http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/morsi-role-as-tipping-point-for-egypt-army-1.1450612 There is a lot more to these Egyptian revolutions than meets the eye. Apparently Morsi who was having severe domestic unrest was considering an attack on Syria thus consolidating his power at home by going to war. War though out history has been used as a distraction from domestic woes and to suppress dissent.

http://tarpley.net/ Webster Tarpley notes that the IMF imposed severe austerity measures on Egypt and thus the people rebelled, however the Egyptian Military saw war with Syria as being a disaster. Tarpley makes an excellent analysis of these events.

With Vladamir Putin arming Syria with advanced weapons and sending a permanent fleet of ships there, the Egyptian Military have probably stopped a massive war in the Middle East for the present.

Steady Arjay,

I sometimes think you “feel” things rather than actually “read and comprehend”.

There was no suggestion that Morsi was planning or proposing that Egypt go to war with Syria.

He failed to denounce the Muslim clerics in calling for a Jihad against Syrian Shia opposition forces but his call for “foreign intervention” was not a call for the Egyptian army to engage. It is more about the clerics “encouraging Egyptians to fight abroad, risking creating a new generation of jihadists”.

Go back and read your own link and stop getting emotional about what “think” was said rather than what was reported.

The problem with Egypt is that no one can fix their problem.
It is believed that the two revolutions of recent years are in fact the
first Peak Oil Revolutions.

From ancient times the Nile was able to support the population.
In fact Egypt was the breadbasket of the Mediterranean.
Oil production from the early 20th century produced an export income
which was used to subsidise imported food & fuel costs.

The population expanded from 40 million to the present 83 million.
However peak Egyptian oil occurred in 1993 and has declined to the
extent that Egypt is now an importer of fuels.
Unfortunately the Nile cannot support a population of that size and
to make matter worse the upper Nile countries are planning dams.

The first demonstrations started because of rising food and oil prices.
They then morphed into a political revolution.

If you want to see what a peak oil realisation looks like see the
first photograph in this link;

http://tinyurl.com/kum6ydk

Egypt faces Ludwigs nightmare;
Kill off half its population by starvation.
Go to war with its southern neighbours.
Force out into the rest of the world 40 million people.

Hi Bazz,

Not sure about the peak oil issue, Egypt is now fracking which is redressing the balance, check further down your own link.

Egypt’s economic woes are still primarily food production. Since the Aswan Dam was built there is no longer the annual flood, no flushing, no nutrients, soil degredation and shrinking arable land.

Once they had to start importing food they were in trouble.

I was there in 2011 and was shocked to see that the grand irrigation canal from Thebes to Cairo is empty. The west bank of the Nile has a towering wave of the Sahara pouring down on the Nile and I saw no arable land on the west side at all. I was told the even the fishing off the coast has gone, thought by the locals to be the lack of nutrient outflows.

Now they have killed off the last of tourism they are in deep doo doo

spindoc,

Good points.

The annual flooding has been integral to Egypt's existence since time immemorial, not only to Egyptian's material well-being, but also to their psyche.....cyclical renewal being the psychological paradigm.

Poirot,

An excellent point.

The culture of the Egyptian people remains strong in the South but interestingly, not so much North of Cairo. Alexandria is blessed with the Nile delta for agriculture; it is more westernized, has two new EU funded power stations, solid tourism and is less Islamic, even though they have a stunning Mosque as well as an equally stunning Cathedral.

The strong “psyche” in the south actually translates into division. From Cairo South they don’t even acknowledge Alexandria exists. For them the real Egypt and Egyptian culture is south of Cairo and that is where the most economic damage has been inflicted.

Glad we did the trip in 2011, wouldn’t want to visit now

spindoc,

Yes, it's difficult some to imagine that the nutrients left after the annual flood could be so important to a people, but Egypt's civilisation was only possible because of the yearly promise of renewal. I suppose in the South, they were closer to the land and the cycle of growth and decay.

There's huge division in that part of Africa over access to water.

There is a big dam being built on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, I believe, causing angst among neighbouring countries (will have to have a closer look at that).

Control of water will increasingly be pertinent to peace and prosperity in this region.

........

Arjay,

I can believe you are so naive as to imagine that Egypt would have possessed the capacity to make any sort of organised military incursion into Syria.

Arjay,
Egypt is no state to launch a military attack on anybody.
It is verging on "Failed State" status.

Spindoc;
Franking is sign of desperation. Just as it is in the US they
will do no more than delay further decline by several years at best.
There is just no hope of getting back to exporting oil.
Not even the US has been able to do more that increase their
production by a few percent for a few years.
I wish I had visited Egypt but it is too late now and I doubt if it
will ever be safe to visit again.

Poirot,

Some incisive points from you in your last post. I shot an email off overnight to Ahmed re some of the debate going on here. He points out that water, as you rightly point out is an issue, but he says although Egypt is almost 90% dependent on Nile water, it is not all bad news.

Firstly he points out that Lake Nasser is still one of the largest man made lakes on the planet and even though Sudan also draws water from it through Lake Nubia, its capacity to meet Egypt’s water needs is pretty solid. They see no real problem with head waters in the Blue or White Nile catchments being dammed as the overall flow should be enough for all. He thinks this is a “betup” (I think he means beat-up) by foreign media and he can’t identify any real concerns about this from within Egypt. Curious but Hey! He is on the spot.

I had not realised that the benefits of the “high dam” include two crops a year rather than the one crop associated with the annual flood. A bonus of “agricultural releases” in the dry season as he puts it. He also said that back in 1970 the electricity generated from the dam was sufficient then but falls well short of current needs due to population expansion and economic changes.

He mentioned one of the big problems they face is the cost of importing fertilizer. This is due to the lack of nutrients from the flood seasons. I hadn’t picked up on that. (They import much of this in the form of phosphates from Morocco, another revelation).

Ahmed also confirmed that one of the key issues is that the loss of the annual flood has caused the shrinkage/degradation of the overall arable land, which we addressed earlier.

He had much to say about the political situation and was scathing about “Western media” (again).

Hope this helps and thanks for your interest and astute comments on this. I’m impressed

Egypt if it attacked Syria would have the backing of the USA and Israel. The USA often fights wars by using proxies. Obama does not want to attack Syria, but nutters like Kerry ,John McCain and the factions in Israel, want to attack Syria and Iran.

If you listen to Tarpley here http://tarpley.net/ ,then you might understand. This was the neo-cons' big hope of forcing Obama into war and it has failed.

Bazz,

Sadly your trip to Egypt might have to wait a while. It was not that safe in 2011. We were desperate to visit to Abu Simbel but were advised against the trip. In the end we took the plunge and went for it. Our tour guide met us at an Egyptian Army Base in Aswan. Our coaches were seriously inspected by real “Army”, rather than the “Tourism and Antiquities” police.

We met our guide at 3:00 am (still 35 degrees). Each coach had an Army “thingy man” in civilian clothes with a 9 mm semi-automatic stuffed down his jeans. We stopped at Army checkpoints across the Sahara every 25 Kms but made the trip without incident.

Abu Simbel, like so many of the monuments saved from the flooding of the Aswan Dam, is one of those visits that can only be truly relished and replayed in retrospect.

I hope you make it some day. One of the great treasures of our travels has been that we discovered the real peoples of nations rather than the “Google” acquired perspectives of them. The Egyptians and Nubians were some of the most awesome and friendly people we have encountered and nothing like what we were presented with by our own media.

We find it really sad that many of the perspectives expressed on line are from people who have never experienced meaningful contact with such peoples.

Bazz, make a wish and make it come true.

Arjay,

Sometimes you are so far off the mark that some might think you are from another planet.

First you seek to imply that Egypt might be going to war with Syria and then you speculate on the “what if’s”.

Your hyper speculative conspirator theories and “straw man” postulations are indicative of someone who has lost their place in society. You really are out there and on your own with a tin foil hat.

Why don’t you try a heavy dose of reality? Or is this just for people who can’t handle drugs

Spindoc, my son visited Egypt and went to all the temples and was very
impressed and his photos were very spectacular.
I usually watch any docos on ancient history on such places so have
an interest in the subject.

Ahh well, as I often say you can't go everywhere and we have been to
many countries as tourists. We have only been on one conducted tour as
we prefer poking about ourselves. The exception was Amsterdam to
Bucharest on the rivers.

Those things are coming to an end I am afraid for future generations.

Spindoc I suggest you look at this and then take a really deep breathe. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7NsXFnzJGw General Wesley Clark is a four star General and the supreme commander of NATO from 1997 to 2000.

General Clark reveals that the de-stablisation of the Middle East was planned back in 1991.Memo from the Secretary of Defence well before 911,"We'll attack and destroy 7 countries in 5 yrs, starting with Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.

General Weseley Clark is no lightweight,along with Major General Albert Stubbline and Lt Colonel Robert Bowmen and thousands of others here http://www.patriotsquestion911.com/ know the truth of which you are in total denial