<< One isolated incident of rowdiness, seven years ago >>

And didn’t it cause a stir! I think it is fair to say that there is a whole lot of concern about simmering tensions of the sort that flared up on that occasion. But I’m not surprised that you say that you are not concerned about it in your city.

<< Which causes one to ask, why did you bring it up in the first place, if not to highlight your anti-immigration posturing? >>

Because it is another downside of population growth in Sydney, along with all the others that I have repeatedly mentioned.

<< Did you read the litany of examples where their "forecasts" were spectacularly wrong? >>

You are still missing my main criticism of Lomborg’s article – that it is far too early to condemn the Club of Rome’s predictions, beyond some inaccuracy in the timelines.

If we look back on this after about ?2030, we may then almost be far enough down the road to say that the forecasts were spectacularly wrong…. if we haven’t seen major upheaval events by that time. But we can’t say that yet! And I get the distinct feeling that they’ll be proven right, at least in part, over the next few years.

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<< Did you read the reality behind our puny eforts at "recycling", which is a completely wasteful activity, a net consumption of money and manpower? >>

Now there’s something I’m inclined to agree with. Recycling is fine as part of a holistic approach to sustainability but in isolation it is meaningless. Yes, it has been used as an excuse by some to say that they are doing their bit for the environment by recycling, while at the same time overconsuming resources of all sorts and not giving a hoot about the bigger picture of sustainability.


<< They all "forecast" disaster, which not only hasn't occurred, but is further away than when they made their predictions. >>

Whaat??

Says who? Where does this come from? That’s really stretching it. Disaster… or major upheaval events of some sort…. are further away than when they made their predictions!? Interesting comment indeed!! ( :>|

<< So, exactly what convinces you that Lomborg is "off the rails"? >>

I really think I made that patently clear.

So Pericles, do you consider yourself to be a local or an immigrant or both? Which takes precedence?

That's a very odd question, Ludwig.

>>So Pericles, do you consider yourself to be a local or an immigrant or both? Which takes precedence?<<

I don't give it a moment's thought.

>>I think it is fair to say that there is a whole lot of concern about simmering tensions of the sort that flared up on that occasion<<

And I think that it is "fair to say" that Cronulla is only dragged into the conversation by people who feel it necessary to talk about "simmering tensions" and "inner-city powder keg" and "residents living in fear", for reasons known only to themselves.

>>...it is another downside of population growth in Sydney<<

If population growth in Sydney (have you ever actually lived in a city, by the way?) causes seaside hooliganism once in a blue moon, then I hardly call it a downside. Rather, it is indicative of a thoroughly stable environment.

>>...it is far too early to condemn the Club of Rome’s predictions, beyond some inaccuracy in the timelines<<

Not really. It is not so much the timelines, but the trends. Instead of becoming scarcer, all of their examples have become more plentiful. Nobody is for a moment suggesting that this will go on ad infinitum, that would be ridiculous. But if you start from a set of data that is so blatantly wrong, is it not fair to suggest that the "remedies" might also be pretty pointless?

Which puts into context your final expostulation.

>>Whaat?? Says who? Where does this come from? That’s really stretching it. Disaster… or major upheaval events of some sort…. are further away than when they made their predictions!?<<

Picture the scene. The villain in a silent movie has tied the beautiful heiress to the railway lines, and is sauntering away with a swagger and an evil chuckle. In order for the moment to hold any tension at all, the train must be heading towards her, not away from her.

So if you are predicating disaster on scarcer resources, when they in fact are getting more plentiful, surely the same logic will apply.

<< And I think that it is "fair to say" that Cronulla is only dragged into the conversation by people who feel it necessary to talk about "simmering tensions" and "inner-city powder keg" and "residents living in fear", for reasons known only to themselves. >>

This sort of thing is of considerable concern in Sydney for a lot of people. It is interesting that you dismiss it entirely.

<< have you ever actually lived in a city… >>

24 years in Perth. Does that count?

<< Rather, it is indicative of a thoroughly stable environment. >>

Really?

Sydney does have a pretty good level of harmony, compared to many cities around the world. But the stage is set for some pretty ugly carry-on when the various stresses associated with overpopulation start to manifest themselves more sharply.

<< Nobody is for a moment suggesting that this will go on ad infinitum, that would be ridiculous. >>

Exactly. That is the main point isn’t it? We are seeing good access to resources that were predicted by the Club of Rome to have become critically hard to obtain. But it can’t last, especially with the still rapidly increasing demand. And we really only need one vital resource to become badly depleted for major upheaval to occur.

I get the feeling that if we were to explore Lomborg’s article to the enth degree, we would agree on most of the nitty gritty, but still disagree on whether the Club of Rome got it basically right or wrong.

<< In order for the moment to hold any tension at all, the train must be heading towards her, not away from her. >>

Of course. But the proverbial train’s a-comin round the bend! How can you possibly figure that because of current relatively good resource access and quality of life around the world, the old choo-choo is actually heading down the track away from us??

Who was it who said:

<< Nobody is for a moment suggesting that this will go on ad infinitum, that would be ridiculous. >> ?

Nope.

>>24 years in Perth. Does that count?<<

That's just another country town, Ludwig, as you very well know.

I've lived and worked in Perth, and thoroughly enjoyed the place. But it is pretty much a backwater in city terms.

>>How can you possibly figure that because of current relatively good resource access and quality of life around the world, the old choo-choo is actually heading down the track away from us??<<

That's out of context. The observation was directly related to the predictions made by The Limits to Growth. They said "going down", and prescribed remedies appropriate to that condition. Since then, it has been only "going up". But some folk still believe that the medicine they were proposing - effectively, a reduction in all forms of industrial production - was appropriate.

Economic imperatives will eventually drive the necessary changes, in the same way that they have for hundreds of years - ever since we were an agriculture-based world, in fact. You can't see it, because you don't want to see it. Why you don't, remains a mystery.

< 24 years in Perth. Does that count? >

<< Nope >>

Haaa hahaha!

No wonder I felt the need to ask, coz I somehow didn’t think it would!

So where’s your cut-off point then Pericles?

What to you comprises a real city.. a man’s city…a megalopolis… and what is a woossy excuse for a city?

Sydney – now there’s a real man’s city if ever there wuz one. So presumably Melbourne is too? What about Briz or Adelaide – pretty woossy? Presumably Canberra and Hobart are both totally woossed out!

I’d say Perth definitely makes big city status. It is much more similar to Sydney than it is to Kalgoorlie…. or Townsville!

<< Economic imperatives will eventually drive the necessary changes >>

Absolutely they will. It’s just a crying shame that we seem unable to plan for these changes to any significant extent and have to just be beholden to the whims of changing economics.

<< Since then, it has been only "going up". >>

Since then resource access and quality of life have been going up. But what else has been going up?

Deforestation, overfishing, energy demand, the demand for everything else, the rate of depletion of relatively cheap oil and relatively cheap minerals, the amount of land under agriculture. You get the picture. To say that current indications are pretty good is to seriously not look at the whole picture!

The Club of Rome, Paul Ehrlich and others made predictions, which have not eventuated….yet. But the core of their messages is absolutely spot on!

So I can’t see how my train comments were out of context. No matter which way you look at it, the train is surely heading towards us and not away from us.

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