A summary of where your vote is likely to end up if you vote above the line in the senate. Updated for the 2007 election.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/electoral-reform/senate-group-voting-tickets-above-line-guide.html

Roughly 95% of Australians vote above the line in the senate. This makes voting far easier and gives considerable negotiating power to the party you vote for. The downside is that many people are unaware of how their favourite party distributes preferences and may not agree with where their vote ends up. The table below makes it easier for people to figure out what will happen to their senate vote. The information is from the Australian Electoral Commission website. It is based on the senate group voting tickets provided by each party in NSW for the 2007 federal election (other state senate tickets are likely to be very similar – check the AEC website if you have concerns).

Each party that was registered in NSW is listed on the left and the numbers to the right indicate how it ranks the seven major parties. The seven parties were chosen because they all currently have sitting senators, or did so until recently in the case of One Nation. However you vote, your ballot paper will probably end up in the pile belonging to one of these seven parties. Remember that your vote can count towards the election of several senators – if your first choice has double the necessary number of votes to get elected, he is elected and your ballot paper is passed to your next choice, but has half it’s original value. So make sure you agree with at least the first few rankings, especially if you vote for Labor or the Coalition. Where more than one ranking is indicated, your vote will be split evenly in two or three ways. This is because parties are allowed to submit up to three equally weighted senate tickets.

Only half the Senate is up for re-election, so whatever happens, Labor cannot win control of the Senate.

That leaves three possible outcomes:

1) Liberals win government and control the Senate (as now).

2) Labor wins government, but faces a 'hostile' Senate blocking legislation.

3) The Greens win the balance of power providing responsible review of legislation for whoever wins government.

The choice is yours.

It should be pointed out that the balance of power could easily be jointly held by the Greens AND Democrats. Given there's relatively little difference in policy, but the latter have the experience and a stronger philosophy of negotiation above idealism, I would like to see at least one Democrats Senate seat remaining, although current polling is not looking too favourable (Bartlett has the highest primary vote, but the preferences are against him).

Yes, pity about Bartlett. He's a good guy, but as a Qld Greens member I'm actively working to take his seat from him :(

However, the good news is that Greens lead Senate candidate Larissa Waters has an outside chance of doing just that.

I would give Larissa more than a 50% chance of winning a seat. The Greens got 90% of the way there in QLD last time round and there will be more of a swing to the left this time round.

I too prefer the way the Democrats approach things and will be ranking them above the Greens. I have no idea why the Democrats are doing so poorly. They came across as far more sensible when I have seen them speak in person, even compared to the two major parties.

This could be interesting:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Hanson-says-Saturdays-vote-down-to-wire/2007/11/21/1195321845866.html

"Recent polling has suggested Ms Hanson is again unlikely to secure a Queensland Senate seat, with Labor tipped to pick up three spots, the Liberals two and the Nationals, Australian Greens and Australian Democrats fighting it out for the sixth seat.

freediver: "Recent polling has suggested Ms Hanson is again unlikely to secure a Queensland Senate seat..."

Damn shame - not. Hopefully she'll poll less than the magic percentage and lose her deposit.

Yes, the last Senate seat in Qld will be interesting, and I agree with freediver's most likely predictions.

Oddly enough, I'm assisting the Labor candidate by delivering his HTVS, posters etc to my local polling place. This is partly because he's a friend of mine and that the Greens candidate is somewhat less than inspiring. At any rate, everybody who votes above the line for Labor will vote for Larissa :)

The downside is that it's all a bit quixotic in the Reps - the long serving Nationals seat warmer usually coasts in on over 60% of the primary vote for the electorate.

Anyway, from my perspective this is certainly shaping up to be the most interesting - and potentially positive - election in Oz in years.

Important:
I don`t know whether my eyes deceive me but has anyone else noticed that in the latest televised adverts showing voters how to "correctly" make their mark upon the Ballot Paper,.....it seems that a black-lead pencil attached to a piece of string is being used to mark the Ballot Paper!

I was advised many years ago that the minimum requirement supplied to Voting Booths was an "indelible" (non-removable) lead pencil, which eliminated the "chance" of any alterations being made to the completed Ballot Paper, "somewhere along the line"!

I don`t know whether "indelible" lead pencils are available in the community any more, so I would strongly suggest that ALL voters take along a Biro or Ink Pen to make their mark upon their individual Ballot Papers to ensure that thier vote is not altered or tampered with .....which is easily done when "little old ladies" and the like vote "above the line"!

I am not suggesting that these sort of "irregularities" will occur, however stranger things have happened in the past, such as "disappearing Ballot Boxes" turning up after the results of the Election had been announced, etc.

As this Election is becoming a rather rabid affair between the major parties, I think every effort should be taken to ensure that it is conducted in a lawful manner and all or any opportunities to "fiddle" the system are removed or at least reduced

Actually it's got me wondering. If Labor gets a third seat it may actually reduce the chances of Larissa getting a seat because there will be fewer residual Labor vaotes to pass on to left wing candidates. Labor's third seat may well come at a cost to the Greens/democrats rather than the coalitions. Which would be a shame. I would like to see more minor parties in the Senate. It keeps things interesting.

freediver: "If Labor gets a third seat it may actually reduce the chances of Larissa getting a seat because there will be fewer residual Labor vaotes to pass on to left wing candidates. Labor's third seat may well come at a cost to the Greens/democrats rather than the coalitions."

Spot on - that seems to be exactly what happened. Bugger.

The balance of power will now be shared by the Greens, Xenophon and Fundies First. I suppose it could be worse :)

Additionally, Pauline Hanson got slightly over 4% - so I guess she'll be back again in 3 years to dip her snout once more into the public funding trough.

Tasmania was the only state where Greens will get the 4th seat in addition to 3 Labor. Looks like WA and SA will get 2 labor and one Green. For QLD, NSW and Vic, looks like the Greens will yet again fall just short of a seat, with over 90% of a quota after preferences. I think that is a massive improvement for the Greens. Last time they got less of a quota in QLD, and that was with 0.3 of a quota from Labor.

Are the Senate results in yet?

I think the first thing Rudd should do on July 1 is abolish the Senate's ability to refuse supply.

"Government by the people, in the people's house" -GW

Check Antony Green's analysis on the abc website.