csteele

You are making the mistake of assuming that when I talk about China morphing into a decent democracy I mean they become a carbon copy of the US.

I mean nothing of the sort.

Actually I think US democracy has become dysfunctional and that is the biggest problem facing the US.

You are also making the mistake of assuming that because there is no free media in China we can form a reasonable picture of what problems China and Chinese people face. We can't.

We know all about the problems of the US precisely because they have a free media. Many people make the mistake that because we don't see the same, often coruscating, reports from China these issues do not exist.

We also need to recognise that the US is a multi-ethnic, multi-racial, multi-religious and multi-cultural society. China has a variety of ethnicities but is mostly run by Han Chinese. I wonder how they will cope with greater pluralism. If Falun Gong is anything to go by, not well.

My gut feel says to me that an overly authoritarian regime running a modern pluralistic society reliant on high tech is not sustainable.

We shall see what we shall see

Dear Steven,

I think you might be constructing straw men here.

You wrote;

“You are making the mistake of assuming that when I talk about China morphing into a decent democracy I mean they become a carbon copy of the US“

Not at all. I think the 'mistake of assuming' is yours, possibly understandable as the title of your thread reads "Is the USA in 'irreversible decline'?". However you clearly mentioned South Korea and Taiwan and these were the examples I had in mind when you spoke of democracies. I even quoted the passage in my post.

My last sentence was about the US being the most vocal proponents of the idea of that capitalism, democracy and freedom go hand in hand. I agree their version has indeed become dysfunctional.

You also wrote;

“You are also making the mistake of assuming that because there is no free media in China we can form a reasonable picture of what problems China and Chinese people face. We can't.”

I made no such assumption. You are confusing what is in the interests of the ordinary Chinese with what will make the nation the most powerful in the world within the next 20 years. Democracy may obviously better serve the former but my contention is the latter may well be best realised through a communist leadership husbanding a strident capitalism.

However I will make the point again, free media or not I see incarceration rates as a not inconsequential indicator of what a system needs to do in order to maintain itself. The US would appear to be the least sustainable by this measure.

Cont...

Cont...

What I do see as a huge strength of China is its diaspora. As conduits for Chinese interests both business and political these will prove to be incredibly valuable.

I have for many years felt Singapore, with its faux democracy was a harbinger of China's future and to a degree ours. Both solidly one-party states benefiting from stable and often dictatorial leadership. Singapore has the third highest GDP per capita. Its powerful government businesses buy up what we sell off, look at Singapore's stake in OPTUS. Just image what China will be capable of doing when it hits its stride.

Proper democracy is expensive in resources and efficiency. It requires nurturing from both the people and their governments plus some acceptance that it can sometimes hinder progress. Our governments of both stripes have been busily shovelling into the maw of globalisation the power we ordinary citizens once had to control our destiny and that of our nation.

China is showing us that capitalism and democracy are not strict bedfellows. The danger for us is that our leadership does not have the imagination yet to properly decouple them. If we want our democracy protected then it needs to happen soon or a nation tenant farmers and miners on tonnage rates could well be our future.

I was surprised Michael that you seem to have adopted a business as
usual stance on this matter.
Surely energy depletion will change the situation dramatically for a
nation like China with a majority of very poor people.

Western countries can go down the depletion curve more or less evenly.
In China those at the bottom are already there, it will be the rest
that will be affected dramatically.