Lexi

Investing in shale oil is placing a bet on the future price of oil. If demand for oil continues to rise and prices remain at their current level or go higher then shale oil technology investments will pay off handsomely. Fortunes will be made.

If not 100% of the investment will be forfeit.

So this is not exactly the week’s safety bet. Here are just SOME of the scenarios that could derail the whole project.

(1) An Israeli electric car initiative called “a better place”.

See: http://www.betterplace.com.au/

I’d far rather see this one succeed than shale oil

(2) Artificial chloroplasts (photolysis)

Chloroplasts are those marvellous nanomachines in plants that use sunlight to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen is incorporated into sugars which, directly or indirectly, powers all life on Earth. In that respect we already are on the hydrogen economy.

As we learn more about chloroplasts the idea grows of building artificial nanomachines to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The process is known as photolysis.

I have no doubt we’ll crack it eventually but it could take a decade or three. Still, who knows?

(3) Genetically engineered bacteria

Plants are not the only organisms to do photosynthesis. Cyanobacteria got there first. As our genetic engineering skills grow we may be able to engineer bacteria to produce hydrocarbon fuels. In effect, no artificial chloroplasts, just artificial bacteria.

Again I am certain we’ll get there but it may take a decade or three.

(4) Better batteries and capacitors to store electricity.

This too could make electric cars a real possibility.

If all this sounds like sci-fi so did faster than sound aircraft and radar and mobile phones once upon a time.

I’d bet on at least one of these 4 to get there eventually; but shale oil extraction may get there first.

How long before Hamas/Fatah decide that they own it? Jordan must be kicking itself

Custard,

Jordan too has significant shale deposits. They would benefit enormously from any such development.

And, no, I don't think they'll be keen to share any windfall with Hamas.

The West Bank doesn't seem to have much in the way of shale deposits and Gaza none. Most of Israel's shale deposits are within the 1967 boundaries.

Yet within the area claimed by Hamas? I'd expect Fatah to get in on that act too, not to mention the UN.

I suspect that the current situation, with the ability of Iran to close the Persian Gulf at will, that the development would proceed rather more rapidly. The border with Jordan and Eilat would presumably be one route for export, especially as Jordan would benefit from sharing the facilities, securing pipelines.

Developing the industry is going to take some work, but if Israel and Jordan worked on it presumably the Gulf of Aqaba (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Aqaba) will also need to be developed, the reefs and marine environment in the Red Sea would presumably be fairly significant hurdles.