The Forum > General Discussion > The Australian Dutch Disease and the Norwegian Cure
The Australian Dutch Disease and the Norwegian Cure
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Posted by one under god, Tuesday, 19 October 2010 8:43:10 PM
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A much easier way to handle the Dutch disease is found in Deut 10. It is far less stressful than worrying about all the things that might go wrong which will lead to a premature death.
Posted by Richie 10, Wednesday, 20 October 2010 5:31:45 AM
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how can the instructions to building an arc
fix things here ...ritchie 10 i try to restore the alter into the temple not the temporal http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=4008&page=0 but to what end there are more self serving or serving the masters adgendas yet not realising that created in the temporal has permant fruits [im dutch] outcast to these great southern lands my people have one foot on the sea and made their own land... the lessons of the tu-lip BOOM rever-berate mankind through out time what the use to hold the ten commands holy yet adulterate their intente [..i prefere DUE-11...] Posted by one under god, Wednesday, 20 October 2010 6:58:16 AM
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Pericles
Retrospectivity is certainly an issue. New taxes should be phased in gradually for existing mines – say over a period of five years. Note that the tax itself would tend to reduce the value of the Australian dollar. Even the prospect of a tax would do that. It works like this. Most commodities are priced in US dollars. But most of the operational expenses of operating a mine in Australia are in Australian dollars. The value of the Aussie dollar at the moment seems to be driven mainly, not entirely, by commodity prices and the profits to be made from operating mines here. Therefore the mere prospect of a tax should move the A$ down so as to restore profit margins. In fact I would say that the mere prospect of a tax would in and of itself help ameliorate the main symptom of Dutch disease which is a currency so overvalued that non-commodity businesses become uncompetitive. The futures fund would not be a pot of money lying idle. It would, as I’ve said, be invested mainly in productive enterprises all over the world. Historically most index funds have provided a reasonable return. I understand the risks in what I propose. But the GREATER RISK seems to me to do nothing and be left in a precarious position when the commodity boom ends. And they all end. I don't think what I'm proposing is at all like Chavez. Chavez is using revenue from PetroVen to fund CURRENT expenses and handouts. That is a recipe for disaster and is why I am so adamant that the revenues from commodities taxes should not be spent. Even the interest and dividends should not be spent but used to reduce taxes for non-commodity businesses. However I'm always open to suggestion. If you accept my diagnosis of Dutch disease WHAT TREATMENT WOULD YOU SUGGEST. Posted by stevenlmeyer, Wednesday, 20 October 2010 7:05:56 AM
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Let's leave the "how to extract value for the community" problem on the table for the moment, stevenlmeyer.
Taxation is certainly one option. But it is a seriously blunt instrument, that often has consequences that offset the perceived benefit. For example, changing the ROI value of a project, which increased taxation would inevitably involve, will impact new investment. So while you might raise revenue from existing facilities, you would be throttling the golden-egg layer. It is possible to find an appropriate balance. But quite frankly, I wouldn't trust a bunch of public servants, who have never seen the inside of a real business, or been responsible for anything more challenging than where to go for lunch, to be able to negotiate a tax position that would be anything less than destructive. I was actually more interested in your concept of an investment portfolio. >>The futures fund would not be a pot of money lying idle. It would, as I’ve said, be invested mainly in productive enterprises all over the world. Historically most index funds have provided a reasonable return.<< That defines "idle", in my book. While it may be benefitting financially from "productive enterprises all over the world", it does not change one single aspect of our own economy. Think about it this way. You discover oil in your back yard. You get someone else to work it, and take a percentage. You stop work, have a great life, right up until the oil runs out. Then you live off the stash you have invested overseas. What do you do then? You are by now both fat and lazy, unable to learn a new trade, accustomed to living off the cheque that comes through every month. What you now realize that you should have done, is to use the money to start a new business. Or, given you have a lot of money, new businesses. Or even, buy up overseas companies so that you can earn revenue, and not just dividends, once your oil runs out. Do you have any idea how difficult our government makes each of those options? Posted by Pericles, Wednesday, 20 October 2010 7:57:10 AM
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I agree the index funds are successful, but they still have the
disadvantage that they put off doing what we should be doing now. They could be used while, awaiting tenders, awaiting completion of contracts etc, but I do not think we have a need long term investing. We need to stop spending on roads and start spending on infrastructure for a time of low growth and a severe shortage of liquid fuels. I suggest that all read the following URL. It is US orientated, but there are some extraordinary similarities between the US and Australia. We both have less than 50% of our own oil. Both have significant coal supplies. Both have annihilated our manufacturing base. We both have significant agricultural production. We both have significant minerals production. So I believe that this URL has some thoughts for us all. http://www.thestreet.com/story/10889286/1/energy-crisis-there-is-no-plan-b.html There are four pages to the link. It is only the scale that is different. Additionally, it is more likely that we will be elbowed out of a tight international oil market than the US will. Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 20 October 2010 9:27:09 AM
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by all means --Tax the hell out of coal
and other commodity exports but SPEND THE REVENUE...on tax cuts for low income wage earners [whos basic wage has fallen through the floor
[why..because tv/vidios/import.. {luxury goods] is falling...but basic service charges...water/power/toll's food in aussie dollars prices are going though the roof
DONT--Place the proceeds of the taxes in an offshore "future fund".
thats a clever way of loosing value..by all means spend it on the now cheaper imports...but fund managers love having pools of funds to manage for their high managment fees
we have been shafted for far too long...mr howhard took 10 percent of our wage increase to create a 'super'/SCEME..for his invester manament mates to get nice bonus to by up lots of stuff...worse with the income stream..BORROWED heavilly..most of the super goes to paying intrest...and the second the debt is cleared they get yet more debt...its a lovely scam...they gamble with your COMPULSORY super
ADD the EXTRA burden of GST...
[only another 10 percent CUT IN THE BASIC WAGE]
you soon see the big scam..[sceme]
next you get a big new tax
carbon tax sold on deception and lie
[seeing a pattern here...
like who will suck on that cash cow?
manage it for nice bonus?
lets recall the DUTCH tulip boom
were now in a global buy up scam
using your super funds...and their bonus.. chews up any proffits
somehow they dont even pay tax...
BRING BACK DEATH DUTIES
to whom so much was given -so much more is to be expected
[yeah i know my writing is hard to read
but its hard to count and create]
im so over the con jobs..scams
let the sleepers sleep
they dont care
why should i