@Antiseptic: And what is going to drive such an uptake? The driver to date has been increased interconnectivity and the ability to download content.

I agree it's an interesting question, but an indication of how hard it is to answer is neither you not I know what is driving it now. It isn't increased connectivity - it only grew by 10% or so. People have always had the ability to download. If what is driving the ability to download in increased internet speeds - then guess what, that is what the NBN is going them.

@Antiseptic: I'm not thrilled to be paying so you can be thrilled with your toy.

So what do you think you will be paying?

Rstuart,

Also note fig 2 pg 14, where fixed line connections increased only slightly, and mobile wireless broad band connections doubled in 18 months to rival the No of fixed line connections.

Just have a look at this link with regards the exponential growth in wireless overseas, and the future trends, both in cost and speed. Then tell me that the fixed price recovery of the NBN is not going to be a huge problem for the viability of the NBN.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/50642393/6/Mobile-Broadband-Cost-and-Capacity-Trends

rstuart:"It isn't increased connectivity - it only grew by 10% or so."
The increase in the size of data allowances, the increased use of video content and the growth in content provision has been large. However, there's only so much content that one can watch. Unless some new mode of interaction comes along that uses much more bandwidth, I can't see that growth continuing, can you?

It would be an interesting calculation to perform to work out just how much total data per household is being consumed at present. the palns have grown masively, but has the traffic done the same? I don't think I've ever maxed out my allowance, except when I was buying data in 2GB blocks on 3g at one stage.

rstuart:"So what do you think you will be paying?"

At $43billion without the blowout factor I:'ll be paying, along with every other taxpayer, about $3500 or so. It'll probably end up nearer to $5000. Would I install an internet connection for myself if it was going to cost me that much? Not a chance. Would you?

@Antiseptic: At $43billion without the blowout factor I:'ll be paying, along with every other taxpayer, about $3500 or so

And so we go around the circle once again. How many times have we been over this now?

For a start the "real" price is I think is around $50 billion, or which $23 billion of that comes from private sources. The remaining $27 billion is coming from the tax payer, which is I guess about $2,700 per household.

However that $2,700 will generate a positive return over and above what the government pays in interest on government bonds. That return is supposedly generated by charging existing users what they are paying now for broadband. So this is not like road, hospitals, schools where the government doesn't get a return on your tax dollars. In fact if the our previous governments used all our tax dollars to make investments like this they would not be charging us tax - they would be paying us a dividend.

There are undeniably a risks just like there is with any new venture. Shadow views those risks as high, I low. But nonetheless taken on figures treasury(?) has produced, saying _you_ will be for the NBN out of your tax dollars is stretching things a bit.

@Shadow Minister: mobile wireless broad band connections doubled in 18 months

@rstuart: What is actually happening is are getting itsy bitsy data allowance with their shiny new iPhone's, and these are counted as broadband connections.

@Shadow Minister: Just have a look at this link with regards the exponential growth in wireless overseas,

They are projected figures pulled from someone's bum. The wireless providers here in Oz struggling to cope with 20% growth, while fixed line is growing at 50% paints a different picture.

I tried to dig up some meaningful figures, like the trends for average US or even better Korean downloads/connection/year, so we could compare to where Australia is now. Frustratingly I haven't been able to find anything. Everyone seems to be obsessed with number of connections and connection speeds, not total downloads.

@rstuart: I tried to dig up some meaningful figures, like the trends for average US or even better Korean downloads/connection/year, so we could compare to where Australia is now.

Ahh, finally found something, although I would not trust it overly. http://www.broadbandreports.com/forum/r25970193-Canadians-average-13.7-GB-bandwidth-per-month . If we continue at 50% growth per year it will take us 7 years to hit where South Korea is now.

I wonder what those South Korean's are doing with all that data Anti? I don't pretend to know. I just know it's likely they aren't that much different to us, apart from them having a high speed network now, of course.

Rstuart,

Don't you read your own links, the information under Fig 2 is:

Mobile wireless broadband includes services provided via dongles, datacards and USB modems. Excludes mobile handset internet.
Relates to ISPs with 1,000 or more subscribers. Includes household, business and government sectors.

NOT as you claim: " itsy bitsy data allowance with their shiny new iPhone's, and these are counted as broadband connections."

If you extrapolate, the number of mobile broad band connections probably already exceeds the fixed line connections. While presently many of these are complimentary to fixed line, as the wireless capacities ramp up, many of them will replace fixed line connections as they have in the USA.

Secondly, Which private sources are funding the $23bn. The returns are so low and the risk so high that no one in his right mind would touch it with a barge pole.