Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo has won the Nobel Peace Prize.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/08/liu-xiaobo-nobel-chinese-fury

I for one, think that he deserves it and it's a much better choice than the choice of Obama last year.

However, I can't help but feel that there are going to be some negative points to come out of this.

First - it's going to make life very difficult for him. But given that he's put up with a lot over the years, I suspect he'd still be pleased. This will draw a lot of attention to the peaceful protest he has been undertaking.
It will also get a lot of Chinese talking about this issue. Many Chinese I have spoken to have no idea who Liu Xiaobo is, but that will charge now, regardless of the government's attempts to block this. People will be curious.

My suspicion is that the CCP knows they can't block this news indefinitely but they're buying themselves time to put together their response.

It's going to be along the lines of the idea that the Nobel Peace Prize is a weapon of the west, being used to destabilise China.

Unfortunately this is going to work very well. The fact that Obama was the previous nominee is going to aid them in painting this picture.

And for those apologists for the CCP out there, just to be clear - Liu Xiaobo has been jailed for 11 years, despite the fact that he has done nothing violent. He is not in favour of a violent overthrow of the party nor is he a proponent of a rapid revolution.

His crime was to put together a list of gradual reforms that would mean that the CCP does not hold all of the reins of power and that other parties would exist. Hundreds of prominent intellectuals signed his charter and for this, he has been arrested.

Anyhow, what are your thoughts? What will happen next?

Some words from the man himself. He wrote these when he was facing trial for creating charter 08, which led to him being jailed for 11 years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/11/china-liu-xiaobo-free-speech

The original Chinese untranslated copy is here:

http://www.bullogger.com/blogs/stainlessrat/archives/351520.aspx

"But I still want to tell the regime that deprives me of my freedom, I stand by the belief I expressed 20 years ago in my hunger strike declaration – I have no enemies, and no hatred. None of the police who monitored, arrested and interrogated me, the prosecutors who prosecuted me, or the judges who sentence me, are my enemies. While I'm unable to accept your surveillance, arrest, prosecution or sentencing, I respect your professions and personalities. This includes the prosecution at present: I was aware of your respect and sincerity in your interrogation of me on 3 December."

A perfect choice for the Nobel Peace Prize TRTL. China has already responded as expected in referring to Mr Liu as a criminal. Certainly a more apt choice than Obama in the previous year.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/10/09/3033936.htm

It is about saving face and this prize slaps them across both cheeks - they were never going to take it lightly.

But well done Norway.

PS: the prize has already had positive effects on calls for Mr Liu's release from prison.

It is a tricky situation given China will not want to lose face but also wants to participate in the world economy, but will the dissenters have the courage of their convictions or do they fear China's influence, strategic and economic, too do much more than make public statemetns.

Is there a face saving solution for China?

China's reaction will depend on Norway's availability of supplies
of rare earths.
If they do not have other supplies they will ask how high ?

Japan caved in in one day, I wonder how long it will take Norway ?

Wait till oil starts to get short and China has tied up most supplies
with long term contracts. Then we will receive our orders !

Here's a wild guess.

China's ambassadors will protest grumpily for a few days. Their government will steadfastly ignore any and every call from foreigners to release Mr Liu from prison - "what business is it of theirs anyway?" Then they will sit tight until the noise dies down.

Which it will.

They are well aware that our press has the attention span of an amnesiac gnat, and an approach to "news" that relies on novelty, colour and movement.

And we, the general public, will play out part in the drama by forgetting about Mr Lee, or Lui, or whatever his name was, in less than a fortnight.

*sigh*. Pericles, you are of course, quite right.

Though given that this is the first time a Chinese citizen has one a peace prize, it will at least ensure that when he retires, Liu will be able to get lots of well paid speaking engagements.

Which isn't what he really wants though. The CCP has been encouraging him to move overseas for quite some time.

At the very least, some curious Chinese citizens will want to find out why. At present, he's almost totally unknown. Even if 0.001% of Chinese internet-using citizens take the time to find out something about him, well, that's something given there are 300 million of them.

Bazz, I don't think China would put the rare-earth thumbscrews on that obviously, for the simple fact that they import and export a great deal. That means threats in terms of restricted imports, as well as the threat of tariffs.

If they strongarmed Norway in such a manner, I think the US would be quite likely to slap tariffs on Chinese products which would open the door for Europe to do likewise.

The situation with Japan was much more subtle than most commentators have indicated. China has been under-supplying Japan for a long time. Their demand is very high. So, Japanese manufacturers have taken to buying rare earths on the black market.
China threatened to crack down on that black market. Technically, their rare-earth export totals remained the same.
The threat was much more difficult to counter in Japan's situation - you can't really complain as easily when a country just says it's going to do a better job of enforcing its laws.