We have a pilot production plant sitting, in mothballs, [or perhaps rusting away], on the Rundel shale oil deposit.

It went into production, then we were told that the oil companies would not buy the oil it produced, profitably at A$50 a barrel. The owners did not make enough noise at that time, to be a company being ripped off by big oil. A simple restriction on import licences for off shore oil would have had that oil flowing into our tanks.

At the time, I wondered if they had been bought off, to preserve that oil. There is heaps more shale oil to be had in Oz, & coal to oil conversion is viable at present oil prices, so I don't think we will run out of oil any time soon.

There's heaps under the reef too. You only have to look at the way greenies went to hide, about new dams, when our/their water was threatened, to know they would not resist any exploitation when their life styles were threatened to know all of this is available, when really needed.

It may cost a bit more, with a miners tax, but it is available.

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10744

I long for $5 a litre petrol.
I am sure that we will cope. Australians have always been at our best in a crisis. These days we are becoming fat, bloated and spoilt with a commensurate tendency to be violent, negative and self destructive.

A bit of hardship and turmoil will do us all a lot of good. A chance to pull together and rearrange society to better suit the needs of the post industrial, post capitalist world and end the exploitation, subjugation and destruction that has led us to this sorry situation.

It is not a matter of IF it will happen. The oil will run out. We must accept that there is nothing we can do and move on as we have so often in the past.

Unfortunately, shale oil and tar sands are even more pollutive than dirty old brown coal. Canada has great tar sand reserves, producing oil for about $30 per barrel. The rule of thumb, is that you burn a barrel of oil in the process of creating one. Coal to oil, not exactly new as they did this during the second world war, and is also a very pollutive process. When it can be demonstrated that the alternative makes an even bigger mess, it is easy to see why this option is not considered realistic.

Petrol will become $5 per litre, about the same time the average wage is about $5000 per week. Look back in history and you will see the same pattern. In the mid seventies petrol was about 17c per litre, and the average wage was about $50 per week.

A legislative approach is needed, because taxing is just taxing... nothing to do with the identified issue beyond its name. The idea that its all about to go pear-shaped is simply a distraction from other serious environmental issues.

Ah this is the glass half full or half empty scenario

Many years ago world oil supplies were confined to shallow land based deposits and shortages loomed

Then deep drilling was developed

After a while those deposits started to grew scarce

And coast drilling was developed, like UK’s North Sea Oil, and pressures eased

Now ocean drilling sustains us.

Mankind is an innovator

Doubtless when the demand price increases sufficiently to support innovative development,

Someone will think of something else....

And the henny-pennys will all breath a sigh of relief, the sky having not fallen in again

The influence of “market forces” are not perfect,

just better than anything else.

Ludwig:- You are spot on.
I think we should for a political party called "The Tell it Like it Is !" party.
Worldwide politicians do not want to face the problem.
They, when pressed, waffle about energy security and spin the discussion onto global warming.

This morning I heard a director of the Major Finance company in Australia telling us how there is good promise of growth.
I find it hard to believe they are not aware but like the pollies they are waiting for something to turn up.
The financial world is in la la land.

Forest:- Yes, When I pushed ny financial advisor son on the problem, his answer was
"What do we do ? Shut the business down and go fishing ?"
I agree with you we should nationalise all foreign owned interests in coal, oil and gas.
Linc Energy has a pilot plant producing diesel from underground coal burning and they are now
experimenting with feeding a fuel cell to produce electricity.

However all this work is 20 years too late.

Examiner:- The transition will not be seamless.
The Hirsch report warned that with a 20 year start it might be seamless, and with a 10 year start it would be a big financial and social crash.
However with a zero year start it will be cataclysmic.

Renew:- It is the scale of the problem that boggles their collective minds.
It is just not possible to crank up biofuels to the size of production needed.
One quote I saw, algae ponds the size of Ireland would be needed to supply Europe !

Pat:- The problem has nothing to do with carbon.
Energy is the problem, CO2 is just what they are arguing about.
Also they need more than US$50, more like US$70 I think for oil sands.
There is a problem with the amount of gas & water they use to heat the sand
to be continued

Continued:

Hasbeen:- Shale oil has a problem as it is not oil but a step before oil is produced in the geology.
The Energy required to turn it into oil is more than what it is worth unless you are in a war.

Stern:- Well you are an optimist. Even if they do find such supplies they will be too late now anyway.
They need a new Saudi Arabia every two years.

Very interesting from everyone. It is encouraging to see that I am not alone.
The problem is that by the time the politicians face it, it will be far too late to do other than introduce rationing.

My recommendation, buy a few pairs of good walking boots.