Whoops, forgot to comment on this;

send back the keys, to get rid of
the pesky mortgage. Nothing to do with fuel prices.

And that is what got the banks into so much trouble as the CDOs which
were an insurance policy in effect sent them broke.

Bazz, I have an Economist app on my Ipad, which is about various
country figures and the figures are a couple of years old, but
quoted as around 1.2 trillion for our GDP. So 1.3 trillion should
be close.

Yes oil prices matter, but they are not the only thing that matters.
America crashed when many things came together, which had been
bubbling under the surface for a while. GM did not get into trouble
overnight, it had been building up for a crash. The GFC forced the
issue onto the table.

The turnaround happened for a number of reasons too, not least
Bernanke's stimulation, which has made a huge difference.

Recessions as such are not such a bad thing. They clean out some
of the dead wood and as Buffett says, its when the tide goes out
that we see who is swimming naked.

At the moment a lot of companies in the US are thriving due to
record low gas prices, at 2.50 $. In Asia they have to pay 14-15$
for the same gas. Already fleets of trucks are being converted to
gas, stay tuned.

My problem with your pet theory is that you only focus on energy and
seem to ignore all the rest. That is simply not reality

Yabby said;
My problem with your pet theory is that you only focus on energy and
seem to ignore all the rest. That is simply not reality

Possibly, but I think it is the one overriding parameter that affects
all others.
"They" can play all sorts of games with money but without energy
nothing but nothing happens.

Anyway, an interesting discussion and as that $1.2T figure looks to be
correct and allowing for my approximate figures then we can watch and
see just how much trouble our non mining sector is in.

Cheers Bazz

*"They" can play all sorts of games with money but without energy
nothing but nothing happens*

Well yes, without energy, life as we know it, stops. Back to
Daisy the cow and 5 acres, which is actually not such a bad way
to live, IMHO.

The thing is, don't try to use energy as an excuse for everything,
for of course it is still available and people are constantly
developing more efficient ways to use it. Jobs and economic growth
can happen with service industries which use very little energy.

As the list of countries showed, some are doing very well with
present energy prices, so its clearly not all down to energy.

On Monday for instance, we had a public holiday here in WA. I
went to the local roadhouse and he was just busy closing the doors.
It's a country roadhouse, so not that busy. The owner explained that
he could could not pay people 40 bucks an hour to sell the odd
2$ cool drink, as it was double time by law for any staff. So he
closed, as the numbers did not stack up. Now I know plenty of women
who would have loved to work a few hours for 20$ an hour, but Govt
legislation prevents them from doing so. The result is less
economic activity and you can't blame energy prices on that one,
just political stupidity.