

We have also been made aware that the Liberals fundraising organisation The Millennium Forum is run by a man by the name of Paul Nicolaou, who is also NSW Chief Executive of the Australian Hotels Association, which one of the biggest lobby groups for the alcohol industry in this country.

No conflict of interest there...

Paul Nicolaou, you may remember, has been called before ICAC recently as the Liberal Party in NSW implodes over a corruption scandal the likes of which we have never seen before.

Despite Abbott’s and Hockey’s reluctance to lumber their tobacco and alcohol pals with a tax hike, prices will still rise on these items due to the Coalitions budget.

The increase in the fuel excise levy will also guarantees these companies freight costs will be pushed up and this will end up being passed on to the consumer — as it will for all of our groceries.

There has been a lot of talk about Abbott’s many broken promises since the budget reared its ugly head

BILL Shorten has described the Abbott government's handling of its first budget as a "circus of mistakes".

The opposition leader has urged his Labor colleagues to get out in the streets of Australia and tell the truth about the budget.

After two weeks of trying to sell its fiscal plan, the government continues to struggle in opinion polls and would lose an election if it were called tomorrow.

"We in Labor do not need poll numbers to tell us just how bad this budget is for Australia," Mr Shorten told the Labor caucus in Canberra on Tuesday.

He said if it wasn't how the government has handled its budget so badly it would be a joke.

"They are turning this budget into a circus of mistakes."

He said the challenge for Labor is to get out into the suburbs and streets of Australia to explain the budget.