It is impossible to discuss the Middle-East without discussing oil.

Were it not for revenues generated from oil and gas Iran would probably not be a theocracy able to contemplate nuclear weaponry and Saudi Arabia would not be able to finance Jihadi preaching madrassahs across the world. Dubai would still be a primitive third world town and nobody would be holding trade talk in Doha.

After soaring to $140 / barrel the price of oil is back in the doldrums. That's probably done more to crimp Iran's arms build-up than anything the Israelis are likely to do.

What of the longer term future. Will the price of oil go up - and up - and up - and up? Or will it sink below the horizon?

Here's one person who does not believe oil has a great future. You see, he no longer scrapes horse manure from his boots.

http://www.straight.com/article-176994/international-energy-agency-suggests-peak-oil-will-come-sooner-previously-believed

Place your bets

any article that even mentions 'peak oil' is a deception
we still have not reached 'peak oil;many old oilwells are now actually refilling[plus russia and indonesia just found the biggest oil fields ever]

thing is you are right in them driving down the price of oil
but its more against chaves and puton ,getting an easy ride with bounty from oil[expect when they[not the opec they]drive the price back up [to see it help realise hyperinflation] as petrol yet again distorts 'the numbers'

even the fire that 'caused' [is yet causing the current fuel shortage is trevealing that oil is franchised into too few hands] there has been no increase in fuel refiners for 40 years[we could use some 'infastructure spending' on building new ones[built specificlly to refine sustainable oil from algae]

peak oil has been beat up for far too long

i dont even bother reading any link that publisises the deception in its heading [google will soon only be searching the headings]

its time to crack open that oil cartel[they just woke up that increasing it was hastening it own self to die]but they will return, their greed knows no bounds

then we will all yet be forced to pay sigapure [singapoor?]special blend prices for a rather'standard'franchise[controled globally by a bankers cartel]
[our standard fuel price
somehow is linked to singapure 'super' retail price]
but hey dont it rake in the govenment tax take

I took the link on board stevenmyer thanks, but not its message.
Not for the reasons OUG has I doubt peak oil is yet on us.
I get amused at the doom and gloom merchants who said it was here months ago.
Some also spoke of $200 oil by now or not far away.
My reasons are these, we would be much further down the road to new fuels if governments did not protect the oil industry.
They do not want new fuels just yet.
But the over inflated oil prices driven by greed not shortages showed us, not governments we must move now.
We will we are, moving toward other power source's.
The car industry debacle in America highlights that country's failure to even begin to compete with other nations, they now must get very busy to survive, they will.
Long after we find our new fuel, new energy, we will still have oil in the ground
OUG
No intent to be rude, down load an Ispell spell checker, the one that lets you right click your mouse and check your posts.
worth a try.

Whether we are approaching a point where oil availability declines or not -

I think the benefit with higher oil prices is it directly encourages and promotes, through natural market forces, the development of viable alternatives.

My personal view is "strength through diversity" and we do need a "commerical" alternative to oil as a primary energy source and whilst bio-fuels have something to offer the grain and farm produce sources imposes a radically skewed demand in a previously balanced food market.

Without a solution to the dangerous and lengthy half-lifes of waste and biproducts, nuclear energy, whilst "clean" remains limited in application.

Ultimately, I will hold faith in the innovation and ingenuity of individuals to solve the problem and the incompetence of government to defeat their efforts.

Belly: "I doubt peak oil is yet on us."

Try a thought experiment. In an era when the price of crude tripped, what would you predict would happen to oil production?

Made your prediction? Great. Now look at this, and explain what you see:

http://www.worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTICS_DETAIL.asp?Statfile=_worldoilproduction

stevenlmeyer: "the price of oil is back in the doldrums"

We are in a recession, the prices of all commodities are dropping like stones, and I paid over $1 per litre on the weekend. If this is "the doldrums", god help us when demand takes off again.

rstuart you and I need not agree on this but we are bound to see better fuels new fuels.
We are already seeing Yank tank type cars sending those who made them broke.
It took oil well on the way to $200 to do that
America land of the once brilliant business man is now trying to compete and build cars they should have lead the world in but tailed the rest.
Oil production has been cut but prices continue to fall, OPEC may regret its own failure to understand business principles as it match's Americas unwanted cars with pricing itself out of the market.
We will have and use some oil, long after we have found new power courses.
Even western governments reluctance to threaten the oil economy will be over come by new fuels, not better time will come than now.
This crisis is fertile ground for change.

Belly,

Interestingly, despite the Bush administration, the most exciting developments in second generation bio-energy are based in the US. Here is a link to a list of 50 start-ups.

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/12-22-2008/0004945680&EDATE=

Of course most of these will fail just as most of the software start-ups in the 70s and 80s failed. But one of them may be the Microsoft of biofuels.

Another possible development is the ability to tap oil trapped in shale. A recent breakthrough has enabled gas companies to extract gas trapped in shale creating an instant gas-glut in North America. The energy now available from shale gas is equal to about two thirds of the alleged oil energy in Saudi Arabia.

belly quote>>we have found new power courses<<

he bro where can i get one of your great 'spell checking ' gismo's
i wanna sound as clever as you do

spellcheck is not the SOURCE of wisdom[you still need to know what correct word to pick[im much like you in this respect]

i figure people are able to chose to get the intended meaning or not[and if they arnt they wouldnt get what im posting anyhow]we each need to confirm our info for ourselves

[im not even close to perfect, at least i dont need cheats trying to sound more clever than i am,
yet still it must be great to be as clever as you]

worst thing is i agree with most of what you say
[usually]; most of it at any rate]

im fully illiterate[but have grown to love it]

even more so , when i stumbled across ''the foolish will confound the wise'']

it is via over-confidence where people make their worst errors

but this is also where we reveal our very humanity
[only god is perfect]

to err is HUH?-man
to forgive is devine

love ya belly

yep got me ONE UNDER GOD my spell check changed it to that, I failed to proof read it.
Now lets not get sentimental, we are unlikely to be friends, but true before spell check my posts looked much worse.
Still learning, every day of my life I am stilling learn, but meant no harm to you.
I owe my improvement to a poster in another forum long ago, two years?
We had personal messages and I got one from a wise poster told me the truth, for most the contents of a post matter more than we wish.
Every now and again I remember that kind action, and try to pass on a good deed.
I do not follow your God or your thoughts mostly, but my intent was only to help
Enjoy Christmas stay away from my bar b q its a bit pagan like

no sweat belly
i love people with wisdom[you and many others have much]

my posting style has modified over time

[unfortuinatly i wasted my life reading stuff[and never learned to write[properly]while you guys were learning vowels i was learning dutch,by the time we returned to oz i managed to struggle through 4 more years of'education'before joining a union and going to work helping to build the gladstone alumina plant[till the courts suspended my licence]

we each have our lifes missions,mine meant seeing life from the standpoint of an illiterate and godless person[till i learned to read english[with a bible]and darwins origen of the species[then searching out all the related referances]till one day i realised science has fooled everyone[and that god lives'live' time[in'real'time all the time]

its all excuses[but 11 years of education,lol]then going to jail via the'court'system a few times;for letting a plant grow made me the loud mouth[opinionated]'being'i have become,i only know what i know [the only sure thing i know is god][i love his creation[genericlly; not specificlly]

so i follow the path of my many'teachers'[who though dead] became'real to me by the words/writings they left behind

[those'dead'authers are for me more'real'than'you guys'[or rather your many and varied words and wisdoms]when i say read it was[more]reading the dictionary[to understand what each word meant]sadly im more intrested in what a word MEANS than the rule on how to spell it

i dont have such things as peers[nor childhood'friends']am socially inept and am just as my words reveal me to be[whatever that is]

[a'friend'i had a long time ago said i write as i speak[volumiously]

[my'hand'-writing is unreadable]if this is in any way'readable'its only because a few years ago i taught myself to'turn on'a computer and type[with one tired finger]

anyhow i wouldnt swap my life for anyone elses,[and the occasional compliment[confirmation?]i occasionally get from others,i know is despite my poor spelling[not because of my'spell'checker[and usually the only come back people offer is're'my'spelling'[not what i said]but how i spelled it out

anyhow merry jesus birth day[to you and yours[from me]
cheers

Now that was a good post OUG I know some will be grinning at both of us as they read this but the subject is worth expanding on.
My childhood as the oldest of a large family was never going to be about education.
Even before I left school I was working, to help feed my siblings,
not quite 13 it became full time, then my education came, reading as if hungry every book I could find.
Not until I reached 35 did I find a 486 PC, by then I was senior union delegate hand writing weekly 4 page reports.
Here I go again , laugh at your self its great therapy.
I photo copied my hand written reports, sent it to 38 depots each photo copied it and passed it on.
Even I often had to think about what I had written, yet they read it.
two great blokes a boss and a man now dead made up my cover sheet for e mails.
A little bear the one we all know, he has bent over writing with a feather, saying my spelling is ok its just that the words wobble and get out of place.
years have passed, that 486 was a start, each day I learn.
I read still, consume more than read learning is a must next month it will be 50 years from the day that kid left school 50 years of working.
OUG I once briefly followed your God, I took a chance and kicked away from the wall holding me, got to the deep end of the pool, I found greatness in man.
Follow your reason for living but it is not a merit badge to be feisty, to be proud of our selfs for not fitting in.
As a unionist forever I will not change but I value every opinion, even those I do not share.
Most of all one under God I endlessly look for reasons others think as they do.
And if its called for, if no other way exists, I will fight like two Tigers to be heard.

by 1986 i decided to stop supporting'the system'with my taxes[i reasond;if govt could send me to jail['force'me to give up my two jobs to go to jail]i wasnt playing'their'game

my'days'were spent reading while watching tv AND listening to the abc[all at the same time]reading 3 or 4 books per-day[only non-fiction of course[now im flat out reading at all][i only went out to put in my dole form,one day they said you have to'write'down jobs that you app-lie for[i said;i dont apply for jobs]

they said;if you dont we will cut you off[i said;fine saying i will rob banks[they said'we'are sending'you'to a phyc,he put'me'on a pension[thats when'i'stopped going out alltogether[till 1996]when i thought i should see a bit of'reality'[the'real'world]before the y2k killed it all off

..became an'activist'[joined the hemp party[life-member]they thought me a narc[so went to canberra'helped the ab-origonal's]got speared;assulted with a beer bottle and plenty of other things]in time realised that;protest dont work[and withdrew home[back to my bed room,been web activist ever since]

interesting this'haneef'thing[my 5 answers accounts were cancelled[commenting on'how'howard was using'it'to get re-elected[he'loved'the grand[911-type]destraction]he didt get away with that one[but i lost two years of blogging,and my tenth'website'on which to'blog]

now im winding-down[i realise blogging dont/work either][they can and do censor me'live'time]im just content to wait till god shuts the lights off[when we die off][sure i will be between'heaven and hell'if there is an after being][there is]i have friens/teachers on'both'sides of the after-aether,but as for'life'been there done that.

i did it the best'i'was able[when jesus is said to have been rejected[even by his own,i understand that perfectly]not that i claim any as my own[i even stopped talking to the faMILY]figuring my'insanity'worries them too-much

this world is filled with'fine and good and true'people[i learned not to judge anyone,even howhard[/hitler /stalin/idi amin]has those who love him/her,but only one loves everyone[god]

anyhow it is my'best'friends'birth-day'soon[happy-birthday;jesus[im cooking the leg of pork now]to remember the dude whos way helped me see[it is not what a man puts in his'mouth'that makes him unclean[but that which issues forth from it]

cheers[back to peak-oils deception]

You have grabbed a lot of different straws as the stream of life passed you by.
No offense mate but unless a reason exists, I think it does here, no one should lay back and let me earn his living.
I born a communist, then evolving into a true socialist, there is a difference.
No longer believe in paying those who seek a life of unemployment anything.
We can do far better with our tax's feed nations like Zimbabwe for a start.
And a living income for pensioners.
Again no offense meant Christmas is to most about a bloke in a red suit.
If it was not for the spending the festival of greed it would be long forgotten.
Tried sausages sizzled in Bundy? might give it a go Saturday.
Happy no ones birth day festival to all.

BELLY>>No offense mate but unless a reason exists,I think it does here,no one should lay back and let me earn his living.>>

govt declared WAR ON ME[their unlawfull[unconstitutional acts]made me a criminal[for growing a plant]

yet they want me to go back to my minimum wage work[but cant as im'a-credited with a jailable offense[MADE CRIMINAL][for growing a plant[not selling it
just letting it grow]

mate i can outwork any' two' people[built my'own'house[im abouve average[but'would'work for half the'AVERAGE WAGE[what'average person gets the'average wage]?

>>I born a communist,then evolving into a true socialist,there is a difference.>>

[belly there are so many perverted meanings attatched to the lables
[i believe if you get paid your wage its tax free]

tax is unconcstitutional[income tax was only brought in[against the con-stitution]to pay off war debt[when the fed lent govt more than govt had in treasury

[they cashed in the paper for gold[got one third of the govt silver/gold reserves[so govt couldnt repay the fed'intrest'bearing bonds intest[that the_fed created by the govt-bond]

anyhow the story is complicated[but any govt'could'ssue their'own[but they gave the'right'to demand intrest to the fed[thus govt has to pay intrest on its own money[paid'back';VIA YOUR 'income'tax[wages ARNT INCOME.!

>>No longer believe in paying those who seek a life of unemployment anything.>>mate no income support[the landlords go bust]govt dont pay dole for the poor,but so the rich can get rent assistance[were paying half our'income'just for a house

BUT[one dollar a day dudes can build their own hut for free]

our'income'supports the capitalist system[govt lends the money from the fed[our gst,tobacco [alcohol] fuel [carbon taxes [speed fines [court fines
[pay it back]

im paying as much tax as you[i smoke drink,drive eat etc
[if your paying tax on'wages'[learn the[INCOME}tax law']

income comes from buying and selling
[no value added]thus INCOME tax is due

>>We can do far better with our tax's feed nations like Zimbabwe for a start.>>

zimbabwe is our future

they are field testing all this oppression,
so the elite can rule over'their'serfs[in THEIR fiefdoms]

[while the'serf' pay half their income on rent]
then WORK for food

[remind you of slavery SERF?]

one under God a few points before I wander of.
Congrats on your spelling, good stuff, it matters mate.
I once posted in heat without reviewing my post, I no longer do.
Now my post history tells of tough times as a kid, and not much different in my early life.
My family and extended family battles still.
And I remember a kid, now a man I bought from child to man, telling me it was unfair he should have to work for the dole!
I am proudly left of center, but not far from reality, laws are for a reason.
Your God has laws, you would condemn me if I did not follow them.
What if I thought love thy neighbor meant freedom to love his wife?
See I believe in a new socialism, its out now, nothing like the one that kills effort, or rewards slackness.
Every human should carry his/her own load, if any way exists they can, no free rides.
We must care more for those who can not and less for those who will not.
my tax's only concern me if they are wasted.
My country hills , for hundreds of K,s are not the only home of some who will not work.
And meditation vegetation is not only used by those who live apart from the rest of us.
But I see more who have ruined lives because it became the only important thing in their lives

belly>>laws are for a reason.>>
yes revenue raising,or so police can search people..[without a warrent][warrrento'means'reason]..[drugs are a health issue,not a police issue[unless someone is adulterating them or killing people with them[,law is there to protect a VICTIM being created[so the'victim'can see the'oppressor'punished[in'court'im the ONLY one not being'paid'to be there

>>God has laws,you would condemn me if I did not follow them>>

i dont condem anyone[jesus sought out'sinners'.because many who trangresed the'aditional'laws,suffered undue-ly]god is said to have'sent'10 laws[that the priests refined into 550[or so]

>>What if I thought love thy neighbor meant freedom to love his wife?>>
what makes you think'love thy neighbour'is a law?

the'law'about'adultery'is about NOT'adulterating','GODS WORD'/goods

>>Every human should carry his/her own load,if any way exists they can,no free rides.>>mate i been campaining to end this'moral'law that criminalises one percent of the population each year[48,000 queenslanders last year ALONE]45 percent of people IN JAIL are there for drugs[a victimless crime,till we become a victim of a flawed law

>>We must care more for those who can not
and less for those who will not.>>

mate the system has labeled me a criminal[i go to an airport[or go for a job[straight away I AM EXPOSING my criminality]the first question with a job is do you have a criminal record]i only had to be asked it the second time'to catch up on the scam'

>>my tax's only concern me if they are wasted.>>[mate govt money is allways'new'money,your tax take belongs to the bankers[as repayment for past debt PLUS the'fed'bankers intrest[ursury]

>>who will not work.<<would you work for the hand that has beaten you up[sent you to jail via a lie?[or would you haver the strength to say fuc u and your corrupt'victimisation'system[i walked the talk
>>And meditation vegetation<<?

>>But I see more who have ruined lives because it became the only important thing in their lives<<

mate supply and demand[govt created the shortage]where dope grows on the side of the road they use it for industry not smoking[govt beat it up[created the demand,then criminalised it to capitalise on it[and to have furher powers to oppress