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The Forum > General Discussion > An iceberg appears on the NBN's horizon.

An iceberg appears on the NBN's horizon.

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Hey Bazz You been lookin in to ya crystal ball to make that prediction.
Who knows what oil there is to be found.
Hundreds of trucks a day go to West AU now, And they are not bothering the train at all. Train lines tend to go in straight lines;
You don't seem to have much faith in human inventiveness, No long haul trucks, that is giving in before any effort is applied.
I don't know what you mean about communications, being less important in 20 yrs time. What ever scenario you have planned for us will never happen.
There's big dollars to be had for the right ideas, so have a think about it.
Posted by 579, Sunday, 9 January 2011 10:45:50 AM
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Well 579 if this does not convince you then you are unconvincible.
Aaarrrggghhh I tried to copy the graph accross but it appears we
cannot insert graphs here.

So here is the link;
http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/
The graph to which I refer is titled the growing gap.
As you can see the quantity of oil discovered each year peaked in 1964
and each year since then the quantity found has been less.
The black line is oil production.
In 1983 the production line crossed the discovery amount.
Ever since then the shortfall in discovery has got larger.
Obviously this cannot go on forever. Currently we are using about 5
times the amount we discover each year.
In other words we are relying on old discoveries and it is these wells
that are depleting.

Now do you understand the urgency of the problem ?

ps the author is a retired oil field engineer and manager of Shell
and CEO of Total, so he has been there and done that.
Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 9 January 2011 1:51:11 PM
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Iraq is destined to become a bigger supplier than Arabia,
At present there is 4000 wells in production and enough for 40 yrs
at 85000 Barrels / day
Get up to date info at forbes.com
Posted by 579, Sunday, 9 January 2011 3:52:39 PM
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Those figues you quote are obviously wrong.
Iraq production will be one to two million barrels a day.
85,000 a day is absolutely nothing.
85,000 barrels a day would last the world just 86 seconds !

I suggest that 4000 wells producing is also wrong.
It could be that over time 4000 wells have been drilled, some dry and
some had produced and some still producing.
The number of rigs in each country is fairly well known, but off the
top of my head I can't remember where.

The problem is the huge size of the oil industry.
The IEA says that a new Saudi Arabia is needed every two years just
to keep up with depletion. It is just not going to happen.
That chart I linked to says it all.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 10 January 2011 6:49:42 AM
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