The Forum > General Discussion > Climate Change - for the sceptics
Climate Change - for the sceptics
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Posted by davsab, Wednesday, 21 November 2007 3:29:54 PM
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http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
There have been a dozen proxy studies since 1998, analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes, ice cores, etc. The results all show similar patterns of temperature change over the last several centuries covering the MWP and ‘little ice age’. Most striking is the fact that EACH study reveals that the 20th century is the warmest of the entire record, and that warming was most dramatic after 1920.
The ‘hockey stick’ reconstruction of Mann et al (1999) has been the subject of several critical studies. Soon and Baliunas (2003) challenged Mann’s conclusions … but their qualitative approach precluded any quantitative summary of the evidence at precise times – limiting the value of their review as a basis for comparison of the relative magnitude of mean hemispheric 20th-century warmth (Mann and Jones, 2003; Osborn and Briffa, 2006).
McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) reported that they were unable to replicate the results of Mann et al (1998). However, Wahl and Ammann (2007) showed that this was a consequence of differences in the way McIntyre and McKitrick had implemented the method of Mann et al and that the original reconstruction could be closely duplicated using the original proxy data.
McIntyre and McKitrick (2005) raised further concerns about the details of the Mann et al (1998) method … but Wahl and Amman (2006) showed that the impact on the amplitude of the final reconstruction is very small (~0.05°C).
Bazz asks: “Are you saying that some of the scenarios do reduce the oil, gas, and coal inputs to simulate peak everything?” Yes.
HOWEVER, I believe the IPCC have “over-estimated” the hydrocarbon (oil, gas, coal) reserves available – they truly are a conservative lot! But please, look at the "reserves" Rutledge suggests.
Bazz, any lay criticism is not justified.